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Owensboro at Daviess County Predictions/Updates


Owensboro vs. Daviess County  

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  • Poll closed on 09/03/2021 at 11:00 PM

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The city of Owensboro serves as the backdrop for a battle of top QBs

Records: Owensboro (1-1), Daviess County (2-0)

BGP Ranking: Owensboro (#2 in 5A), Daviess County (#6 in 6A)

Series History: Owensboro leads 20-3 dating back to 1998 (as far back as KHSAA records show)

Table Setter: It may only be Week 3, but based on the results we've already seen, the Owensboro city championship game may be upon us. Owensboro Senior High laid waste to Apollo and Daviess County grounded the OCath Aces to set up a battle that could crown the king of Owensboro for 2021. If you plan to attend this one, make sure you get there early. The best seats in the house will be swallowed up quickly as anticipation builds for the best quarterback duel in the Bluegrass this week.

The Red Devils rebounded from a loss to St. Xavier by blowing the doors off Apollo behind a strong defensive effort and Gavin Wimsatt's 222 passing yards and two scores. The 1-2 backfield punch of Barksdale and Carbon further diversifies an already potent offense.

Across town, Joe Humphreys and the Panthers would not be outdone. Owensboro Catholic's defense was seemingly helpless as Humphreys had a career night, shredding the night sky for over 500 yards and six touchdowns. The aerial assault didn't let up until the fourth quarter of Daviess' 56-19 victory.

Last year's contest, which saw Owensboro escape with a 42-34 decision, featured nearly 700 yards of total offense and nine touchdowns combined from Wimsatt and Humphreys. 

 

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Parm has been out for DC - great RB.  Last year Owensboro fumbled going into the end zone and had another turnover going in for score.  Also called that goofy no look pass that set up a DC score .  Really the game could have been way out of hand at that point.  But you better not give Humphreys life - he has some great WRs and wheels. Game is back at DC this year.  Owensboro’s WR are better than last year.  They did lose Tinsley but this group has more overall big play ability.  DC big up front but a lot of guys go both ways.

Owensboro’s offense is better than last year and the run game is great.  Carbon had several TDS last game and 3 called back on penalties.  The defense showed up huge to ground Apollo’s passing attack.  Owensboro’s strength is pass defense with Carbon and Johnson at safeties, Moorman, Taylor a great CB duo and Clark, at the nickel.  He is flying around making great strides.

I see Owensboro using the ground game early, establish a lead and then keep the ball in front on defense.

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This is an interesting game.  Owensboro is loaded, but I saw Humphrey's at the Central Hardin 7v7 and he may have been the most impressive player there.  Both teams will be tested in this game.  If Humphrey's can have a good day passing, I can see him keeping Daviess in this game to the end.  

If I'm the Daviess defense, I suppose I implement a bend but don't break mentality, as I don't see them being able to sack Wimsatt at all, but if you drop 8 that should help keep the ball in front of you and hope for some turnovers, which there will likely be.

I'm thinking this could be a wild back and forth game.

Owensboro - 38

Daviess County - 36

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2 hours ago, Purple88 said:

This is an interesting game.  Owensboro is loaded, but I saw Humphrey's at the Central Hardin 7v7 and he may have been the most impressive player there.  Both teams will be tested in this game.  If Humphrey's can have a good day passing, I can see him keeping Daviess in this game to the end.  

If I'm the Daviess defense, I suppose I implement a bend but don't break mentality, as I don't see them being able to sack Wimsatt at all, but if you drop 8 that should help keep the ball in front of you and hope for some turnovers, which there will likely be.

I'm thinking this could be a wild back and forth game.

Owensboro - 38

Daviess County - 36

I hope not!  I’ll need a triple dose of rolaids!

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A little history on the matchup:  

 

First game was 1955 - it looks like they have played every year since.

Owensboro leads the series 56-9-1.

Daviess won in the following years - O season record in (parentheses)

1966 7-0 (O 5-5)

1969 30-8 (O 5-5)

1972 14-7 (O 6-5)

1984 14-13 (O 7-3)

1989 21-0 (O 7-5)

1996 34-6 (can’t tell if this was an Owensboro victory or DC) (O 6-5)

2002 14-10 (O 3-8)

2004 42-16 (O 2-8)

2017 33-27 (O 4-7)

 

Daviess has only won 3 times against senior high when they have a winning record - best victory looks to be in ‘84 by 1 against 7-3 team.   The field was muddy that night and I believe future UK/DallasCowboy Kicker Ken Willis missed an XP and a FG.

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On KHSAA stats Owensboro has Gavin for 4 TD’s passing, this is incorrect.  He has 5 (3 against X and 2 against Apollo).  The X game is listed as 2 TD’s, should be 3.  Also it gave Kasey Boone credit for Rogers receiving yards and TD for Apollo.  

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Here's my take and prediction:  Last year was a shootout - OHS went up 14-0 and tried this trickery play, which was horrible.  The play motion moved to the left, as did Wimsatt, who spins back to the right and immediately throws a screen the WR on the line...picked off and set up DC in the RZ and their first touchdown.  OHS also fumbled at the 1 going in for a TD and also didn't score in the RZ before half.  Take away 2-3 of these and it's a running clock.  

Critical points:

(1) Last year, Humphries was an unknown.  They play OHS in game 2 and he didn't suit up for game 1.  The previous year, he averaged 126 yards passing and 11 TD's and 8 Int's on the year, with 25 yards rushing with 7 TD's.  So in 2020, from an OHS perspective, he was an average QB at best in the previous year.  With no tape, OHS had nothing to really go on with his new impressive arm and passing ability.  OHS was overconfident throughout the 1st half and blew several chances to put more points on the board.  OHS got the first taste of the 2020 Humphries.  With more time to prepare, OHS will be ready to go - no surprise factor.

(2) I said after watching the scrimmage the Owensboro run game would be much better.  It is leaps and bounds better with Carbon, Barksdale, Taylor and Wimsatt.  This so diversifies the offense, Owensboro will be hard to stop.  I believe only turnovers or the ref crew we had last week at Apollo can stop OHS on most drives.  Owensboro had 4 TD's called back and SEVERAL big gains last week.  I hope for a fair game called and for OHS to protect the ball

(3)  Defense - Last year DC couldn't stop anyone, which is why Humphries had to become all-world to keep them in the game. Just to name a few of the points given up:  Owensboro 42, McCracken 56, Apollo 40, Henderson 63, Henderson (game 2 ) 49.  So far this year, they shut out Meade 0 and gave up 19 to OCath.  Catholic, a 2A team is down as they also lost big to 6A Apollo 44-27.  Owensboro beat Apollo 44-7 (Varsity 44-0).  Meade scored 16 on Etown, so its tough for me to say DC is going to have a shut down  defense.  They gave up a special teams TD or 2 I believe against Catholic as well - bad news facing Owensboro's speed.

OHS was VERY young last year on defense- especially to start the season.  By end of the season, they beat Freddie D with some great defensive play.  OHS secondary is the absolute strongest point of their defense, Moorman, Taylor (who may be out), Hartz, Carbon, Johnson, Clark, etc.  Carbon has had a pick in both games so far.  The D-line is solid with Hines, Miller, Goodwin and Barksdale. The youth and inexperience is at the 2 MLB positions, which X diced up.  So the weakness right now is the ability to stop the run regularly (although they did vs. Apollo).  This is not DC's strength and Parm is out.  Yes Humphries can get loose, but not as much on standard runs.

For OHS to win:

1.) Keep the ball secure/break even on  the TO battle

2.) Stop the standard run game of DC - Hold RB's to 80 yards or less (Humphries will get some scramble yards but make them a 1-trick pony and JH do it all)

3.) Take what DC is giving you (pass/run) and execute

For DC to win:

1.) Force turnovers and you MUST win TO battle by 2+

2) Somehow limit the run game of OHS to under 100 yards

3) Establish strong run game - with RB committee getting over 100 yards

 

In the end, while both teams are very solid, I think Owensboro is the more complete team on offense and defense and can much easier achieve the critical points above.  Owensboro can properly scout and prepare for DC this year.  I don't think Owensboro shows up overconfident this year (nor the coaches), but focused and ready to hit.  As long as Owensboro doesn't lose the TO battle by 2+ and the penalties are fair, I'll take Owensboro by 2-3 TD's:

 

Owensboro 49-28

 

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