Category 3 Enhanced Risk for EKY (6/21/19) (update)

A category 2 Slight Risk Area has been issued for parts of Kentucky east of I-65. This area includes all of Ohio and parts of western Indiana. A category 1 Marginal Risk Area exists just west of the I-65 corridor.

Scattered storms, some severe with hail and or wind, are expected today from the southern Great Lakes southward into the Ohio Valley. A cold front will advance eastward into the Ohio Valley as a corridor of maximized low-level moisture sets up ahead of the front. Dewpoints in the upper 60s F should result in moderate instability by midday across most of the moist sector. As the surface temperatures warm a convergence zone will increase along the front. This will cause scattered storms to initiate ahead of the front. A complex of thunderstorms will be possible as storms increase in coverage. Forecast soundings ahead of the front by 5 pm EDT from northern Kentucky southward into eastern Kentucky should be favorable for isolated damaging wind gusts. Hail will also be possible with the stronger cells embedded in the line that becomes established. A tornado or two will also be possible.

The following HRRR Ohio Valley Radar shows the possible scattered storms. It is from 11 am to 7 pm EDT.

Wind and hail will be possible anywhere east of I-65.

At the moment I'm issuing a BGP Tornado Index Level 1. It seems that the best chance of seeing a tornado is east of I-75. According to this mornings, SARS soundings the possibility of the strongest tornadoes exists north of I-64. This is not saying one will definitely form just that this morning's soundings show that. Also, a tornado can form anywhere and at any time during a severe weather event. So everyone should be weather aware later today.

I will update whenever possible during the day today.

Thks

A severe weather watch could be issued by 2 pm EDT for portions of Kentucky and Ohio from around the I-75 corridor eastward. I'm watching closely but the BGP Tornado Index may have to be raised especially east of I-75. The RAP and HRRR weather models are showing an increase in the chance for a tornado. Once again let me reiterate this doesn't necessarily mean a tornado will form just the chance of one forming is increasing.

A category 3 Enhanced Risk Area has just been issued for portions of eastern Kentucky. This east of a north/south line from Portsmouth, Ohio down to near Middlesboro, Kentucky.

The tornado chances have increased for a portion of northeast Kentucky. This section is north and east of a line from Maysville down to Jackson then over to around Prestonsburg. I'm increasing the BGP Tornado Threat Index to a Level 1 Slight Risk for the formation of a tornado in that area. The Level 1 Marginal Risk Area for tornado formation has shrunk some from this morning.

I will be monitoring this situation closely and update whenever possible.