2023-2024 Football Realignment

[Colonels_Wear_Blue]

5 minutes ago, gchs_uk9 said:

This is incorrect about all-male enrollment being doubled. The KHSAA uses "number of males" in the school to enroll so there is no need for doubling. That's why a school like Louisville Central, which has a high total enrollment but is almost 2/3 female, falls around the 3A/4A border in football.

Dag-gone it, you're right, you're right. Lol, I forget that every time this discussion rolls around.

Correct, the columns to look at on the KHSAA's football alignment spreadsheet are the boys enrollment (1415B, 1516B, 1617B, 1718B) and the boys average (AvgB). I wish they'd leave the overall enrollment numbers off of things. It just causes confusion.

[theguru]

2 minutes ago, Colonels_Wear_Blue said:

Dag-gone it, you're right, you're right. Lol, I forget that every time this discussion rolls around.

Correct, the columns to look at on the KHSAA's football alignment spreadsheet are the boys enrollment (1415B, 1516B, 1617B, 1718B) and the boys average (AvgB). I wish they'd leave the overall enrollment numbers off of things. It just causes confusion.

What are we going to do with you CWB!

[Colonels_Wear_Blue]

5 minutes ago, theguru said:

What are we going to do with you CWB!

Just kick me outta here, haha.

[theguru]

[Voice of Reason]

One of the teams to watch throughout this realignment will be Mayfield. The impact from the tornado on enrollment may drop them back to 1A. That along with a possible coach change put a lot of variables into the decision on which class they want to play in.

[DearToday]

1 hour ago, Colonels_Wear_Blue said:

I don't believe that's accurate, DT.

The KHSAA only allows schools to play down if they are one of the three or four smallest schools in the alignment, (I don't recall the exact number of schools allowed to play down in class), AND if there is a school from the class below you petitioning to play up in class. I'm pretty sure it requires both of those factors to take place for a team to play down in class.

If you look at the school enrollment number info from the 2019-2022 realignment, Johnson Central was the third-smallest school in 5A, with both Logan County and Hopkinsville being smaller. However, when Western, Highlands, and West Jessamine all petitioned to move up from 4A to 5A, that gave Johnson Central the opportunity to move down to 4A, and they did.

You can verify that here with the KHSAA's Football Alignment 2019 Enrollment Numbers, and then by looking at the KHSAA's Draft Alignment 2019-2022, which lists all of the teams playing up in class in italics.

That’s what I meant. But before hand they had elected to play up 6A rather than stay 5A. But when those three teams played up from 4 to 5, they retracted their request to play 6A and then took the opportunity to move down. I read that from the website. 

[BEChargers]

Just now, Voice of Reason said:

One of the teams to watch throughout this realignment will be Mayfield. The impact from the tornado on enrollment may drop them back to 1A.

I thought about that also but it's the average of the last 4 years instead of current enrollment.  There were a couple of teams I was sure would have to move up if it only counted they current enrollment.  I keep forgetting it's the average of all 4. 

[Voice of Reason]

6 minutes ago, BEChargers said:

I thought about that also but it's the average of the last 4 years instead of current enrollment.  There were a couple of teams I was sure would have to move up if it only counted they current enrollment.  I keep forgetting it's the average of all 4. 

Is there still a special circumstances option? I believe at one time a team could petition for a class change because of special circumstances.

Added comment - Mayfield may have difficulty projecting the impact on enrollment or getting enough data to know enrollment impact in time for the realignment. Or, it might be a non issue if Mayfield wants to stay in 2A regardless of what enrollment is.

[BEChargers]

Just now, Voice of Reason said:

Is there still a special circumstances option? I believe at one time a team could petition for a class change because of special circumstances 

CWB?

[Colonels_Wear_Blue]

23 minutes ago, Voice of Reason said:

Is there still a special circumstances option? I believe at one time a team could petition for a class change because of special circumstances.

Added comment - Mayfield may have difficulty projecting the impact on enrollment or getting enough data to know enrollment impact in time for the realignment. Or, it might be a non issue if Mayfield wants to stay in 2A regardless of what enrollment is.

22 minutes ago, BEChargers said:

CWB?

I'm not completely positive on special circumstances, to be honest. I know they do take consideration for geographic isolation, if the team petitions about that.

With the exception of geographic isolation allowing for schools to move up, and then new schools that have to work off projected numbers instead of 4-year averages, I don't know of any reason that things aren't basically a straight numbers situation. I can't think of any other special circumstances that have impacted things previously....but that certainly doesn't mean there may not have been some special circumstances moves before.

Not sure whether or not this helps at all, but, from the KHSAA's Draft 2019 Alignment Procedures:
 

Schools should be mindful that there are several required drafting parameters in constructing the alignment that are designed to eliminate subjectivity including, but not limited to, the following list:

1. The smallest 32 teams (after playing up decisions were final) were placed in Class 1A and the largest 32 teams were placed in Class 6A. The remaining teams were distributed evenly among Classes 2A through 5A
2. A minimum of four teams per district (unless absolutely geographically not feasible). If less than four are assigned, playoff alterations are addressed.
3. The time for playing into a higher class has expired for this alignment period (2019-2022 seasons)
4. All enrollment suggested modifications have been considered and no further alterations will be considered.
5. Historically vulnerable teams (that have pulled out of postseason competition in the past) will likely be placed in district with at least five teams in case of withdrawal during alignment (to prevent byes in postseason)
6. Suggested changes should be supported by documentable travel concerns with reasonable alternative solutions that do not conflict with other parameters (such as teams in a district)
7. Competition concerns due to past or current success by opponents will not be considered.
8. Comments issued with requested changes should concern solely the member school making the request. Comments requesting third party changes (i.e. School A requesting School B to change) will not be considered at this point.
9. Schools requesting multiple changes that include the responding school should ensure collaboration with all impacted schools

Please feel free to direct any other questions to the Commissioner’s at the KHSAA offices.

[Colonels_Wear_Blue]

The KHSAA Board Of Control has their regularly scheduled meeting tomorrow in Lexington, so I would guess there's a good chance we may hear something soon-ish regarding the forthcoming draft of the 2023-2026 alignment following that meeting.

KHSAA Board of Control January 19, 2022 Work Session | YouTube

KHSAA Board of Control January 19, 2022 Full Meeting | YouTube

[ATLCat]

One other key school I haven't seen mentioned is I would say there is a very noticeable chance you may see Belfry dropping down to 2A.

They were the 7th smallest 3A school on a downward trajectory on the latest alignment and have only lost more students since. Roughly the cutoff line between 2A & 3A was right around 600 enrollment... Belfry has since fallen below the 600 line.

In this year's Championship Belfry had a published enrollment of 579. Obviously, male enrollment is the key.. but this could be a big development for the Class 2A scene.

Also on the 2A front, Pikeville is going to be close to the line of moving up to 2A as well. They were one of the larger 1A schools and their enrollment for what I gather has stayed pretty consistent over the past four years. If there are a handful of the more rural 2A schools that have lost enrollment, this could be an interesting development.

Suffice to say, if both Belfry and Pikeville end up 2A it really creates an interesting new dynamic in that class.

[theguru]

Just now, ATLCat said:

One other key school I haven't seen mentioned is I would say there is a very noticeable chance you may see Belfry dropping down to 2A.

They were the 7th smallest 3A school on a downward trajectory on the latest alignment and have only lost more students since. Roughly the cutoff line between 2A & 3A was right around 600 enrollment... Belfry has since fallen below the 600 line.

In this year's Championship Belfry had a published enrollment of 579. Obviously, male enrollment is the key.. but this could be a big development for the Class 2A scene.

Also on the 2A front, Pikeville is going to be close to the line of moving up to 2A as well. They were one of the larger 1A schools and their enrollment for what I gather has stayed pretty consistent over the past four years. If there are a handful of the more rural 2A schools that have lost enrollment, this could be an interesting development.

Suffice to say, if both Belfry and Pikeville end up 2A it really creates an interesting new dynamic in that class.

A new dynamic is needed, right now it looks like LCA and Beechwood and no one else. 

[Voice of Reason]

24 minutes ago, theguru said:

A new dynamic is needed, right now it looks like LCA and Beechwood and no one else. 

I don't buy that. Yes, that is true the last couple years, especially last year. Both teams lose a lot. Mayfield should be in the mix this coming year depending on tornado impact. We have seen other teams as well. Somerset won the title in 2019 over Mayfield. Neither Beechwood nor LCA made the title game. Things can change fast in high school football.

[theguru]

1 minute ago, Voice of Reason said:

I don't buy that. Yes, that is true the last couple years, especially last year. Both teams lose a lot. Mayfield should be in the mix this coming year depending on tornado impact. We have seen other teams as well. Somerset won the title in 2019 over Mayfield. Neither Beechwood nor LCA made the title game. Things can change fast in high school football.

I am selling that until proven otherwise.