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nWo

Let's do it again late Sunday into Monday

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This is the theme for the next system that could affect our area. Much of the same of what we just went through. Snow north freezing rain for the southern portions of Kentucky. I'll post my thoughts in the morning. We just got our power back on.

 

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Saturday morning. Any possible accumulations look to be in southeastern Kentucky. Now for the big story. Kentucky is looking at a better chance of both accumulating freezing rain and snow Sunday into the early morning hours on Tuesday. After the precipitation moves out we will see the coldest air of this winter move in. I'll post more on that later.


The three models I'm using for this forecast all show that snow and freezing rain will move in sometime on Sunday and last on Tuesday. They differ on the track and how much accumulation we will see.

The GFS covers the time period from 10 pm EST Sunday to 4 am EST Tuesday morning. Here is what it shows.

gfs.gif.a1eab969c98eb1d03abb34293df652fc.gif

 

The European Model covers Sunday 7 pm EST to 7 am EST Tuesday morning.

euro.gif.f4a95a3e84d5d66d0d83cd8bdb0eff66.gif

 

The Canadian is the same time period as the Euro.

canadian.gif.05fda5bbfbd563869d3194742e53103a.gif

 

Here is what all three models are showing for possible freezing rain and snow accumulations.

GFS

613538479_eurosnow.thumb.png.ee1b4421cacfd9fb82aaea9c97bf675f.png

1611265937_gfsice.thumb.png.2a6b7d88a33389bcf1f4198b6f0ed2ba.png

 

The European

613538479_eurosnow.thumb.png.ee1b4421cacfd9fb82aaea9c97bf675f.png

 

1535378684_euroice.thumb.png.e9b26314567fb55099db0ba9100e8e21.png

 

The Canadian

1356446646_canadians.thumb.png.45c216ffafd5be24508fa237e43e0dbf.png

 

canice.thumb.png.ff1000e1a2e9cce75df40a6299ee82b0.png

 

As everyone can see it all depends on the track of the storm. Some maybe in for more power outages during.

 

I'll update later today.

 

 

 

 

 

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Friday afternoon update:

We could quite possibly be looking at a major storm moving through Kentucky starting late on Sunday through early Tuesday morning. There appear to be two waves of wintry precipitation to pass through Kentucky. Accumulating snow and freezing rain will be once again possible. The accumulations could be crippling for some areas.  For now, the exact track is uncertain so there could be some changes between now and Sunday. Let us take a look at what the models are showing. 

We'll look at the simulated radars along with the temperature maps first. The temps will not get above freezing during this time period. There is some difference in the timing because the GFS has the precipitation starting earlier than both the European  and Canadian models.  

The GFS is from 10 pm EST Sunday night to 4 am EST Tuesday morning.

floop-gfs-2021021212_sfct.conus.gif.256b39090ec9c5426a5d2ed446dd6b64.gif

floop-gfs-2021021212.prateptype_cat.conus.gif.2c07ead5b7138949bc2f1c0b7b266a16.gif

 

Both the European and Canadian models are from 1 am EST Monday to 7 am EST Tuesday.

European

floop-ecmwf_full-2021021212_sfct.conus.gif.89c02680d2f86cfdce9b2c467253589b.gif

floop-ecmwf_full-2021021212.prateptype_cat_ecmwf.conus.gif.76a237b4bcf7845f1747d15f5654ca8d.gif

 

Canadian

floop-gdps-2021021212_sfct.conus.gif.7f8fc22abfe626fbe213b287969fe192.gif

floop-gdps-2021021212.prateptype.conus.gif.f8864359d029e28a922f33e50a1970de.gif

 

Now lets look at the potential accumulations of snow or freezing rain.

GFS

998849946_gfssnow.thumb.png.f98d08c62c2c74d65b6ae54f8f0bcb5d.png

1560964070_gfsics.thumb.png.66a5759ae5a1fd902d72c249eaa33d3b.png

The European

1664516488_eurosnow.thumb.png.41b686c3fc8f3c7753157802ce324964.png

1307339724_euroice.thumb.png.e214b74e4656b2b42b424062dd354063.png

 

Canadian

cansnow.thumb.png.39ef4c5deec86f7eab5f3841d81048ed.png

 

1954891070_canice.thumb.png.bf1b8cc5daeb609f440859d5e4556d9a.png

 

As everyone can see this has the potential of being a major hit to Kentucky. I will update in the morning.

 

 

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Here is the latest information on the pending winter storm. There is still some difference in timing and duration. There will be one wave of wintry precipitation starting late Sunday night and then a low pressure system is forecast to move just the southeast of Kentucky. This will bring the main snow and freezing rain that will cause the most accumulations.

First from the NAM. The time period is from 10 pm EST Sunday night to 10 am EST on Tuesday. Each model is showing a sharp line from freezing rain to snow. 

nam.gif.9f15c258f3838b830cde64fd34e0e0f3.gif

 

The GFS is from 10 pm EST Sunday night to 4 am EST Tuesday morning.

gfs.gif.7fc362f3db2294784607b730cd71bbda.gif

 

The European Model covers from 7 pm EST Sunday night to 7 am EST Tuesday morning.

 

1230054862_floop-ecmwf_full-2021021300.prateptype_cat_ecmwf.conus.gif.22c98861954d6d24e313f1ca092397af.gif

 

Now for what they are showing for possible accumulations.

NAM

1758019459_namsnow.thumb.png.00b576aea2ad7fead28dafeebd480544.png

1761907667_namice.thumb.png.b2e03c5ef0af1d619bb02102c2767be9.png

 

The GFS

312850705_gfssnow.thumb.png.780e2810753b44d8b597dfb61dc0d013.png

1068543406_gfsice.thumb.png.2965588fcaac22cb93bbf924ef90850f.png

 

The European

eurosnow.thumb.png.f8f0d1f604edc7994c97cea63dc70e72.png

euroice.thumb.png.93ed1961a5b9a620d4bcb503ae9f912b.png

 

As every can see it all depends on the exact track of the system as to who will get mainly all snow and those who could receive freezing way. Either way this looks to be crippling storm for Kentucky.

 

I'll try and post my first call later this evening. Right now I'm trying to get the tree cut and off my house. 

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Just curious...which of the three models do you historically trust the most?  Or, is reality usually the average of all three?

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3 hours ago, nkypete said:

Just curious...which of the three models do you historically trust the most?  Or, is reality usually the average of all three?

With the change to GFS to 3 from 6 hours between frames I think the GFS has been the  one with the best outlooks. I'm just waiting for the 18z run of the GFS to post my first call. 

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Saturday evening update:

We have the makings of a major winter storm affecting Kentucky late Sunday night till Tuesday. It appears that the heaviest snow won't move in until sometime during the day on Monday and last until Tuesday.

Let's look at what the latest simulated radars are showing. The NAM and GFS cover the same time period from 7 pm EST Sunday night to 4 am EST Tuesday morning. The GFS has the system moving a little more to the southeast of Kentucky than the NAM.

The NAM

c5f095bd-e1ff-4bab-9776-a94a264595c8.gif.710fee1df77282906ecc86900bc61340.gif

 

floop-gfs-2021021318.prateptype_cat.conus.gif.6e790aa9019d0948c986f53d53729194.gif

 

The European is from 7 pm EST Sunday night to 7 am EST Tuesday morning. It has almost the same track as the NAM.

floop-ecmwf_full-2021021312.prateptype_cat_ecmwf.conus.gif.6874ed06e85c1757be013a171d23b344.gif

 

Now lets show what they are predicting for snow and freezing rain accumulations.

 

The NAM

namsnow.thumb.png.36ff0d9630863a408d1edeb18fbd91f8.png

 

501480576_namice.thumb.png.678b236853e7e876fb354ffb41f897d3.png

 

The GFS

1358937011_gfssnow.thumb.png.b6c5d9763051812e636c869d1df748f2.png

 

729646771_gfsice.thumb.png.cea892960b7e255d2a8045e3205e5c08.png

The European

snku_acc.us_ov.thumb.png.929ccbfb4896cbc6110e89e20dc2c4de.png

zr_acc.us_ov.thumb.png.5493f843760fca0f735b8a91bbdb3649.png

 

Now for my first call for snow accumulations. I think there will be a swath of 8-12 inches from around  western Kentucky to Cincinnati. To the south and east of that path look for 4-8 inches. Portions of southeast Kentucky could receive .20-.50 inches of freezing rain accumulations. 

This is the Winter Storm Severity Index

Sunday evening to Monday afternoon

WSSI_Overall_Day2_LMK_Day2.png.8dcbb7e89accd444b392c428b824daed.png

 

This one covers from Early Monday morning to Monday evening. Everyone can see it is call for moderate impacts for all of western Kentucky, the Louisville and Cincinnati areas Those in the Moderate risk areas could be facing life threatening and property damage. Also disruptions to your daily life. I will update everyone in the morning. One last thing. There is another possible major winter system to affect Kentucky around Thursday.

This chart explains what the categories mean.

WSSI_legend_rs.png.5d296dc969d42dcc8dbf7f4dd4169663.png

WSSI_Overall_Day3_LMK_Day3.png

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The impact this upcoming storm will have has increased.

WSSI_Overall_Day2_LMK_Day2.png.9b09558f9d960768c359af41bbdaad39.png

 

The Ice Storm affect on southeastern Kentucky.

Ice_Accumulation_Day2_LMK_Day2.png.354cae2915f436d7b125fc78951a6d18.png

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On 2/13/2021 at 12:12 PM, nWo said:

Here is the latest information on the pending winter storm. There is still some difference in timing and duration. There will be one wave of wintry precipitation starting late Sunday night and then a low pressure system is forecast to move just the southeast of Kentucky. This will bring the main snow and freezing rain that will cause the most accumulations.

First from the NAM. The time period is from 10 pm EST Sunday night to 10 am EST on Tuesday. Each model is showing a sharp line from freezing rain to snow. 

nam.gif.9f15c258f3838b830cde64fd34e0e0f3.gif

 

The GFS is from 10 pm EST Sunday night to 4 am EST Tuesday morning.

gfs.gif.7fc362f3db2294784607b730cd71bbda.gif

 

The European Model covers from 7 pm EST Sunday night to 7 am EST Tuesday morning.

 

1230054862_floop-ecmwf_full-2021021300.prateptype_cat_ecmwf.conus.gif.22c98861954d6d24e313f1ca092397af.gif

 

Now for what they are showing for possible accumulations.

NAM

1758019459_namsnow.thumb.png.00b576aea2ad7fead28dafeebd480544.png

1761907667_namice.thumb.png.b2e03c5ef0af1d619bb02102c2767be9.png

 

The GFS

312850705_gfssnow.thumb.png.780e2810753b44d8b597dfb61dc0d013.png

1068543406_gfsice.thumb.png.2965588fcaac22cb93bbf924ef90850f.png

 

The European

eurosnow.thumb.png.f8f0d1f604edc7994c97cea63dc70e72.png

euroice.thumb.png.93ed1961a5b9a620d4bcb503ae9f912b.png

 

As every can see it all depends on the exact track of the system as to who will get mainly all snow and those who could receive freezing way. Either way this looks to be crippling storm for Kentucky.

 

I'll try and post my first call later this evening. Right now I'm trying to get the tree cut and off my house. 

Oh no, sorry to hear about your house, hope everything gets fixed. Thanks for keeping us updated, we been fortunate in Northern Ky with not getting the ice so far.

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Sunday evening update.

The models are showing a little shift to the north of the track of this system. Also the possible snow accumulations have increased for western Kentucky. Both models are showing 8-10 inches from western Kentucky northeast to the Cincinnati/NKY area. There appears to be an increase also in the possible freezing rain accumulations which both models pretty much agree on. Some could receive up to around 3/4 of an inch of freezing rain accumulations.

 

GFS

2143967971_gfssnow.thumb.png.97c96e99fc8e15289ccdaca4f315cccc.png

gfs.thumb.png.1c99fdc49fbe48c1d94d7b2afd7273c3.png

 

NAM

191066825_namsnow.thumb.png.d28e5cc90962deeccb11fdf02040a2cd.png

 

namice.thumb.png.29ac292e04bd51b1fad10b8b43925ec7.png

 

The latest Winter Storm Severity Index is showing major impacts in western Kentucky, Owensboro, Bowling Green, and Louisville areas. Also areas due south of Owensboro down to the Tennessee State line. A large portion of the state could see moderate impacts while southeastern Kentucky is now under minor impacts. There is still some uncertain to the track. As everyone can see if the track shifts to the south the possible snow accumulation will increase.

WSSI_Overall_Day2_LMK_Day2.png.ffebdb941a1d8974e61ebbd4ae74f034.png

WSSI_legend_rs.png.038b98f6db752fbc1bc8f0a0f272d4ea.png

 

This is a potential dangerous situation as any wintry precipitation may last a while as temperatures are really not forecast to get about freezing till the weekend. Also there appears to be another potential major system to affect Kentucky late Wednesday into Thursday. I will post more on that tomorrow night. Updates on this system will come in the morning.

If you haven't already I suggest everyone waste no time on preparing for the possible loss of power and maybe not being able to travel for a couple of days.

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1 hour ago, nWo said:

Sunday evening update.

The models are showing a little shift to the north of the track of this system. Also the possible snow accumulations have increased for western Kentucky. Both models are showing 8-10 inches from western Kentucky northeast to the Cincinnati/NKY area. There appears to be an increase also in the possible freezing rain accumulations which both models pretty much agree on. Some could receive up to around 3/4 of an inch of freezing rain accumulations.

 

GFS

2143967971_gfssnow.thumb.png.97c96e99fc8e15289ccdaca4f315cccc.png

gfs.thumb.png.1c99fdc49fbe48c1d94d7b2afd7273c3.png

 

NAM

191066825_namsnow.thumb.png.d28e5cc90962deeccb11fdf02040a2cd.png

 

namice.thumb.png.29ac292e04bd51b1fad10b8b43925ec7.png

 

The latest Winter Storm Severity Index is showing major impacts in western Kentucky, Owensboro, Bowling Green, and Louisville areas. Also areas due south of Owensboro down to the Tennessee State line. A large portion of the state could see moderate impacts while southeastern Kentucky is now under minor impacts. There is still some uncertain to the track. As everyone can see if the track shifts to the south the possible snow accumulation will increase.

WSSI_Overall_Day2_LMK_Day2.png.ffebdb941a1d8974e61ebbd4ae74f034.png

WSSI_legend_rs.png.038b98f6db752fbc1bc8f0a0f272d4ea.png

 

This is a potential dangerous situation as any wintry precipitation may last a while as temperatures are really not forecast to get about freezing till the weekend. Also there appears to be another potential major system to affect Kentucky late Wednesday into Thursday. I will post more on that tomorrow night. Updates on this system will come in the morning.

If you haven't already I suggest everyone waste no time on preparing for the possible loss of power and maybe not being able to travel for a couple of days.

Thanks NWO for the updates. No rest for the weary! I filled up the gas and propane tanks. Got plenty of water and food. I hope everyone is prepared for this. 3/4 inch of ice accumulation is something that needs to be taken very seriously!

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Here's the latest information. It appears that the northern track is continuing as show in my last post. The NAM totals are a little less than yesterday. The GFS stays pretty much the same.

NAM

snku_acc.us_state_ky_tn.thumb.png.d2ce1b8a07a7c198b0285bf1b1295015.png

 

zr_acc.us_state_ky_tn.thumb.png.0c341457bcbb12180194a41dbb820748.png

 

The GFS

161391729_gfssnow.thumb.png.33224d934870eb21e5b77283bc9e832f.png

359714674_freezingrain.thumb.png.adf1315ff6702590fccf01f8d5b33f5c.png

 

So I'm not making any changes in my forecast accumulation totals from last evening.

Here is the Winter Storm Severity Index through Wednesday.

WSSI_Overall_LMK.png.a4c2dfc7a251c1596f0c7a73eec1b536.png

 

I will try and update later today.

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11 hours ago, allsport71 said:

Oh no, sorry to hear about your house, hope everything gets fixed. Thanks for keeping us updated, we been fortunate in Northern Ky with not getting the ice so far.

Thanks, there was hardly any damage to the house. I was able to fix the gutter myself.20210213_160146.thumb.jpg.0f23c3b73491d0b005916d4fe20224f1.jpg

 

20210213_160215.thumb.jpg.6e1562cfaef2866ffa4792ccc6aec254.jpg

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We are experiencing sleet/freezing rain right now in Richmond.

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