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Hurricane Delta

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This bad boy could be a problem. Louisiana is getting shelled this year.

 

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This is now Tropical Storm Delta and could have some effects on Kentucky by the weekend or early next week. 

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At 1100 AM EDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Delta was
located near latitude 16.4 North, longitude 78.6 West. Delta is
moving toward the west near 7 mph (11 km/h), and a turn toward the 
west-northwest is forecast later today.  A faster northwestward 
motion is expected on Tuesday and Wednesday.  On the forecast 
track, the center of Delta is expected to move away from Jamaica 
later today, move near or over the Cayman Islands early Tuesday, 
and approach western Cuba Tuesday afternoon or evening. Delta is 
forecast to move into the southeastern Gulf of Mexico Tuesday 
night, and be over the south-central Gulf of Mexico on Wednesday. 

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 45 mph (75 km/h) 
with higher gusts.  Additional strengthening is expected during the
next few days, and Delta is expected to become a hurricane on 
Tuesday before it nears western Cuba. 

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches).

 

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It's possible that Delta could become a category 4 hurricane as shown Model Intensity Guidance chart below. Most models are agreeing on  a category 1 or 2 storm within the next 96 hrs.

26L_intensity_12z.png.e477a381e00c95eccf7ca4d96873011c.png

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BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Delta Advisory Number   5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL262020
500 PM EDT Mon Oct 05 2020

...NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT FINDS DELTA RAPIDLY
STRENGTHENING...
...HURRICANE WARNING ISSUED FOR THE NORTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA...

 

At 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Delta was
located near latitude 16.2 North, longitude 79.4 West. Delta is
moving toward the west near 8 mph (13 km/h), and a turn toward the
west-northwest should occur this evening. A faster northwestward
motion is expected Tuesday through Wednesday night. On the 
forecast track, the center of Delta is expected to pass southwest
of the Cayman Islands early Tuesday, and approach the northeastern 
portion of the Yucatan peninsula and the Yucatan Channel Tuesday 
afternoon or evening. Delta is forecast to move into the 
southern Gulf of Mexico Tuesday night or early Wednesday, and be 
over the south-central Gulf of Mexico on Wednesday and Wednesday 
night. 

Data from a NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that the 
maximum sustained winds have rapidly increased to near 70 mph (110 
km/h) with higher gusts.  Additional rapid strengthening is 
expected during the next day or so, and Delta is expected 
to be a major hurricane when it nears the Yucatan Peninsula.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km)
from the center.

The minimum central pressure estimated from NOAA reconnaissance 
aircraft data is 983 mb (29.03 inches).

 

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The Model Intensity Guidance chart shows how Delta is forecast to become a major hurricane 36-72 hours. You can also see the difference from this morning's chart.

26L_intensity_18z.png.cbf085a97dac61fd05839be37c243b87.png

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Delta is now a hurricane. 

Hurricane Delta Intermediate Advisory Number 6A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL262020
200 AM EDT Tue Oct 06 2020

...AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT FINDS THAT DELTA
IS STILL INTENSIFYING OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM EDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.1N 80.6W
ABOUT 165 MI...265 KM SSE OF GRAND CAYMAN
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...974 MB...28.76 INCHES

At 200 AM EDT (0600 UTC), the center of Hurricane Delta was located
near latitude 17.1 North, longitude 80.6 West. Delta is moving
toward the west-northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h). A faster
northwestward motion is expected to start later today through
Wednesday night. On the forecast track, the center of Delta is
expected to pass southwest of the Cayman Islands this morning, and
approach the northeastern portion of the Yucatan peninsula and the
Yucatan Channel tonight. Delta is forecast to move over the southern
Gulf of Mexico early Wednesday, and be over the south-central Gulf
of Mexico late Wednesday and Thursday.

Data from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate
that the maximum sustained winds have increased to near 85 mph (140
km/h) with higher gusts.  Additional rapid strengthening is forecast
during the next day or so, and Delta is expected to be a major
hurricane when it nears the Yucatan Peninsula.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 10 miles (20 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70
miles (110 km).

The latest minimum central pressure reported by an Air Force 
Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is 974 mb (28.76 inches).

 

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It is looking like Delta could be come a major hurricane. Could possibly become a category 5 storm.

 

26L_intensity_06z.png.b7f59e723bd067a4b98f6c784efb14d3.png

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Hurricane Delta is now a category 3 storm. It is forecast to continue to strengthen to a category 4 storm. Delta will weaken some as it passes over the Yucatan Peninsula but will strengthen after it moves over the Gulf of Mexico. According to the Intensity Guidance Delta could become a cat. 5 storm after it moves into the southern Gulf of Mexico. I will post later today how this storm may affect Kentucky this weekend. 

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Senor Frogs in Cozumel is having a rough day. 

I have talked to people from Houston to Pensacola today.  They all have their eyes on this.  And they are all weary of this hurricane season.  

 

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Hearing some talk of the LSU/Missouri game this weekend being moved to Missouri to avoid the storm.

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Tuesday evening update:

BULLETIN
Hurricane Delta Advisory Number   9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL262020
500 PM EDT Tue Oct 06 2020

...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE DELTA HEADING
TOWARD THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...
...EXPECTED TO BRING A LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE AND EXTREME
WINDS...

At 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Delta was located 
near latitude 18.9 North, longitude 84.1 West.  Delta is moving 
toward the west-northwest near 17 mph (28 km/h).  A west- 
northwestward to northwestward motion is expected over the next 
couple of days. A slower northwestward to north-northwestward motion 
is forecast to begin on Thursday, and a northward motion is expected 
Thursday night and Friday.  On the forecast track, the center of 
Delta will move over the northeastern portion of the Yucatan 
peninsula late tonight or early Wednesday.  Delta is forecast to 
move over the southern Gulf of Mexico Wednesday afternoon, and be 
over the southern or central Gulf of Mexico through Thursday, and 
approach the northern Gulf coast on Friday. 

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 145 mph (230 km/h) 
with higher gusts.  Delta is a category 4 hurricane on the 
Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale.  Some additional strengthening 
is possible before the center reaches the coast Yucatan peninsula 
Wednesday.  Although some weakening is likely when Delta moves over 
the Yucatan peninsula, re-strengthening is forecast when the 
hurricane moves over the southern Gulf of Mexico Wednesday night and 
Thursday. 

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles
(165 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 956 mb (28.23 inches).

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The Intensity Guidance chart shows Delta, after restrenghting tomorrow,  being a very dangerous Cat. 3 or 4 storm for a couple of days or so.

26L_intensity_18z.png.ca97fad6d7a64b7aebb03511e8f2cda5.png

 

Notice the lightning near the eye of the storm. We should get a good looking eye after Delta moves into the Southern Gulf of Mexico.

 

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This map shows the possible rain fall accumulations. As everyone can see Kentucky looks to receive some significant amounts of rain. I'm preparing another thread for that.

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Wednesday evening updatge:

 

Hurricane Delta Advisory Number  13
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL262020
400 PM CDT Wed Oct 07 2020

...DELTA EXPECTED TO RE-STRENGTHEN TONIGHT AND THURSDAY WHILE 
MOVING OVER THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO...
...LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE AND DAMAGING WINDS INCREASINGLY 
LIKELY ALONG PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN GULF COAST BEGINNING 
FRIDAY... 


SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.1N 89.5W
ABOUT 55 MI...90 KM NNE OF PROGRESO MEXICO
ABOUT 580 MI...935 KM SSE OF CAMERON LOUISIANA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...977 MB...28.85 INCHES

 

At 400 PM CDT (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Delta was located 
near latitude 22.1 North, longitude 89.5 West. Delta is moving 
toward the northwest near 17 mph (28 km/h).  A northwestward motion 
with a reduction in forward speed is expected through early 
Thursday.  A north-northwestward motion is expected by late 
Thursday, and a faster northward to north-northeastward motion is 
forecast on Friday and Friday night.  On the forecast track, the 
center of Delta will move over the southern and central Gulf of 
Mexico through Thursday, and approach the northern Gulf coast within 
the hurricane watch area on Friday.  Delta is forecast to move 
inland within the hurricane watch area by late Friday or Friday 
night. 

Data from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate 
that the maximum sustained winds are near 85 mph (140 km/h) with 
higher gusts.  Re-strengthening is forecast when the hurricane moves 
over the southern and central Gulf of Mexico through Thursday, and 
Delta is expected to become a major hurricane again.  Some weakening 
is is forecast as Delta approaches the northern Gulf coast on 
Friday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles
(205 km).

The latest minimum central pressure estimated from Air Force 
Reserve reconnaissance aircraft data is 977 mb (28.85 inches).

 

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Thursday morning update

Hurricane Delta Advisory Number  15
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL262020
400 AM CDT Thu Oct 08 2020

...DELTA MOVING NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO...
...HURRICANE CONDITIONS AND LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE EXPECTED
TO BEGIN ALONG PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN GULF COAST ON FRIDAY...


SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.4N 91.8W
ABOUT 450 MI...725 KM SSE OF CAMERON LOUISIANA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...155 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...973 MB...28.74 INCHES

At 400 AM CDT (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Delta was located
near latitude 23.4 North, longitude 91.8 West. Delta is moving
toward the northwest near 15 mph (24 km/h), and this motion with a 
a reduction in forward speed is expected today. A turn to the north 
is forecast to occur by late tonight, followed by a north- 
northeastward motion by Friday night. On the forecast track, the 
center of Delta will move over the central Gulf of Mexico today, and 
move inland within the hurricane warning area Friday afternoon or 
Friday night.

Maximum sustained winds are near 100 mph (155 km/h) with higher
gusts.  Strengthening is forecast, and Delta is expected to become 
a major hurricane again by tonight.  Some weakening is forecast 
when Delta approaches the northern Gulf coast on Friday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles
(205 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 973 mb (28.74 inches).

 

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Latest on Hurricane Delta:

 

Hurricane Delta Advisory Number  16
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL262020
1000 AM CDT Thu Oct 08 2020

...NOAA AND AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTERS REPORT DELTA HAS
STRENGTHENED...
...HURRICANE CONDITIONS AND LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE EXPECTED
TO BEGIN ALONG PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN GULF COAST ON FRIDAY...

At 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Delta was located
near latitude 24.0 North, longitude 92.7 West. Delta is moving
toward the northwest near 14 mph (22 km/h), and this motion with a
reduction in forward speed is expected today. A turn toward the 
north is forecast to occur by late tonight, followed by a north-
northeastward motion by Friday afternoon or Friday night.  On the
forecast track, the center of Delta will move over the central Gulf
of Mexico today, over the northwestern Gulf of Mexico on Friday,
and then move inland within the hurricane warning area Friday
afternoon or Friday night.

Reports from NOAA and Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft
indicate that maximum sustained winds have increased to near 105
mph (165 km/h) with higher gusts.  Additional strengthening is
forecast, and Delta is expected to become a major hurricane again
by tonight.  Some weakening is possible as Delta approaches the
northern Gulf coast on Friday, with rapid weakening expected after
the center moves inland.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles
(205 km).

The latest minimum central pressure reported by the Hurricane
Hunter aircraft is 968 mb (28.59 inches).

 

You can see the strengthening of Delta by looking at the eye starting to form in the following:

42515353.thumb.gif.d3542262851d1bd66609bb6a91a6a730.gif

 

The Intensity Guidance chart has Delta regaining category 2 to maybe 3 status.

26L_intensity_latest.png.87deb78d503fc840998095f061160643.png

 

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For now it looks like the 203711WPCQPF_sm.gif.9bbcca5d7e76844f983b0794bb01c6ac.gifof Delta could drop a wide spread 2-4" in Kentucky as it move through.

 

 

I will be posting more later this evening.

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