Voice of Reason 7,599 Posted April 17, 2020 Generally speaking I agree with you that testing is over rated at this point because we are going the herd immunity route which means it is what it is. What is the over under on deaths if all we're relying on is herd immunity? From what we have already seen and experienced it's significantly higher than 34,200 IMO. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
theguru 15,673 Posted April 17, 2020 What is the over under on deaths if all we're relying on is herd immunity? From what we have already seen and experienced it's significantly higher than 34,200 IMO. Hard to say. The last estimate I saw that gained much traction was the 60k one but I assume that assumed a longer mitigation strategy. Just to throw something out, I say double it and go with 68,400. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Hangman 387 Posted April 17, 2020 Hard to say. The last estimate I saw that gained much traction was the 60k one but I assume that assumed a longer mitigation strategy. Just to throw something out, I say double it and go with 68,400. We’ve had 35,000 deaths with mitigants in place and you think that only doubles without them? In what time frame? Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
theguru 15,673 Posted April 17, 2020 We’ve had 35,000 deaths with mitigants in place and you think that only doubles without them? In what time frame? To keep it consistent, 2020. Honestly we are never going to know because we have already "cooked the books." Also, think about Tennessee as an anecdote, we are running about the same pace as them per capita and they went with a little more of a herd immunity strategy than Kentucky. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Voice of Reason 7,599 Posted April 17, 2020 To keep it consistent, 2020. Honestly we are never going to know because we have already "cooked the books." Also, think about Tennessee as an anecdote, we are running about the same pace as them per capita and they went with a little more of a herd immunity strategy than Kentucky. As of April 1, Kentucky had done 7,900 tests. As of April 1, Tennessee had done 34,611 tests. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Hellcats 1,367 Posted April 17, 2020 We’ve had 35,000 deaths with mitigants in place and you think that only doubles without them? In what time frame? 3 weeks. Just enough time for it to get ramped back up. Herd Immunity works in diseases like Chicken pox where mom and dad and older brother and doctor can be around the kid that has it without getting sick. It doesn’t work with Novel viruses without massive loss of life. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
theguru 15,673 Posted April 17, 2020 As of April 1, Kentucky had done 7,900 tests. As of April 1, Tennessee had done 34,611 tests. Come on VoR, deaths! Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Voice of Reason 7,599 Posted April 17, 2020 Come on VoR, deaths! More tests = fewer deaths Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Bluegrasscard 1,319 Posted April 17, 2020 What is the plan for restarting? Details. Consequences. Etc. Vigilance of individual cases when they emerge is the primary action. The brain trusts and so called leaders of the nation and state have had 4 months to figure this out. When the agendas are stripped away they had best know what is needed to manage this - if they want to. Can not offer a silver or gold bullet. But "cower in place" must come to an end sooner rather than later. The current tactics will lead to hundreds of thousands of deaths. And destroying our children's future due to over-reactive fear is just not acceptable. IMHO. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
JDEaston 1,621 Posted April 17, 2020 I've accepted that things are going to open back up soon whether they should or not. There is only so long that you can keep us "quarantined " before those that can't accept it lose their minds and riots, etc start happening. That said I've also accepted that if I get it due to having to work then I get it. We take the needed precautions to keep from getting it, as well as spreading it if we were asymptomatic. But it seems that things are about to open back up to ramp up the economy. Stay safe everyone, look at it as you are protecting yourself, family, as well as anyone else you may encounter while you're out spending those stimulus checks. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Bluegrasscard 1,319 Posted April 17, 2020 This doctor describes some practical "vigilance" and other reasonable actions to do. This is based on real world - not articles about studies that "may" show this or that. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Voice of Reason 7,599 Posted April 18, 2020 Vigilance of individual cases when they emerge is the primary action. The brain trusts and so called leaders of the nation and state have had 4 months to figure this out. When the agendas are stripped away they had best know what is needed to manage this - if they want to. Can not offer a silver or gold bullet. But "cower in place" must come to an end sooner rather than later. The current tactics will lead to hundreds of thousands of deaths. And destroying our children's future due to over-reactive fear is just not acceptable. IMHO. The bold is not true. I posted a link to a study that says actually the opposite is true. There are more lifestyle caused deaths when everyone is working than in a depression. Suicide is the only category that shows an increase in a depression and even that is not nearly as much as you might expect. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Kentucky Windage 393 Posted April 18, 2020 (edited) The bold is not true. I posted a link to a study that says actually the opposite is true. There are more lifestyle caused deaths when everyone is working than in a depression. Suicide is the only category that shows an increase in a depression and even that is not nearly as much as you might expect. You posted a link about a study done during the Great Depression, correct? People during those days had a hell of a lot more resolve than we do in this society. Was black tar heroin, alcohol, cocaine, etc as prevalent as they are today? People during those days had a better ability to provide for themselves even without a job. 1920's society isn't remotely close to 2020's society. Money and finances are one of the leading reasons for divorce. If unemployment gets in the 20% range then there are going to be a lot of busted up relationships and broken families. I hope everyone has the power to deal with this if things go down hill. Edited April 18, 2020 by Kentucky Windage Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
TheDeuce 15,260 Posted April 18, 2020 I’m checking out of the CV discussions. I can’t tolerate people disregarding so many others health and trying to justify it with the economy. Be better people. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Hellcats 1,367 Posted April 18, 2020 I’m checking out of the CV discussions. I can’t tolerate people disregarding so many others health and trying to justify it with the economy. Be better people. Nah, don’t do that. Take care of yourself and some of these folks will be wondering WTH happened. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
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