Beechwood at Covington Catholic Predictions/Updates

[Colonels_Wear_Blue]

Did you know if you walked from Beechwood to Covington Catholic, it's the same distance as almost exactly 40 fields? And as the crow flies, it's almost exactly 30 football field lengths from the center of the 50 yard line at Edgar McNabb Stadium to the center of the 50 yard line at Art's Rental Field at Dennis Griffin Stadium. Didn't know that already? Well you're welcome.

This Friday will be the fifth game of the season, and the third and final installment of the 2024 Cov Cath Rivalry Series when the Colonels host the Tigers. In their previous two rivalry games, Cov Cath lost 32-22 to 5A Highlands on Aug 30 and won 47-28 this past Friday night over 5A Dixie Heights. The 2-2 Colonels also have a win over 6A Simon Kenton and a 30-14 loss to 6A Ryle from the season opener. Beechwood will be rolling into Park Hills sitting on a 4-0 record, with a 28-27 win over 5A Pulaski County, a 42-20 win over 6A Campbell County, a 41-20 win over 5A Dixie Heights, and a 35-23 win over 6A Simon Kenton this past Friday.

Cov Cath's offense is led by QB Cash Harney, who will be starting for a second time against the team he won a state championship ring with as a freshman. Harney and tailback Dylan Gaiser make for a serious amount of speed out of the offensive backfield and force their opponents to heavily man the line of scrimmage and very deliberately guard the edge. Harney has averaged over 130 yards per game in the first 4 games of the season, while Gaiser has averaged juuuuust shy of 100 yards per game. The Colonels' emerging pass game has looked heavily to getting the ball to Gaiser on swing passes and the occasional hot route, while also relying on screens and shallow pass routes to get the ball into the hands of receivers Donovan Bradshaw & Zach Brooks or tight ends Tate Kruer & Nick Krallman.

On defense, senior mike linebacker Tate Kruer is leading the Colonels in tackles for a third straight season, averaging 7 solo tackles per game and 37 total tackles this season. The Cov Cath linebacking corps is leading the team in tackles, as it works out. Cov Cath's D is averaging 318 yards per game allowed to their opponents - a number that defensive coordinator Terry Brown is undoubtedly working hard to reduce. In the first four games of the season the defense has definitely faired better against the passing game than the running game, with 38% of the total yards allowed via pass and 62% allowed via run. That's not a bad thing considering their opponent this week.

Beechwood, with 3rd year starter Clay Hayden at QB, has grown accustomed to having a quarterback who can drop 45 yard dimes. In his first four games this season, Hayden has already tallied over 1000 yards passing and he's thrown for 13 touchdowns. Looking at the 1,669 yards gained so far by the Tigers' offense this year, 61% of those have come on passes and 39% have come via run. Those curiously opposite numbers should make for an interesting mismatch between Beechwood's offense and Cov Cath's defense...but in the favor of which team?

Beechwood's defense is led in solo tackles by junior DB Brody Aylor with 17 tackles, followed by senior tackle Brody Waddell with 14 tackles, and sophomore defensive backs Nathan Pabst & Caleb Arrasmith both with 12 tackles a piece. I'm certainly not calling a 4-0 team that has beaten 4 higher-classed teams into question, especially when I haven't watched a single minute of tape on them, but admittedly I do find it interesting that three of their four leading tacklers are coming from their defensive backfield. Generally speaking, I would think you'd want to see your linebackers and linemen leading the team in tackles since they're the guys up front by the line of scrimmage rather than coming from a few yards back on the ball...so I'm genuinely interested to hear a little bit from the Beechwood crowd about how the defense has been working so well that way and interested to see how things match up come gametime on Friday.

@Voice of Reason @BrosefStalin @BWTigers ...anything that any of you folks can add from the Beechwood perspective?

[Gotigas]

The Tigers are pretty banged up. If they were healthy, I’d say it’s closer. Cov Cath wins 35-17.

[Colonels_Wear_Blue]

8 minutes ago, Gotigas said:

The Tigers are pretty banged up. If they were healthy, I’d say it’s closer. Cov Cath wins 35-17.

I heard that Erdman went out last night, so in addition to Fryman that definitely does hurt. Are there more than those two?

I definitely keep waiting for Oliver Link to get cleared at Cov Cath. It's a bummer having all of these games this year without having our top receiver in any of them.

[Oldercoach]

My concern is the gashing SK QBBrady Lee gave the Tigers in RPOs was nearly brilliant.  I believe Cash Harney is a step-up from Lee and could create too much pressure on BW’s defense to hold the Colonel’s for a full game.  With Fryman out and Erdman questionable, I think CC will be too much offensively for the Tigers.  Colonels win 30-17.  Stay healthy everyone.

[RedHawk]

1 hour ago, Oldercoach said:

With Fryman out and Erdman questionable, I think CC will be too much offensively for the Tigers.  Colonels win 30-17.  Stay healthy everyone.

What is Fryman’s injury and how long will he be out?  

[Hard Work]

I think this is going to be one of the games of the week. I am taking beechwood with a late score for the win. 

[Voice of Reason]

24 minutes ago, RedHawk said:

What is Fryman’s injury and how long will he be out?  

My understanding is Fryman will be back for the playoffs.

[Voice of Reason]

Here is the angle I'll be watching - it is almost always the decisive factor in CCH versus Beechwood. It isn't skill players as we all usually talk about. Beechwood always has good skill players. This game is almost always decided in the trenches. The fact is Beechwood rarely has the size and depth up front to match up with CCH. This year they do. Beechwood has the size and the depth in the trenches to match up with anyone in the state. When Beechwood has enough size in the trenches to matchup up with CCH, the Tigers have a good chance to win. The Tigers had the line in 2020 and should have won that game so having the line doesn't lead to a win, it just improves the Tigers chances a lot.

That said, with Fryman and Erdman likely out for Friday the Tigers lose two of the fastest players in the state from their defense. That will be a problem with Harney running the ball. I will be interested in seeing Coach Volker's defensive plan. Hopefully the Simon Kenton game helped Beechwood, with the looks the Tigers got against the SK offense with read options and QB mobility being the whole focus of their offense. But it is hard to simulate and combat speed. You need speed to match speed. The Tigers speed advantage against almost everyone they face is not there without Erdman and Fryman. The Tigers have depth on their defensive line. They can go with a speed line or a bulk line. Coach Volker's defensive strategy is going to be key.

The Tigers might turn the tables on CCH in this one. In 2020, CCH ran the ball and controlled the clock. Most teams that have faced the Tigers the last year and a half try that same plan - run the ball and control the clock. Despite the passing offensive numbers, Beechwood very well may run straight at CCH and see how they do against the Tigers offensive line and running backs Chase Flaherty and Brody Aylor.

So many angles to consider. It is very hard for me to predict the strategy and how the game flow will go. I honestly don't know what we will see Friday night but I can't wait to see it.

[Voice of Reason]

47 minutes ago, Voice of Reason said:

Here is the angle I'll be watching - it is almost always the decisive factor in CCH versus Beechwood. It isn't skill players as we all usually talk about. Beechwood always has good skill players. This game is almost always decided in the trenches. The fact is Beechwood rarely has the size and depth up front to match up with CCH. This year they do. Beechwood has the size and the depth in the trenches to match up with anyone in the state. When Beechwood has enough size in the trenches to matchup up with CCH, the Tigers have a good chance to win. In 2021, Beechwood had a fantastic line and they won the game 21-7. Very good line last year and lost 31-35. The Tigers had the line in 2020 and should have won that game so having the line doesn't lead to a win, it just improves the Tigers chances a lot. The 2024 line has a couple different players from last year but is bigger and arguably better so far. That is where most of my optimism for a Tigers win comes from. 

That said, with Fryman and Erdman likely out for Friday the Tigers lose two of the fastest players in the state from their defense. That will be a problem with Harney running the ball. I will be interested in seeing Coach Volker's defensive plan. Hopefully the Simon Kenton game helped Beechwood, with the looks the Tigers got against the SK offense with read options and QB mobility being the whole focus of their offense. But it is hard to simulate and combat speed. You need speed to match speed. The Tigers speed advantage against almost everyone they face is not there without Erdman and Fryman. The Tigers have depth on their defensive line. They can go with a speed line or a bulk line. Coach Volker's defensive strategy is going to be key.

The Tigers might turn the tables on CCH in this one. In 2020, CCH ran the ball and controlled the clock. Most teams that have faced the Tigers the last year and a half try that same plan - run the ball and control the clock. Despite the passing offensive numbers, Beechwood very well may run straight at CCH and see how they do against the Tigers offensive line and running backs Chase Flaherty and Brody Aylor.

So many angles to consider. It is very hard for me to predict the strategy and how the game flow will go. I honestly don't know what we will see Friday night but I can't wait to see it.

Sorry, forgot to include the bold part in my post above. Reposting here to make sure that is visible for everyone.

Here is the angle I'll be watching - it is almost always the decisive factor in CCH versus Beechwood. It isn't skill players as we all usually talk about. Beechwood always has good skill players. This game is almost always decided in the trenches. The fact is Beechwood rarely has the size and depth up front to match up with CCH. This year they do. Beechwood has the size and the depth in the trenches to match up with anyone in the state. When Beechwood has enough size in the trenches to matchup up with CCH, the Tigers have a good chance to win. In 2021, Beechwood had a fantastic line and they won the game 21-7. Very good line last year and lost 31-35. The Tigers had the line in 2020 and should have won that game so having the line doesn't lead to a win, it just improves the Tigers chances a lot. The 2024 line has a couple different players from last year but is bigger and arguably better so far. That is where most of my optimism for a Tigers win comes from. 

That said, with Fryman and Erdman likely out for Friday the Tigers lose two of the fastest players in the state from their defense. That will be a problem with Harney running the ball. I will be interested in seeing Coach Volker's defensive plan. Hopefully the Simon Kenton game helped Beechwood, with the looks the Tigers got against the SK offense with read options and QB mobility being the whole focus of their offense. But it is hard to simulate and combat speed. You need speed to match speed. The Tigers speed advantage against almost everyone they face is not there without Erdman and Fryman. The Tigers have depth on their defensive line. They can go with a speed line or a bulk line. Coach Volker's defensive strategy is going to be key.

The Tigers might turn the tables on CCH in this one. In 2020, CCH ran the ball and controlled the clock. Most teams that have faced the Tigers the last year and a half try that same plan - run the ball and control the clock. Despite the passing offensive numbers, Beechwood very well may run straight at CCH and see how they do against the Tigers offensive line and running backs Chase Flaherty and Brody Aylor.

So many angles to consider. It is very hard for me to predict the strategy and how the game flow will go. I honestly don't know what we will see Friday night but I can't wait to see it.

 

 

[CCHFC]

Cov Cath is pretty limited throwing the ball. If Beechwood gets them into 2nd and 3rd and long, that’s how they have a good showing on defense. Easier said than done though with how much juice Harney and Gaiser have out of the backfield though. 

Clay Hayden is good enough and has played enough to get his production regardless, Cov Cath just has to make him work for it and not give up long TD passes. With the injuries to Beechwood, it’s a coin flip game imo.

[RememberTheTigers24]

5 hours ago, RedHawk said:

What is Fryman’s injury and how long will he be out?  

When it first happened I was told it was a broken collarbone and out for 6ish weeks, which puts them in district play I believe… aka I’m sure they aren’t in a rush to get him back till a few weeks into playoffs. 

[RememberTheTigers24]

20 hours ago, Colonels_Wear_Blue said:

I heard that Erdman went out last night, so in addition to Fryman that definitely does hurt. Are there more than those two?

I definitely keep waiting for Oliver Link to get cleared at Cov Cath. It's a bummer having all of these games this year without having our top receiver in any of them.

Hopefully Luke plays.. but other than those two Chase has gotten banged up a couple of games! The dude plays through it and is tough as hell. Jack Meier has been hurt but not sure what is wrong with him! He’s a two way beast on the line and I think he’s back. 

[RememberTheTigers24]

Hopefully it’s a high scoring, fast, & fun game that ends with a Beechwood W! I’m gonna assume Luke Erdman will play and if he does I’ve got Beechwood winning on late 2 minute hurry up drive with Clay slicing up the CCH defense. 
 

One thing I haven’t seen is people talking about Cusick, Aylor, & Pabst. They have been great with Fryman and Luke out. Cusick is big and fast and has came out looking really good with sure hands. Pabst is fast and can run through people.
Aylor has stepped up when Chase has gone down at RB and runs hard and through people as well.
 

Worth noting that Erdman, Cusick, Aylor, and Pabst made up last years state winning 4x100 relay team with a time of 43.28 sec. Tigers have multiple boys that can fly!

[Oldercoach]

Erdman’s injury happened on a SK touchdown pass where he made (what appeared to be) glancing contact with the receiver.  My first impulse was it was probably a dislocated shoulder as he immediately ran off the field with his arm held low.  Just didn’t see the kind of contact that usually preludes a collar bone break.  But, I could be 100% wrong.  Great athlete.  Here’s hoping it is something minor

[The_Bull44]

Cusick and Flaherty have been leading the charge consistently week end and week out whether it shows up in the news or not, QB1 is a baller and gets EVERYONE involved on the passing end and Luke has had several good games himself, I sure hope he plays this Friday.  
 

The players that are starting to shine are skill players Pabst, Aylor, Flesch and Arrasmith.  ALL the lineman both on the offensive and defensive end are the most important part to me, it all starts and ends with them!

My take on Friday’s game for BW will be how well not only the D-line plays, BUT also the Linebackers, they have to have a great game and MAKE tackles at or behind the line of scrimmage, they do that then Beechwood has a good opportunity on winning the game.