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BGP Severe Weather Alert Day (5/3-7/21)

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I'm issuing a Severe Weather Alert for later this evening into the day on Tuesday. The Storm Prediction Center has increased the threat level for a majority of Kentucky. Portions of Kentucky west of I-65 is now under a Category 3 Enhanced Risk Area. East of I-65 the majority of Kentucky is under a Category 2 Slight Risk Area while eastern Kentucky is covered by a Category 1 Marginal Risk Area. Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected across portions of the Ohio Valley later tonight into the morning hours on Tuesday. The possibility for severe wind gusts, hail, and tornadoes will accompany these storms. The greatest risk appears to be in western Kentucky.

KY_swody1.thumb.png.ae9b8b0e4a3b3cc5a18355b97fbe655e.png

 

day1probotlk_1200_wind.gif.d6f538ee29cd192893d7be6f7ff79ad4.gif

 

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The storms should be firing up in western Kentucky around 10 pm EST tonight and then move in an easterly direction across Kentucky. The storms should be approaching the northern Kentucky area around 7 am EST Tuesday.

 

floop-hrrr-2021050300.refcmp.us_ov.gif.804c0146ca06d454ebebd9cb62fb3d6d.gif

 

Since this activity will happen during the overnight hours everyone should have a way to be alerted to any possible watch or warning issued for your area. There is a possibility that some could see some more storms Tuesday afternoon.

 

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The Storm Prediction Center has retracted the category 3 Enhanced Risk Area in Kentucky. It now only included western Kentucky. A category 2 Slight Risk Area covers a section of Kentucky from around Madisonville to I-75. East of I-75 is covered by a category 1 Marginal Risk Area.

KY_swody1.thumb.png.a796737f26c0d1aa7d3b4692bfe31af2.png

 

The greatest threat for severe storms starting late tonight in western Kentucky and progresses till the early morning hours for the rest of the state. Very large hail, tornadoes a couple of which could be strong and intense damaging winds. If I had to put a time on the possible storm development starting in western Kentucky I would say around 11 pm CST. 

 

The HRRR radar is from 12 am EST tonight till 2 pm EST Tuesday.

 

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Since this will be an overnight event, have a way to get notification of any storm warnings

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Be mindful of lightning if/when a strong storm moves through your area. I know of one house set on fire in Bowling Green after a lightning strike. 

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Portions of Kentucky west of I-65 are once again in a category 2 Slight Risk Area for scattered strong to severe storms later today. East of I-65 is under a category 1 Marginal Risk Area.

Partial clearing is underway ahead of the mid-level trough  over the Ozarks. This should contribute to sufficient recovery for a  threat of isolated to scattered large hail and damaging winds  for most of Kentucky later today.

KY_swody1.thumb.png.a9948c35d03ff343ca866b6677c81d02.png

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Isolated storms should start firing up in western Kentucky in the next hour or so. They will progress in an easterly direction across the state. With the clearing that is ongoing now the storms that do form may be a little stronger than first anticipated. The storms should start losing some steam as the evening wears on.  Look for damaging wind and isolated large hail and a possible tornado or two in the stronger storms. The following simulations are from 3 pm EST to 11 pm EST tonight.

HRRR Radarfloop-hrrr-2021050416.refcmp.us_ov.gif.fad2ee3a2f1e3ce7e792a8a1f83aa2e7.gif

 

EHI conditions for storms to develop

floop-hrrr-2021050416.ehi03.us_ov.gif.c41efcf283680a0baebf1a34a8fd9f82.gif

 

Tornado

floop-hrrr-2021050416_stp.us_ov.gif.867001499a6a66a994375a35a18f8b1f.gif

 

Keep alert later today for possible storms in your area.

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I appreciate everything you do for us, @nWo, but you just made me think we were in for something just shy of the apocalypse.  I read your dates in the for possible severe weather in the heading as May 3rd (5/3) to July 21st (7/21).  I thought, this is going to be a long summer.  😄

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1 hour ago, CincySportsFan said:

I appreciate everything you do for us, @nWo, but you just made me think we were in for something just shy of the apocalypse.  I read your dates in the for possible severe weather in the heading as May 3rd (5/3) to July 21st (7/21).  I thought, this is going to be a long summer.  😄

That should have  been 5/3-4/21. Meaning yesterday and today.

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