Owensboro at Graves County Predictions/Updates

[DevilMayCare]

 

Red Devils try to conjure up black magic against surging Eagles

Records: Owensboro (6-1), Graves County (6-1)

BGP Ranking: Owensboro (#3 in 5A), Graves County (#7 in 5A)

Series History: Owensboro leads 8-3 all-time 

Table Setter: For various reasons, western Kentucky has been lacking in the marquee game department this season. That changes this Friday. After a few weeks of undercard bouts, it's time for the main event of 5A District 1. 

Owensboro began the year as one of the favorites to get to Kroger Field, and even after losing Mr. Football candidate Gavin Wimsatt, they've continued to roll, week after week. Graves County found itself in familiar territory to start the season, hanging around the back end of the top 10, but far from being one of the "glamour" teams in the class. The offense has looked pretty glamorous so far, running off five straight games of scoring 40+. For its part, Owensboro has scored no fewer than 35 in each game this year. In fact, this is a matchup of two of the top three scoring offenses in 5A. 

Graves County features one of the top running backs in the state and Mr. Football Watchlist regular Clint McKee, who's closing in on 1,000 yards on the season. He's working on six straight hundred yard games and is tied for the statewide lead in rushing touchdowns. He had success against Owensboro last season, but the yards were considerably harder to come by. This is far from a ground and pound offense, however. The Eagles are as balanced as any team in 5A. Quarterback Drake Defreitas is a top five passer in the class and has a top tier receiver duo to throw to. Markus Isaiah and Mason Grant have combined for over a thousand yards receiving and 13 touchdowns. 

Owensboro has made a relatively smooth transition to the post Wimsatt era, though the schedule has made for an easier adjustment period. That may be a blessing, as it gives new quarterback Kasey Boone time to get comfortable and gain confidence before the most important game of the regular season. Another blessing has been a talented receiving corp and highly effective ground game. Tramel Barksdale has run the ball with authority and Kenyatta Carbon looked like a potential breakout star before missing the last few games with an injury. His status for this week is unknown, but if he's a go, it's a major boost to the Red Devils.

Both defenses have been vulnerable against the best teams they've faced. Owensboro gave up 93 points combined to St. X and Daviess County, while Graves County allowed 38 points per game to Mayfield, PT, and 6A's top scoring offense, Bullitt East. All signs point to a shootout with both teams in an offensive groove and riding six game winning streaks. As is often the case in big games, look for turnovers, field position, and special teams to play a pivotal role in the outcome.

A playoff rematch is a virtual lock, and home field could be more important here than in most district races. It's a two and a half hour drive between Owensboro and Mayfield, and Rash Stadium gives the Red Devils one of the best home field advantages in the state. For that reason, expect both teams to go full tilt.

[Tkinslow]

For some reason I feel like Graves is going to pull this one out.

[Tigerpride94]

I'll go with Owensboro by 7.

[Devils Fan]

Is Carbon playing? If yes and 100% give me the Devils.

O-24

Graves-21

[Brown]

Both good offenses, I think O has the better defense.  Both great running backs and good WR’s.  I think Goodwin at TE takes O to another level.  If Carbon, Miller and Early are healthy, I think O, but not sure if they play.  Graves will be physical and so will O.   O 35-28.  Huge game for playoffs.

[FB Head]

I think Graves playing at home will be the difference 

GC 31

O 28

[Hungover_in_Andover]

Owensboro needs playoff home field advantage. They will have tons of incentive to win. Notwithstanding  they are all around solid. I think they win by 3 TDs. If I knew more about Graves, maybe I would have a different outlook, but I think Owensboro is the class of WKY

[gcbleedblue]

Finally! Been waiting for this game since our Bullitt East game. Both teams are going to score, and like mentioned before it’ll come down to special teams and turnovers. Owensboro won the last matchup due to these two things. A fumble returned for a td and a kickoff taken back. Graves defense is not as good as it was last year, but the offense is on another level.

I think it comes down to QB play for Owensboro. This is his first real heavyweight game. While Graves defense isn’t as good as last year I imagine it’ll be far better than any defense this kid has seen in his short career. 

We are going to have us a high scoring affair. 45-42. Graves hits a walk off field goal for the win. 

Going to be a long slow week.  

[Purple88]

This is a really tough game to call.  Who is playing for Owensboro and who isn't?  That's a big deal.

I haven't seen Graves County play but know they are better than most on here think and playing at home is a big deal to them as they are very tough at home.

At this point in the week, I think it's an offensive feast similar to the Bullitt East - Graves Game which ended 48-46.  But these type games can go many ways.  This will be a tough spot for the new Owensboro QB.  This ain't Breckinridge County (no offense to the Fighting Tiger fans).  Graves County will hit you.

Wish I was closer, as I'd go to this one!  Will likely pick later in the week.

[Brown]

I think it is a tough game for all involved - this will be the best defense Defritas has seen (since the Mayfield game) as well.  This O defense is very fast - I would love to see Defritas air it out and challenge O secondary.  Because I know how good McKee is - but I do know that Grant is a top WR in the state and the  other guy is stellar too.  Graves' offense is definitely top 5 in 5A - O has to get some turnovers and slow them down.  Having Carbon just playing safety would be huge.  

As far as Boone at QB for O, yes it's a tough game, but he throws a very good, catchable ball.   And he has some speed when he needs it. So far he has been on the money on most of his throws, but O will be featuring a heavy load of 215 lb. Barksdale, Taylor, Winstead (and possibly Carbon) at the RB so that will take a lot off him.  That said, he's throwing to 6-4 Pendleton, 6-3 Goodwin, 5-11 Rogers so he has big targets.  I think O will use a lot of passes in space and let those guys go 1 on 1.  O has very good special teams as well.  I see O with some big plays for points.

O will have a good game plan (as will Graves).  O will make you drive the length of the field and will give up some yardage, but they will also make a couple plays in a row and put you in a bad spot.  

[Brown]

History (Owensboro season record in parentheses) - games at Mayfield in BOLD:

 

2001 Owensboro 20-18 in playoffs (10-3 lost to Male twice)

2004 Graves 42-16 (2-8) game was at Murray State

2005 Graves 14 - 0 in playoffs (6-5)

2015 Owensboro 20-19 (11-2 lost to BG twice)

2016 Owensboro 35-6 (10-3 lost to BG twice)

2017 Graves 24-17 (4-7)

2018 Owensboro 47-6 (10-3 lost to South Lacey and went 1-1 with BG)

2019 Owensboro 27-8 (12-2 lost only to Freddie and Evansville Central)

2019 Owensboro 43-0 (12-2)

2020 Owensboro 42-21 (12-1 lost only to BG)

2020 Owensboro 28-21 (12-1)

2021 - ?  Owensboro and Graves both 6-1

 

2 that stand out to me were the 28-21 game last year and the 27-8 game in 2019 (which was much closer at half and Graves had some opportunities).  Graves was outstanding offensively LAST year - this year appears that much better.  Even in some dominant years for Owensboro, Graves has competed very good in those games.  They definitely are harder to beat at Mayfield.

 

[Bud_Kilmer]

Im interested to see how each team is effected by bye weeks and lack of competition for several weeks. Neither has had a four quarter ball game in a long time. I expect both teams to start a little slow. Graves will have to deal with Owensboro's speed and the red devils will have to deal with physicality and a balanced attack. I just have a feeling its Graves' year!

Graves Co. - 34

Owensboro-28

[gcbleedblue]

I know Graves and Speed isn’t two words you may have ever heard together before. This year Graves has speed. We have 3 guys, maybe 4 counting Goatley, that can score anywhere on the field. 
 

Speed hasn’t been the issue for this team. Turnovers and Special Teams is what cost them the Mayfield game. 

[Brown]

53 minutes ago, gcbleedblue said:

I know Graves and Speed isn’t two words you may have ever heard together before. This year Graves has speed. We have 3 guys, maybe 4 counting Goatley, that can score anywhere on the field. 
 

Speed hasn’t been the issue for this team. Turnovers and Special Teams is what cost them the Mayfield game. 

I agree - I think their offense was legit last year, much less this year.  

[gcbleedblue]

Looks like rain is going to be a factor Friday night.

I can’t decide who this helps and who it hurts. Hate that it might take away from the atmosphere of what should be a great game.