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ColonelMike

South Oldham at Oldham County Predictions/Updates

Who wins?  

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  1. 1. Who wins?

    • South Oldham
      5
    • Oldham County
      1


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South Oldham vs. Oldham County in Buckner, KY

2019 records:  South Oldham (11-2) regional runner-up, lost to Bowling Green

     Oldham County (8-5) regional runner-up, lost to eventual 6A champ Trinity

All-time series:   Tied, 16-16

Streak:   South Oldham has won 9 straight

Last year:  South Oldham 49, Oldham County 0 in Crestwood

LIVE VIDEO BROADCAST COVERAGE:   7 pm ET    www.pegasussportsky.com

The annual Oldham vs. South Oldham clash occurs a little early this year, thanks to the COVID virus, but don't expect it to be any more intense.

However, there may be a few more questions on both sides this season - again, in part due to all the limitations COVID imposed on preseason practices, and in part due to the one thing no program can always avoid - graduation.

Last year, Oldham County went into the game widely expected to give South Oldham a real challenge after dropping 8 straight to the Dragons.    The 2018 game had been a one-touchdown affair and the 2019 version of the Colonels was an improved, veteran group.

Instead, South Oldham extended their winning streak in the series to 9 straight, riding one of Class 5A's elite scoring defenses to a stunning 49-0 shutout of the Colonels.

Dragon quarterback Anthony Pierce was a deadly 7 of 8 passing for 150 yards and 3 TDs.....WR Ethan Bednarczyk caught all three of those TD passes.    The Dragon defense held the potent Oldham County passing game to just 24 yards.

But these two teams will not resemble the 2019 versions much, personnel-wise.

South - gone is quarterback Anthony Pierce, who did so well in this game last year.   A dual-threat QB, Pierce threw for over 1300 yards last year, while compiling an eye-popping 19 TDs vs. just 1 INT.   He also ran for 469 yards and 5 scores.    Also graduated:   RB Keaton Martin, who re-wrote many of the Dragon rushing marks in his four-year career; he had over 1,100 yards rushing in 2019 to go with 22 TDs.   Star WR Ethan Bednarczyk, who led South in receiving with 41 catches / 766 yards / 13 TDs is gone, as is all-purpose stud J.T. Benson, who rushed for over 700 yards and 10 TDs and showed big-play ability in the passing game with 290 yards receiving on just 11 catches.    

All told, the Dragon offense lost their QB, top 3 runners (who combined for over 2200 yards and 37 TDs) and top two recievers are gone to graduation.   Likewise, the top three tacklers - Luke Clark (99 total tackles), Tyrelle Love, and Ethan Devasier - have all moved on.     In total, over 20 seniors graduated.

Oldham County - the news is similar on the Oldham County side, where the Colonels' offense loses their top 3 wide receivers - Tyler Holvey (31-647-10), Parker Caudill (33-514-9), and Gabe Vance (24 receptions).   Also gone is leading rusher Juan Tapia (989 yards rushing).   However, the Colonels do return quarterback sensation Sam Young, who threw for 1,755 yards as a sophomore while posting an impressive 24-6 TD - INT ratio.   Despite his youth, Young completed 65% of his passes.    A dual threat QB, Young also rushed for 551 yards and 14 TDs on the season for Oldham County.

Like South, Oldham has some key shoes to fill on defense, including finding someone to fill the shoes of star LB and leading tackler Bryce Rochet, who had 73 tacklets in 2019.

On the sidelines, both coaches return.   Jamie Reed (South) and Mike Fox (Oldham) have made quite on impression on their collective communities; Reed enters his 11th year in Crestwood, where he has won 10+ games five consecutive seasons.   The Dragons have gone to the regional finals 3 times in the last five seasons; they made the semi-finals twice in that span.   No South Oldham team has finished with a losing record under Reed's tutelage.   After ten years, Reed has a combined record of 92-31 (.748).

Fox starts his fourth season in Buckner, and, like Reed, has had his team trending upward from Day 1.  After ending a playoff drought in his first year in Buckner, Fox has taken each consecutive Colonel squad one step further; last year's team made it to the 6A regional championship round before falling to eventual state champ Trinity.   After three seasons, Fox has compiled a record of 24-12 (.667), and - like Reed - Fox has yet to have a losing season at OCHS.

The questions that loom are many.... unlike most seasons, this game comes up first this year, so "first game" jitters / mistakes likely will play a more prominent role than in most seasons.    Those early bumps in the road may be more pronounced due to the lack of quality practice time due to COVID, and the fact that both teams are going to be relying more than ever on less-proven players just now seeking to fill the shoes of bygone vets.   Oldham will be at home, but with COVID limiting the number of fans in the stands, home field advantage is probably a moot point.   It generally is, anyway, in this game, where the two schools are separated by a mere five miles of highway 146.

Edge?   More is expected of the Dragons this year, and a lot of those high expectations are a tribute to the culture that Reed has established in Crestwood.    Fans today don't even remember the lean days prior to Reed's arrival in 2010.    Crestwood expects South to win - and they keep on keepin' on.    Like other major programs in the state that have established a current, ongoing tradition, the Dragons show in this year's pre-season top 10 in part because status they have proven they deserve over a long period of time.    The Dragons will carry that swagger into this game - and the weight of the losing streak rests on Oldham's shoulders to shuck.

Oldham, however, has an entirely new attitude.   The Colonels are beginning to act and play more like the Oldham teams of the late 1990s and early 2000s, when the Colonels played and competed successfully with the biggest, most successful programs in the state, knocking off the likes of Ballard, Lexington Catholic, Covington Catholic, etc.   While the caliber of play on the field hasn't quite reached that level yet, Oldham is certainly on the right track.   Mike Fox will want to get his team' s focus off of last year's shocker, but I wouldn't be surprised if Oldham comes into this game playing with a huge chip on their shoulder, hoping to regain the series advantage with a win.   If there is one individual who could key an Oldham win in this game, that has to be Sam Young.   The junior is one of the best passers in Kentucky, and his mobility - and surprising speed - makes him a threat to score on any snap.   

Prediction:    Too many unknowns here to give a real educated guess.   Which newcomers to the starting lineups will produce?    Who will step up and produce a big play?    Mistakes - who makes the most?   This game - especially considering all the circumstances - could well hinge on penalties and turnovers.    Who got the most out of the abbreviated preseason practices???  

I'll make one prediction - this will be a fun game!

Special Note:   Pegasus Sports will be moving to free HD broadcasts at some time this year, BUT we are delaying that a bit.   The schools are all hurting financially due to COVID; all sports at the high schools depend on football revenues to operate.    Since the stands will be 90% empty, PSN will be helping the schools by continuing to sell the HD version of the broadcast.    We have slightly increased the fee for football 2020; PLEASE CONSIDER anteing up a few bucks to support the schools; Pegasus will be donating the proceeds to the Oldham County school system's athletic departments.     You can be a part of helping today's athletes for just a few bucks....(and besides, the HD version looks so much better, anyway!) 

Colonelmike

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I'll be posting more info on this year's personnel as the week goes by.


CM

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Great Job CM!  I feel your passion for this game reading your discussion.

Good luck to both teams!

South Oldham was a terrific team last year!

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Moderator - I failed to add a poll.   Would it be possible for you to add one for us?  

thanks!

 

CM

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Wow!    Huge game out of the gate for OC and SO ....and the crickets are chirping here?   

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It seemed like Martin, Bednarczyk, Benson, and Pierce were at South Oldham for about six years. So many important roles will be filled by new names and faces for the Dragons this season. This game, and season in general, will be a test of South Oldham's program depth and the coaching staff's ability to develop talent.

This game could really go in any direction. The series was competitive for a couple of years prior to last year's blowout. At the very least, I think it'll trend back toward being competitive again.

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On 9/13/2020 at 7:04 PM, ColonelMike said:

Moderator - I failed to add a poll.   Would it be possible for you to add one for us?  

thanks!

 

CM

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I got to see the South Oldham intra-squad scrimmage last Friday. First time I have gotten to see them at all this year. So many new faces this time around. With so little practice time they looked a little raw but I expected that. 

Alex Brown takes over at QB. The senior has played JV and gotten some varsity time over the last few years so he won't be all that inexperienced. Ethan Snider at RB should be the feature back this season. Ethan is very fast, strong, with good moves to avoid tacklers. There is a new kid at WR named Estrada (I believe) who everyone is high on. He did not play last Friday so I really can't say. The O-Line returns RT Garrison Muth and RG Grayson Breshear. Both big kids who should open a few holes!

The defense's strength is at LB. Both Austin Covington and Nate Garrison return and looked very good. The D-Line looked strong and physical. One of last years strengths was the DBs. All 4 graduated so it will be interesting to see how the new group performs under live fire!

Other than knowing Sam Young is a stud at QB I know very little about OC. He can throw from the pocket and on the run, with good vision and good decision making.  He can also beat you with his feet as he is shifty, quick and fast. He is the X factor.

South has won the last 9 games, many of them not really that close. OC has kept it very close in 2 of the last 3 however. Coach Fox has the program on the upswing. I look for OC to attack Souths running game and force them to show they can throw the rock. I expect they will blitz early and often and shut off the running lanes. If South gets some success early through the air, or bust a few holes and get some good runs, and slow down that attacking defense South should be fine offensively.

Souths running defense should be good. I liked what I saw last Friday. If they can stop Sam Young from beating them through the air and keep him in the pocket, not letting him run wild in the open field, again South should be ok. Can't really speak about OC's running game yet. If Young finds success through the air and/or gets going running the ball OC has a good chance of winning. 

Colonel Mike -- we will be watching. To Coach Reed, the rest of the coaches and players--Good luck!! Go Dragons!!   Taking the Dragons in a close one 24-21.

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Game kicks at 7:30 pm ET.

Pregame show on www.pegasussportsky.com begins at 6:30 pm ET.

For those who purchase the High Definition version of the broadcast - proceeds from the sale of the HD version will go to the athletic departments of all three Oldham County high schools to help them offset losses due to lack of fans in the stands!   This will help all sports, including the non-revenue sports that depend on gate revenues from football.

Updates forthcoming....

CM

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South Oldham up 7-0. Opened up a few holes. Good runs from Ethan Snider. Alex Brown able time complete a few short passes. 

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