Okay ladies and gentlemen, you got a little taste of the Hensley Rating System towards the end of the regular season and now it is time to break out the HRS predictions for the 2008 postseason.

 

The rating is simple to explain. I combine the Cantral Rating from the Lexington Herald-Leader and the Lit Rating from the Louisville Courier-Journal and divide that by two (since there is just two factors at question) to get the average. That average is the HRS.

 

Over the last couple of seasons, I have done a postseason version of the HRS with predictions of every game and have been fairly successful. Now, most first round games will be easy to predict but others are not. I have been known from time to time to be exactly correct in how close a game will be while others have been way off.

 

Disclaimer: Please remember that this is NOT an official BGP poll nor should these predictions be used for any type of gambling. This is just one person having WAY TOO MUCH free time and loving to crunch numbers. Also, please don’t think that this is exactly how I think the games will go. There are some games throughout the six classes that I think will go a different way than the HRS is predicting.

 

To get the margin at which one team is predicted to win by, take the home team’s HRS and add six points for home field advantage and then subtract the visiting team’s HRS. If the number is positive, the home team should win by that much, and if it is negative, the visiting team should win by that much.

 

If this is still confusing, please ask me to explain better in a constructive manner.

 

So with all of this out of the way, here is the HRS for Class 6A entirely and the HRS predictions:

 

119.85 St. Xavier

108.35 Simon Kenton

107.80 Trinity (Louisville)

103.30 Ryle

101.95 Male

99.80 DuPont Manual

98.15 Ballard

97.10 Henry Clay

95.90 Shelby County

95.60 Conner

94.70 Scott County

92.20 Bryan Station

91.60 Fern Creek

87.10 Seneca

85.15 Butler

85.05 Henderson County

84.65 Boone County

84.20 Greenwood

83.75 Lafayette

82.60 Meade County

82.20 Pleasure Ridge Park

81.35 Eastern

79.75 George Rogers Clark

79.20 Nelson County

77.45 Apollo

76.85 Central Hardin

74.50 Graves County

72.35 North Hardin

72.10 Tates Creek

69.20 Campbell County

68.35 Madison Central

64.40 Daviess County

59.60 Cooper

58.90 Paul L. Dunbar

53.85 Southern

46.90 Marshall County

45.45 Muhlenburg County

 

 

Region 1

(4) Central Hardin @ (1) Henderson Co. - HC by 14.2

(3) Apollo @ (2) Meade Co. - MC by 11.15

(4) Muhlenberg Co. @ (1) Greenwood - GHS by 45.75

(3) Nelsom Co. @ (2) Graves Co. - GC by 1.3

Region 2

(4) Boone Co. @ (1) St. Xavier - X by 41.2

(3) Pleasure Ridge Park @ (2) Ryle - RHS by 27.1

(4) Butler @ (1) Simon Kenton - SK by 29.2

(3) Conner @ (2) duPont Manual - M by 10.2

Region 3

(4) Eastern @ (1) Male - H by 26.6

(3) Fern Creek @ (2) Ballard - BHS by 11.55

(4) Southern @ (1) Trinity - T by 59.95

(3) Seneca @ (2) Shelby Co. - SC by 14.2

Region 4

(4) Madison Central @ (1) Bryan Station - BS by 29.85

(3) Lafayette @ (2) Henry Clay - HC by 19.35

(4) Paul L. Dunbar @ (1) George Rogers Clark - GRC by 26.85

(3) Tates Creek @ (2) Scott Co. - SC by 28.6

Thanks for putting this out. It's really interesting, as it has been every year. :thumb:

 

One question I have for you, however, is how can Male be ranked above Ballard? The Bruins beat Male 7-3 head-to-head, and lost to #1 St. X. by a much less magin (35-6 vs. 62-21). The only advantage I can see for Male is that they beat 3A #1 Central 47-35, while Ballard lost to them by 32-29. :confused:

Thanks for putting this out. It's really interesting, as it has been every year. :thumb:

 

One question I have for you, however, is how can Male be ranked above Ballard? The Bruins beat Male 7-3 head-to-head, and lost to #1 St. X. by a much less magin (35-6 vs. 62-21). The only advantage I can see for Male is that they beat 3A #1 Central 47-35, while Ballard lost to them by 32-29. :confused:

 

 

The numbers that I put out are the average of the two power rankings known throughout the state - Courier-Journal's Litkenhous Ratings and Heral-Leader's Cantrall Rankings. If there is a problem with the rankings, then it stems from the numbers that are put out by those two publications.

Edited November 6, 200916 yr by statmanhensley

The numbers that I put out are the average of the two power rankings known throughout the state - Courier-Journal's Litkenhous Ratings and Heral-Leader's Cantrall Rankings. If there is a problem with the rankings, then it stems from the numbers that are put oput by those two publications.

 

Thanks for the response. :thumb:

 

I wasn't trying to get you to reveal your secret recipe. :lol: :sssh: :lol:

Thanks for the response. :thumb:

 

I wasn't trying to get you to reveal your secret recipe. :lol: :sssh: :lol:

 

 

Oh its no secret...I actually told it in the initial post. lol.