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Herd Immunity and Shelter-in-place policies

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If people ever took "flattening the curve" as this was going to be over by then, that was selective listening. It was an expression to hit our peak at a different metric. People do not listen, so I can see why people took it that way. I have not heard one person say shelter in place until there is a vaccine as it has been conveyed from the start we are a year to 18 months from that.

 

You’re selective listening/reading then. I didn’t say it was “over” then. I said the big phrase was to flatten the curve, once that started happening, the angle has switched to shelter in place, wait for a vaccine, etc. I have read on this site folks saying they’ll still not go back to normal lives until there is a vaccine. Listening to sports radio and they’ve quoted news outlet polls about a very high amount of people saying they’ll not attend any sporting event, concert, etc until there’s a vaccine. Pay attention, there are people advocating keeping these guidelines in place until there is a vaccine.

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If it is just about me, I really do not care. I will get over it. However, what if you are asymptomatic and take this approach and infect a handful of people, hospitalizing one or two? Would you feel remotely bad or is that just part of them stepping into the batter's box?

 

That is the fundamental question with all of this. Not hating on you, btw, but that is what I struggle with in my head and at the root of what we have been trying to avoid this past month.

 

But is it not those people’s individual choice to go out in public?

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Unfortunately so many people are showing us that is exactly what it is to them.

 

What do you think everyone should do? Stay in place till there’s a vaccine? The flu vaccine has clearly shown that you can still get it the flu, even after getting it. The country’s economy will not survive with this particular shut down approach. And there’s more to the economy than just the US debt. There are a lot of retired or near retirement people that are losing so much money in their retirement funds.

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This is the key point everyone who is clamoring to get back out is missing. Your healthy, with no underlying conditions? Great. And congratulations. But if you get it, and are asymptomatic, you could spread to everyone you come in contact with. It's not just about you and your health.

Another one your very wise posts, @rjs4470. I rarely get sick. I typically feel pretty good and there have been times where I was sick and did not even know it, like many us. But it’s not about me. I have 2 son’s with an underlying health condition, T1D. We have been warned that they will struggle to recover from Covid19. It’s about them.

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I am repeating.

 

70-80% of the population has to be infected by the disease for herd immunity.

 

Shoddy math---250 million Americans get the disease

 

7-10 million American deaths at the current mortality rate.

 

Are we willing to trade this many lives for the economy ?

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I am repeating.

 

70-80% of the population has to be infected by the disease for herd immunity.

 

Shoddy math---250 million Americans get the disease

 

7-10 million American deaths at the current mortality rate.

 

Are we willing to trade this many lives for the economy ?

 

The current mortality rate is anything but accurate. Current estimates at this time are that anywhere from 50-75% who “get it” show no symptoms and do not even know they have it. Then factor in the higher death rate areas stretching the definition of Covid related deaths, which basically means you’re just guessing like the rest of us.

 

So what is your suggestion to fix it? Maintain this current approach till a vaccine is possibly developed? There’s ZERO chance the current approach makes it anywhere close to a year.

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In South Korea people are testing positive a second time after being treated and released from the hospital. That is not good news for herd immunity proponents.

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The current mortality rate is anything but accurate. Current estimates at this time are that anywhere from 50-75% who “get it” show no symptoms and do not even know they have it. Then factor in the higher death rate areas stretching the definition of Covid related deaths, which basically means you’re just guessing like the rest of us.

 

So what is your suggestion to fix it? Maintain this current approach till a vaccine is possibly developed? There’s ZERO chance the current approach makes it anywhere close to a year.

 

50-75% show no symptoms, but that leaves 25-50% that have a very different experience.

That’s a lot of people and a lot of strain on the healthcare system, which will mean more death from Covid and other causes.

 

There really are few options without a ton of testing that we aren’t near. The current approach is the only option, but I do agree with you the current approach will not last.

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Early serology reports are starting to come out. If there is any validity to some of them then the mortality rate is going to be taking a rather large nose dive.

 

Coronavirus infections could be more widespread, study finds - Los Angeles Times

 

The preliminary study, conducted by researchers at Stanford University, estimates that between 2.5% and 4.2% of Santa Clara County residents had antibodies to the new coronavirus in their blood by early April. Antibodies are an indication that a person’s immune system has responded to a past infection.

 

Though the county had reported roughly 1,000 cases in early April, the Stanford researchers estimate the actual number was between 48,000 and 81,000, or 50 to 85 times greater.

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In South Korea people are testing positive a second time after being treated and released from the hospital. That is not good news for herd immunity proponents.

 

Yes, it seems as though there is inconclusive data on whether the presence of Covid-19 antibodies is enough to keep you from getting it a second time. I've read (I forget where) that the antibodies may only be good enough to prevent reinfection for only a two week period after you've recovered from the virus. I've also read that it depends on how depleted your immune system is. There is a lot to be learned yet. I have confidence in our system to handle this, just going to take some time.

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50-75% show no symptoms, but that leaves 25-50% that have a very different experience.

That’s a lot of people and a lot of strain on the healthcare system, which will mean more death from Covid and other causes.

 

There really are few options without a ton of testing that we aren’t near. The current approach is the only option, but I do agree with you the current approach will not last.

 

That’s doesn’t mean that 25-50% require hospitalization or medical treatment though. IMO a large part of the influx in people flooding Dr’s offices is in part attributed to the media freaking people out and people automatically assuming the worst and they’re going to die, when in fact 90% or more of them will be fine with rest and lots of fluids and OTC stuff to treat the symptoms.

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That’s doesn’t mean that 25-50% require hospitalization or medical treatment though. IMO a large part of the influx in people flooding Dr’s offices is in part attributed to the media freaking people out and people automatically assuming the worst and they’re going to die, when in fact 90% or more of them will be fine with rest and lots of fluids and OTC stuff to treat the symptoms.

 

I haven’t seen Drs’ offices flooded in my community. Seems like people are avoiding them more than anything.

But I’m certain there is hysteria.

 

Your number of 90% leaves 10% of people who may deal with a serious case of coronavirus. That’s millions of very sick people to achieve herd immunity. Healthcare system can’t handle that load.

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I haven’t seen Drs’ offices flooded in my community. Seems like people are avoiding them more than anything.

But I’m certain there is hysteria.

 

Your number of 90% leaves 10% of people who may deal with a serious case of coronavirus. That’s millions of very sick people to achieve herd immunity. Healthcare system can’t handle that load.

 

I think 5-10% of those infected needing medical care is realistic. And while it may bog down medical staff, it may be the most realistic path while we wait on a vaccine.

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Curious for those ready to jump back into life as we used to know it. Have you known anyone that has had it and had to fight for their life? Especially someone that was otherwise healthy and spent 2 weeks in a medically induced coma with zero ability to have any contact with their family?

 

How about anyone that if they did get it would very likely die, even though they are only in their 30-40s?

 

I think we are still at a point where this doesn't have a face for most. Not me or my family? Not my problem. That will be true until it isn't and it is someone you love fighting for their life while you wait by the phone to hear if they are still alive or not. That's the most frightening and unfortunate reality of getting back to normal too quickly.

 

One tournament basketball game in Indy has claimed 5 lives and infected many more. Two site publishers for 247Sports have had it and both went through hell and back before they started to recover. Opening things back up before there are more safeguards in place than currently exists is going to cost a of people their lives.

 

I guess as long as the wheel doesn't land on your family, "getting back to normal" is worth it.

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When's the last time the economy took a dip and didn't return?

Oh, never?

 

While the economy and stock market rebounds, individual stock portfolios do not.

 

IF you are drawing off of your IRA for income in retirement, it does not rebound.

For instance, If you are drawing @50k our of a portfolio valued at 600k that drops to 450k, does not rebound.

 

Your are now drawing the same amount off of an IRA worth 450k, which does not allow it to rebound. You take the hit.

 

If you are young and building an IRA, and not drawing off ot it, Yes, normally it will rebound and build. BUT those of us who depend on our IRAs in retirement, it is a serious, future-threatening blow.

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