Jump to content

Recommended Posts

  • Replies 51
  • Created
  • Last Reply

Top Posters In This Topic

Top Posters In This Topic

Popular Posts

I think that everyone is forgetting about Opponents and their wins ... which is part of the reason why Beechwood made a nice jump this past week.  Will McCracken, Paducah Tilghman, Hopkinsville w

I know we are focusing on Mayfield and Beechwood but I find it comical that two teams that Owensboro Catholic beat by an average of 40 points are ahead of them in the RPI. 

There are no 6A scrubs lining up to play Beechwood. Scheduling for Beechwood is always tough, and the RPI is making it extremely tough to find willing dance partners that make sense.

Posted Images

The KHSAA needs to fix 2 major flaws, and I believe they need to fix them in this order.

1. Figure out a way not to punish teams for playing out of state competition. I agree it is tough for Beechwood and others to get bigger schools to play them in NKY. Let them travel to Cincy/Dayton/Columbus, etc to get real competition. Right now, there is literally no incentive to do that. 

2. Quit rewarding schools for playing subpar schools in bigger classes. A NKY school is way up in RPI partially because of 3 wins above their class, but the 3 wins are against schools with a combined record of 7 and 18. They'll get even more credit this Friday when they beat a school 2 classes above them that have scored 76 points through 9 ball games this year. 

If the state wants to continue to use the RPI for tiebreakers and playoff seeding then it HAS to do better. If there isn't a way to do better then solve tie breakers with coin flips and rotate the bracket. It is absolutely crazy to give a school more incentive to play a struggling 6A school than going and challenging themselves with Beechwood, etc. 

To keep it in terms of NKY, imagine how much more fun week 4 would have been this year if the Cooper Jaguars defense had a shot to stop Beechwood rather than beating up on Campbell Co. However, given the current circumstances, Randy Borchers and the Jags have very little reason to consider that game. Even if they win they lose!

  • Like 2
Link to post
Share on other sites
3 hours ago, gcbleedblue said:

So basically, Beechwood is coming to Mayfield the week before state?

No, according to beechwood being in 2nd, mayfield would travel to ft. Mitchell. 

Link to post
Share on other sites
Just now, ImJustHere said:

No, according to beechwood being in 2nd, mayfield would travel to ft. Mitchell. 

Do we think it is going to stay that way or is Mayfield projected to overtake Beechwood the last couple of weeks of the season?

Link to post
Share on other sites
37 minutes ago, theguru said:

Do we think it is going to stay that way or is Mayfield projected to overtake Beechwood the last couple of weeks of the season?

I think Mayfield overtakes Beechwood the last game of the season because Beechwood plays 1A NCC and Mayfield plays 4A Madisonville.  The deciding factor being that more weight is placed on beating a larger class school in the RPI.  So Beechwood is hurting itself playing longtime rival NCC and it will likely lead to them having to make that crazy long trip to Mayfield.  I am making a educated guess so if anyone actually knows please weigh in.  

  • Thanks 1
Link to post
Share on other sites
6 minutes ago, Toothpick said:

I think Mayfield overtakes Beechwood the last game of the season because Beechwood plays 1A NCC and Mayfield plays 4A Madisonville.  The deciding factor being that more weight is placed on beating a larger class school in the RPI.  So Beechwood is hurting itself playing longtime rival NCC and it will likely lead to them having to make that crazy long trip to Mayfield.  I am making a educated guess so if anyone actually knows please weigh in.  

I think that is pretty much @Voice of Reason's take too.

Thanks Toothpick. 

Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, theguru said:

I think that is pretty much @Voice of Reason's take too.

Thanks Toothpick. 

I think that everyone is forgetting about Opponents and their wins ... which is part of the reason why Beechwood made a nice jump this past week. 

Will McCracken, Paducah Tilghman, Hopkinsville win all of the rest of their games? Will Cov Cath, Dixie Heights, Simon Kenton win their games? Who knows? The only thing that I know for sure ... is that anyone that says it is one way or the other ... is guessing at this point. Way too many pieces to fall into place still. 

  • Like 3
  • Thanks 2
Link to post
Share on other sites
7 hours ago, gbballfan21 said:

I think that everyone is forgetting about Opponents and their wins ... which is part of the reason why Beechwood made a nice jump this past week. 

Will McCracken, Paducah Tilghman, Hopkinsville win all of the rest of their games? Will Cov Cath, Dixie Heights, Simon Kenton win their games? Who knows? The only thing that I know for sure ... is that anyone that says it is one way or the other ... is guessing at this point. Way too many pieces to fall into place still. 

Have to agree with you on that. I don’t think we will know one bit until regular season is over and RPI locks. Too many factors to be able to say. For now, enjoy the last two regular season games, get through districts again, and then let’s see how it all plays out! 

Link to post
Share on other sites
23 hours ago, gbballfan21 said:

I think that everyone is forgetting about Opponents and their wins ... which is part of the reason why Beechwood made a nice jump this past week. 

Will McCracken, Paducah Tilghman, Hopkinsville win all of the rest of their games? Will Cov Cath, Dixie Heights, Simon Kenton win their games? Who knows? The only thing that I know for sure ... is that anyone that says it is one way or the other ... is guessing at this point. Way too many pieces to fall into place still. 

I assume your posts was aimed at me and I stated it was a guess.  Yes opponets and their wins is a factor that I thought about but it did not appear to me that it weighs enough to offset the class adjustment.  That said, I spoke to a stats. guy this morning and he thinks Beechwood will have enough from the opponet wins category to offset the advantage Mayfield will have from the class adjustment.   So like everyone has said, nobody will know until the dust settles but I thought the stats. guy drawing that conclusion was interesting. 

Link to post
Share on other sites
31 minutes ago, Toothpick said:

I assume your posts was aimed at me and I stated it was a guess.  Yes opponets and their wins is a factor that I thought about but it did not appear to me that it weighs enough to offset the class adjustment.  That said, I spoke to a stats. guy this morning and he thinks Beechwood will have enough from the opponet wins category to offset the advantage Mayfield will have from the class adjustment.   So like everyone has said, nobody will know until the dust settles but I thought the stats. guy drawing that conclusion was interesting. 

No -- not necessarily directed at you -- more like directed at anyone/everyone. 

I feel like it is going to be extremely close either way -- just like you said -- we won't know until the dust settles. 

Link to post
Share on other sites
On 10/20/2021 at 3:47 PM, gbballfan21 said:

I think that everyone is forgetting about Opponents and their wins ... which is part of the reason why Beechwood made a nice jump this past week. 

Will McCracken, Paducah Tilghman, Hopkinsville win all of the rest of their games? Will Cov Cath, Dixie Heights, Simon Kenton win their games? Who knows? The only thing that I know for sure ... is that anyone that says it is one way or the other ... is guessing at this point. Way too many pieces to fall into place still. 

 

21 hours ago, ImJustHere said:

Have to agree with you on that. I don’t think we will know one bit until regular season is over and RPI locks. Too many factors to be able to say. For now, enjoy the last two regular season games, get through districts again, and then let’s see how it all plays out! 

 

4 hours ago, Toothpick said:

I assume your posts was aimed at me and I stated it was a guess.  Yes opponets and their wins is a factor that I thought about but it did not appear to me that it weighs enough to offset the class adjustment.  That said, I spoke to a stats. guy this morning and he thinks Beechwood will have enough from the opponet wins category to offset the advantage Mayfield will have from the class adjustment.   So like everyone has said, nobody will know until the dust settles but I thought the stats. guy drawing that conclusion was interesting. 

Beechwood gained last week mostly because their opponent was solidly higher in RPI than Mayfield's opponent and both teams were 2A level teams. Let's see what happens this week when the tables get turned on that. Murray is much higher in RPI than Newport. I think Mayfield will gain back what they lost last week in RPI if both teams win tomorrow.

The head to head results from each team's game each week have more impact. I think the points from what opponents and opponents of opponents do have less impact. To illustrate that point, look what happened from 10/2 to 10/9. Beechwood lost ground to Mayfield in OWP (Opponents Winning Percentage) and yet Beechwood gained on Mayfield in RPI. If OWP has that much influence, why did Beechwood lose ground in OWP and gain ground in overall RPI?

Tomorrow night's results are going to be a good indicator. I will be surprised if Beechwood holds onto #2 if both teams win out the next two weeks.

Link to post
Share on other sites
2 hours ago, Voice of Reason said:

 

 

Beechwood gained last week mostly because their opponent was solidly higher in RPI than Mayfield's opponent and both teams were 2A level teams. Let's see what happens this week when the tables get turned on that. Murray is much higher in RPI than Newport. I think Mayfield will gain back what they lost last week in RPI if both teams win tomorrow.

The head to head results from each team's game each week have more impact. I think the points from what opponents and opponents of opponents do have less impact. To illustrate that point, look what happened from 10/2 to 10/9. Beechwood lost ground to Mayfield in OWP (Opponents Winning Percentage) and yet Beechwood gained on Mayfield in RPI. If OWP has that much influence, why did Beechwood lose ground in OWP and gain ground in overall RPI?

Tomorrow night's results are going to be a good indicator. I will be surprised if Beechwood holds onto #2 if both teams win out the next two weeks.

Are you sure? Am I not reading this correctly?

 

The KHSAA has adopted for its RPI using the following final calculation:

  • WPVAL shall be .35 (or 35 percent)
  • OWPVAL shall be .35 (or 35 percent)
  • OOWPVAL shall be .30 (or 30 percent)

https://khsaa.org/rpi-calculation-steps/

Link to post
Share on other sites
11 minutes ago, gbballfan21 said:

Are you sure? Am I not reading this correctly?

 

The KHSAA has adopted for its RPI using the following final calculation:

  • WPVAL shall be .35 (or 35 percent)
  • OWPVAL shall be .35 (or 35 percent)
  • OOWPVAL shall be .30 (or 30 percent)

https://khsaa.org/rpi-calculation-steps/

Yes, but look how those numbers work out. The percentages look even but look how they contribute to the total RPI. The WPVAL is 56% of Beechwood's current RPI, not 35% (.424235 of the .757269 total number). 

___________________________________________________________________________________________

 

Using the formulas and not changing OOWP, following tomorrow's games assuming wins for both Beechwood and Mayfield, Beechwood will be leading Mayfield .74346 to .73045, a margin of .01301. In the last game of the year, Mayfield is going to get a .05 gain on Beechwood just because they play a 4A school while Beechwood plays a 1A school. That is a big gain relative to how little the other numbers change in the other categories. 

I am getting ahead of things and the OOWP might make a difference. However, as I crunch the numbers for the next two weeks results, I now think Beechwood is going to hold on to #2 by .015. The much better winning percentage of Newport Catholic versus Madisonville-North Hopkins is going to help offset the .05 boost Mayfield gets from playing a 4A opponent.  

 

  • Thanks 1
Link to post
Share on other sites
7 hours ago, Voice of Reason said:

Yes, but look how those numbers work out. The percentages look even but look how they contribute to the total RPI. The WPVAL is 56% of Beechwood's current RPI, not 35% (.424235 of the .757269 total number).  

So I will say it again ... are you sure you are doing it right?

If what you say is correct--are you saying the KHSAA is not following the published calculation methodology?

I could be wrong ... -- but I think you may be missing something.

Link to post
Share on other sites
16 minutes ago, gbballfan21 said:

So I will say it again ... are you sure you are doing it right?

If what you say is correct--are you saying the KHSAA is not following the published calculation methodology?

I could be wrong ... -- but I think you may be missing something.

Yes, I believe I am doing it right. I am not calculating OOWP. Too much time needed to run all those numbers.

It is pretty easy to see that WP is worth much more than .35 of the RPI total. The KHSAA publishes the numbers for us to look at every week. Look at the numbers in the WP, OWP and OOWP columns. The number in the WP column for the top teams is twice as high as OWP. And .35 of 1 is twice as much as .35 of .5.

Link to post
Share on other sites
  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.




×
×
  • Create New...

Important Information

By using the site you agree to our Privacy Policy and Terms of Use Policies.