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theguru

Flooding

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Hey @nWo/anyone as all the snow melts and some rain is in the forecast later this week will there be any flooding in Kentucky and/or any issues with river levels?

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3 hours ago, theguru said:

Hey @nWo/anyone as all the snow melts and some rain is in the forecast later this week will there be any flooding in Kentucky and/or any issues with river levels?

Look for flooding issues starting Sunday through Monday or Tuesday. The real heavy rain is not forecast to move in till Sunday. At this time, I'd say those around and south of the Cumberland Parkway are looking at some definite  flooding issues. They could get 2-5 inches of rain by the time the rain moves out on Monday. From I-64 down to the Cumberland 1-3 inches. The amounts increase the further south you go. 

I'll post all the details later today.

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The current Ohio River forecast in Cincinnati is 35.2' by late Friday/early Saturday (2/27).  That is probably a fluid situation (pun intended).

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Nothing significant in Louisville through at least the end of the week, I'll keep an eye on it. 

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54 minutes ago, TheDeuce said:

Nothing significant in Louisville through at least the end of the week, I'll keep an eye on it. 

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Same website that I was using!

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We were just discussing this last week, after seeing the temps were supposed to warm up this week.  Given the amount of snow Kentucky has had on the ground for the past couple of weeks, I would think the Mississippi could really have some issues from everything the Ohio River will dump into it.

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Flooding will be a good possibility starting on Sunday. An initial batch of rain will move in on Saturday and then there will be a break until Sunday. That is when the heaviest rain will be possible starting on Sunday and last into the day on Monday. The models are showing a general 2-5 inches of rain will be possible. Mainly south of I-64 with the heaviest amounts the further south you go towards the Tennessee border. One thing to note is the Euro and Canadian are only updated every twelve hours while the GFS is every 6 hours. Some are behind the GFS.

Let's look at the GFS. First the radar. It is from Saturday at 4 am EST to Monday at 10 am EST

floop-gfs-2021022318.prateptype_cat.us_ov.gif.e59e1f640059283a4f09a964a5e97fbb.gif

 

Next the EURO. It covers the time period from 1 am EST Saturday morning to 7 am EST Monday morning.

floop-ecmwf_full-2021022312.prateptype_cat_ecmwf.us_ov.gif.d5531ea311acd2f292194c040aa2cb45.gif

 

Last the Canadian and it covers the from 7 am EST Friday morning to 1 pm EST Monday.

floop-gdps-2021022312.prateptype.us_ov.gif.3b1cd696073ca900947662daf6a205d9.gif

 

Now for what each model is showing for possible accumulations.

The GFS

gfs.thumb.png.f738f6172d592678c73184bd3a8995a5.png

 

The EURO

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The Canadian

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As everyone can see there is still some uncertainty to the exact timing, track and amounts. Some look for some changes as we get closer. One more thing. The Weather Prediction Center in the 3-7 day hazards outlook has Kentucky receiving heavy rain this weekend.

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2 hours ago, TheDeuce said:

Nothing significant in Louisville through at least the end of the week, I'll keep an eye on it. 

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For now most of the heaviest rain will be south of I-64 with the heaviest accumulations in southern Kentucky. 

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11 minutes ago, nWo said:

For now most of the heaviest rain will be south of I-64 with the heaviest accumulations in southern Kentucky. 

What about the Ohio River @nWo?

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1 minute ago, theguru said:

What about the Ohio River @nWo?

Right now I don't think it will be much of a problem because the track the models are showing show only around around 1 inch of rain. Of course that could change if the model shifts the track northward. 

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Ohio River in Louisville expected to go into minor flood stage by Tuesday evening. 
 

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Cincinnati is looking to have minor flooding by Wednesday or Thursday.

 

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I drove past Pioneer Park in NKY this evening (around 5PM) and it looked like the creek had already flooded the park and then receded again.  I'm sure with the rain moving through it will rise again.

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Kentucky River at the Frankfort locks will be just below major flood stage by Tuesday evening and crest sometime on Wednesday.

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Ohio River in Cincy going into moderate flood stage early Thursday morning.

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