9th Region Week 5 review

  1. #1
    by PP1 is offline Premium Member
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    While I love the holiday season, it is nice to have things returning to normal. There are several good games this week and some district seeds will start to take shape.

    Highlands is still undefeated, but St. Henry stole some of their thunder by defeating Lexington Catholic. Cov-Cath survived a first half push by Conner and then defeated a very strong Turpin team from Anderson County. My first coaching job back in 2000 was at Nagel Middle School, which is the feeder system for Turpin. Beechwood traveled to Ryle and brought home a victory, Ryle looked pretty good and they may be better than their record shows.

    The new RPI stat is now available to us and will undoubtedly evoke fun discussions, but for the regional rankings I consider (not necessarily in this order) overall record, common opponents, and who I think would win if these two teams played each other. I also take into account home court vs away vs neutral when looking at common opponents.

    Last year at this time, it was difficult to rank certain teams. Covington Catholic still is at #1 but 2-4 are hard to determine. Rankings 6-12 are very difficult, primarily because Cooper had to beat Lloyd last week.

    Regional Rankings

    1. Covington Catholic (9-3): Eights wins in a row bring the Colonels to 9-3. Cov Cath defeated Conner and Turpin following their tournament victory over Christmas Break. Donovan Stocks was 7-9 from the free throw line against Turpin. The Colonels play two teams from the 37th District and end the week with hosting Newport.

    2. Beechwood (8-5): Beechwood stays at #2 this week. While Highlands has the better record and St. Henry just beat Lexington Catholic, I do think that the Tigers would defeat both of these teams if they played today. Beechwood, Highlands, and St. Henry are three very good teams that do not meet up until February. The Tigers and Crusaders could match up in the All A Tournament next week. Beechwood defeated Ryle on the road this week and Mitchell Rylee showed off a pair of 1-step dunks. I am as tall as Mitchell, and I could not do that when I was his age.

    3. St. Henry (8-2): Apparently Mr. Vieth is not checking his email because no one told him that Lexington Catholic is one of the best teams in the state. Wyatt scored 29 points to lead the Cru to this victory. St. Henry hopes to take this momentum to Dixie and Campbell County this week.

    4. Highlands (13-0): Last week I moved the Bluebirds ahead of the Cru’ and Highlands responded with 3 wins. The teams ranked 2-4 are almost completely interchangeable. Sam Vinson and Luke Muller are still scoring with ease. Vinson is also averaging 9 rebounds a game. The Birds will be tested against Conner and Newport this week.

    5. Conner (6-5): Conner went 0-2 last week but no one beneath has played well enough to overtake them. I know that there is not a good score to lose by, but I do not think any other 9th Region teams have had a half time lead against the Covington Catholic this season. I consider that noteworthy.

    6. Newport Central Catholic (7-5): The Breds play Holy Cross and Holmes this week. I think that Jefferson returned to the lineup. I still am unsure about anyone else. NCC has not posted stats for the last two games.

    7. Lloyd Memorial (8-4): The Jugs will probably get two wins this week before facing Newport in the first round of the All A next week. Treshawn Cody is averaging 22 ppg.

    8. Holy Cross (7-5): I consider the 14-point win against Walton to be Holy Cross’ biggest win of the year so far. They have a chance to turn some heads against New Cath this week.

    9. Cooper (3-8): Cooper beat Lloyd to get their 3rd win of the year. Their 3-8 record still sticks out so they still remain beneath Lloyd in the poll. A home win against Newport would be an example of “making a statement.”

    10. Ryle (6-7): Ryle is not that bad. They will probably beat Boone County and Dixie this week before playing Covington Catholic.

    11. Newport (9-4): The Wildcats are limping their way into a showdown with Highlands this week followed by a game at Cooper. I predict Newport will win one of these games. For their sake, I hope they can get a victory before playing Cov Cath on the 10th.

    12. Holmes (6-7): After beating Walton at Walton, Holmes has lost three games. They have not posted stats for a while, but I remember the big boy for the Bulldogs has feet that are not quite as heavy as you would think. Holmes plays Beechwood this week in a district seeded game.

    13. Dixie Heights (2-10): Dixie has played well in some losses against some above-average teams. Last year Dixie had a poor regular-season record and was about ten seconds away from a district championship.

    14. Boone County (3-9): Three losses in a row for the Rebels. They play Ryle and Cooper in important district seeded games. They have the ability to pull off a victory.

    15. Ludlow (6-6): Ludlow beat Calvary and Henry last week. They play Heritage on the 9th.

    16. Dayton (3-8): Dayton beat Villa and play the Bellevue Tigers this week. I have several memories of that match-up from my youth.

    17. Villa Madonna (3-10): Villa lost to Dayton by 24. James Thole is averaging 16 points a game.

    18. Bellevue (1-6): Bellevue lost to St. Pat’s by 40. I did not see that coming.

    19. Heritage (2-7): Heritage plays Ludlow on the 9th.
    Last edited by PP1; Jan 6, 20 at 10:56 AM.

  2. #2

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    Death, taxes, and Beechwood will be #2...

  3. #3

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    I would probably have Beechwood down a little lower, especially below Highlands.

  4. #4
    Voice of Reason's Avatar
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    I am a Beechwood fan and I don't think they should be #2 in this ranking. I would definitely have St. Henry ahead of them. I also would put Highlands at 3 and have Beechwood at 4.

  5. #5
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    I'm not one to nitpick rankings but I just can't see how Beechwood is still #2. I have no bias, I live two hours away from the 9th, I just can't wrap my head around it.

    The glaring discrepancy is that St. Henry just beat Lex Cath by 11 and Beechwood lost to Lex Cath by 19 a few days prior. I know that St. Henry played at home and Beechwood had to travel but 30 points is a noticable difference. Especially given that those teams played each other less than 7 days apart.

    I would also have Highlands in front of them as they have a similar strength of schedule according to the RPI, yet Highlands has 5 less losses. I'm not huge on the RPI early in the season but at this point in the season it's starting to become accurate with the exception of teams that have played a lot of out of state games. Highlands and Beechwood have each had one out of state game so that discrepancy is null. So given similar schedules I feel like 0 losses trumps 5 losses.

    Just my opinion from the outside looking in..

  6. #6
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    Quote Originally Posted by Voice of Reason View Post
    I am a Beechwood fan and I don't think they should be #2 in this ranking. I would definitely have St. Henry ahead of them. I also would put Highlands at 3 and have Beechwood at 4.
    Good feedback. I see your point. When trying to rank the teams there are like four different cases. #1 is very clear in Cov Cath, then 2-5 are a mix but 2-5 are clearly better then 6-11, but 6-11 are hard to put in order. Finally the bottom 6 or 7 teams are a little more obvious.

    Also, you see it from a different perspective when you are viewing rankings that are already "published" and analyzing those rankings verses a blank screen and trying to write the report. Meaning it is more difficult to generate the weekly rankings than it is to analyze a report that is already published.

    When putting it together I have my laptop open, my phone on the app, and several tabs open to click to all the schedules and posted stats. I tried to speak very highly of the Highlands and St. Henry players in order to give them extra attention because I knew that either of those teams could be #2 or #3.

    But you, @teeroy and @JDEaston could very well be right. All feedback is useful, even if it disagrees with me.

  7. #7
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    Quote Originally Posted by PP1 View Post
    But you, @teeroy and @JDEaston could very well be right. All feedback is useful, even if it disagrees with me.
    Constructive criticism! I've been on your side of doing the rankings in the past but with football. To me, basketball is even more difficult to get right, so I know where you're coming from and try not to nitpick too often. The good thing as region play hits full swing the regional rankings will really start to work themselves out. Personally I feel like Beechwood finishes around fourth in the 9th. You could probably roll the dice for the next tier of teams and so on.

  8. #8

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    2-4 is so tough. Beechwood is supposed to be good, but have definitely under achieved. You cannot discount the St. Henry win over Lex Cath and nobody saw Highlands at 12-0 before the season began, but they are lacking a signature win. Time will tell, Highlands beats Conner and Newport as convincingly as they have been, in all in for clear #2.

  9. #9

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    Beechwood will face a tough test on Friday as they travel to Oldham County. OC hasn't faced the toughest schedule thus far, but they have the size and depth to play with almost anyone in the state. Expect a tough road environment.

  10. #10

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    AP poll has Highlands at number 10. An St Henry isn't even listed in the top 20.

  11. #11
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    Quote Originally Posted by Call It Like It Is View Post
    AP poll has Highlands at number 10. An St Henry isn't even listed in the top 20.
    I would trust the BGP poll over the AP, just personal preference. But the BGP top 20 has Highlands at 15th, which seems more accurate, though teams 11-20 are likely interchangeable on any given night.

  12. #12

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    But Beechwood is number 2 on this 9th region ranking, but not even ranked in the tope 20 bgp rankings.

  13. #13

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    Quote Originally Posted by JDEaston View Post
    I would trust the BGP poll over the AP, just personal preference. But the BGP top 20 has Highlands at 15th, which seems more accurate, though teams 11-20 are likely interchangeable on any given night.
    So different people rank the regions? But the top 20 is from who? I'm confused?

  14. #14
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    Quote Originally Posted by Call It Like It Is View Post
    So different people rank the regions? But the top 20 is from who? I'm confused?
    I'll defer that question because I'm no longer part of the team and only worked football in the past. So any answer I gave would be based on football and from years ago. But you're not far off when talking about football when I did it, it's a great system to be honest.

  15. #15
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    I've seen every team in the 9th this year in person with the exception of Cooper. I would definitely rank Highlands at #2 and I don't think it is close. I also think on a "neutral court" Highlands/St. Henry & when fully healthy NCC would beat Beechwood. The Tigers are very good but like someone earlier stated they have under achieved so far this season. The question for me is how to rank 3-7 or 8.

    Cov Cath
    Highlands
    St. Henry
    NCC (when fully healthy)
    Beechwood/Conner
    Newport/Lloyd/Holy Cross

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