Oil back up to 111 dollars a barrel today

Page 2 of Originally Posted by Clyde We all have different definitions of "improving." I'm using the most strict definition while many(maybe you) are u... 45 comments | 1736 Views | Go to page 1 →

  1. #16
    woodsrider's Avatar
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    I will reserve judgement on whether the economy is improving until I see a trend but for March my company hit a sales record.
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    I had two meetings today with customers and they both are hiring and having a very hard time finding workers.

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    Quote Originally Posted by woodsrider View Post
    I had two meetings today with customers and they both are hiring and having a very hard time finding workers.
    Hook em up with me I might need one soon.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Clyde View Post
    We all have different definitions of "improving." I'm using the most strict definition while many(maybe you) are using a definition that requires it to be at a certain level.

    My point is simple. As the economy begins to improve there will be more demand which will lead to continued increases in cost.
    Fair enough.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Clyde View Post
    We all have different definitions of "improving." I'm using the most strict definition while many(maybe you) are using a definition that requires it to be at a certain level.

    My point is simple. As the economy begins to improve there will be more demand which will lead to continued increases in cost.
    Being in transportation, I can tell you that it is definitely stronger. Freight levels have increased dramatically over this period just last year. Now, what concerns me is that gold keeps rising. Shouldn't gold lower w/a stronger economy?

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    I work in the financial services industry .... mark my words ... the economy is NOT improving. AND ... our research suggested (with a high percentage of probability) that the economy WILL NOT improve as long as gas prices continue to be high.

    People are not paying their other bills in order to account for the higher price of gas. There is very little data to suggest that this theory is wrong. That is one thing that you rarely hear on TV ... or in the news. But .. it is very much the truth. The middle ground of the economist spectrum is at a point where they have to make choices. Two things they basically need to live: shelter and gas.

    Not to mention ... if the economy was truly improving ... pay would increase to account for the significant increase in cost of living. That has not, and most likely will not, happen. Don't believe the hype. It is almost like survival of the fittest. IF gas prices continue to rise ... our country will make a significant decline.

    I always think that it is funny when people blame banks for the current financial crisis. The real financial destruction began when gas prices started to rise to ridiculous levels a few years back.

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    Well, here's info I didn't know. Maybe it'll help us all understand.

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    Quote Originally Posted by mexitucky View Post
    Being in transportation, I can tell you that it is definitely stronger. Freight levels have increased dramatically over this period just last year. Now, what concerns me is that gold keeps rising. Shouldn't gold lower w/a stronger economy?
    When the economy first tanked a few years ago I made it a point to talk to truck drivers, that made deliveries to us, at least once a week to see how their business was. If things are getting worse or improving usually freight companies see it first. I was very surprised to hear from most of them that they were busier then ever. Most were hiring new drivers and still working lots of overtime. These all national LTL carriers like FedEx Freight, Dayton, R&L, Holland, ect.... The only one that said they were hurting was UPS freight. Their driver and salesman told me that. If you have ever used UPS freight it's not hard to know why (sorry if you work for them but they stink). I never have been able to figure out why most were that busy. I figured companies started ordering less product per order which increased the number of shipments.

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    Quote Originally Posted by quickslick View Post
    I work in the financial services industry .... mark my words ... the economy is NOT improving. AND ... our research suggested (with a high percentage of probability) that the economy WILL NOT improve as long as gas prices continue to be high.

    People are not paying their other bills in order to account for the higher price of gas. There is very little data to suggest that this theory is wrong. That is one thing that you rarely hear on TV ... or in the news. But .. it is very much the truth. The middle ground of the economist spectrum is at a point where they have to make choices. Two things they basically need to live: shelter and gas.

    Not to mention ... if the economy was truly improving ... pay would increase to account for the significant increase in cost of living. That has not, and most likely will not, happen. Don't believe the hype. It is almost like survival of the fittest. IF gas prices continue to rise ... our country will make a significant decline.

    I always think that it is funny when people blame banks for the current financial crisis. The real financial destruction began when gas prices started to rise to ridiculous levels a few years back.
    I agree overall. The gas prices started the recession and then the house of cards at AIG etc collapsed when the values of the underlying securities crapped out.

    I work with a lot of small business owners. I would tell you that they are hiring and one just old me this morning he's on a "hiring spree" (which is good for me as one of his vendors).

    IMO we will see another recession somewhere in the next decade due to the rising cost of oil and our inability to find or fund alternatives.

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    Makes sense right?

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    Quote Originally Posted by Clyde View Post
    I agree overall. The gas prices started the recession and then the house of cards at AIG etc collapsed when the values of the underlying securities crapped out.

    I work with a lot of small business owners. I would tell you that they are hiring and one just old me this morning he's on a "hiring spree" (which is good for me as one of his vendors).

    IMO we will see another recession somewhere in the next decade due to the rising cost of oil and our inability to find or fund alternatives.

    We are hiring here (and have been--even when things were supposed to be "really bad") as well.
    But .. a couple things:
    1. When we cut jobs--all we did was walk them from one building to another and gave them different jobs.
    2. When we replaced people who physically lost their job (not the people we moved), we replaced all of them with people at a much lower pay rate (which many companies have done--and will continue to do because there is a flood of experienced, successful workers who can be had at a much lower rate--simply because they have to have a job).

    The part that bothers me the most .. is that people are so conditioned to higher gas prices ... that you rarely hear the same kind of outrage that you do when it comes to things like banks and overpaid CEO's. You rarely see interviews on TV to where people are saying "gas prices are going to put my family on the street". Its like "oh well ... I have to have gas ... I don't have a choice but to pay it". And .. the oil companies realize that fact ... and manipulate that thought process.

    People will complain about banks and financial institutions and golden parachutes ... but how much investigation goes into the fact that the oil companies profits have been on the upswing for quite some time (and we are not just talking about increased profits--we are talking RECORD profits). The colusion and corruption in the Oil industry is much more dangerous to our economy than anything that the banks have done.

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    Quote Originally Posted by quickslick View Post
    We are hiring here (and have been--even when things were supposed to be "really bad") as well.
    But .. a couple things:
    1. When we cut jobs--all we did was walk them from one building to another and gave them different jobs.
    2. When we replaced people who physically lost their job (not the people we moved), we replaced all of them with people at a much lower pay rate (which many companies have done--and will continue to do because there is a flood of experienced, successful workers who can be had at a much lower rate--simply because they have to have a job).

    The part that bothers me the most .. is that people are so conditioned to higher gas prices ... that you rarely hear the same kind of outrage that you do when it comes to things like banks and overpaid CEO's. You rarely see interviews on TV to where people are saying "gas prices are going to put my family on the street". Its like "oh well ... I have to have gas ... I don't have a choice but to pay it". And .. the oil companies realize that fact ... and manipulate that thought process.

    People will complain about banks and financial institutions and golden parachutes ... but how much investigation goes into the fact that the oil companies profits have been on the upswing for quite some time (and we are not just talking about increased profits--we are talking RECORD profits). The colusion and corruption in the Oil industry is much more dangerous to our economy than anything that the banks have done.
    I'm in the "could not care less" what an exec makes in private industry. That's the beauty of free market.

    In regards to oil the companies are making profits (again a beautiful thing). It's not their fault that the world has not adapted and they have the golden egg. That's our fault as a society for not having vision or being stuck to our old ways of living. We're paying the piper now. I do not see the cost of gas going down much. It will probably rise due to increased demand and diminishing supplies of cheap oil. Every President since Nixon has talked about "alternative fuels" but we as a society are stuck to our short-term vision and steadfast in not changing what we drive or how we live. So, we pay out the wazoo. I harbor no ill will towards oil companies other than their lack of environmental concern. As Malcolm X said so famously about the climate of hate as it related to the assassination of President Kennedy: The chickens are coming home to roost.

  14. #29

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    Quote Originally Posted by woodsrider View Post
    When the economy first tanked a few years ago I made it a point to talk to truck drivers, that made deliveries to us, at least once a week to see how their business was. If things are getting worse or improving usually freight companies see it first. I was very surprised to hear from most of them that they were busier then ever. Most were hiring new drivers and still working lots of overtime. These all national LTL carriers like FedEx Freight, Dayton, R&L, Holland, ect.... The only one that said they were hurting was UPS freight. Their driver and salesman told me that. If you have ever used UPS freight it's not hard to know why (sorry if you work for them but they stink). I never have been able to figure out why most were that busy. I figured companies started ordering less product per order which increased the number of shipments.
    The drivers that you spok w/ ran w/ larger companies that were already under contract w/ many distributors. The group of drivers that were hurt were owner-operators and those that couldn't absorb the rise in fuel. As they were phased out of the market, FedEx Freight, Dayton, and other large companies moved in and picked up their slack. In '10, many of those companies parked a lot of their trucks, as rail companies did w/ containers and cars. Now we have a huge increase in freight over the 1st quarter, with a severe driver shortage and near record fuel. Prices to transport goods are soaring. The drivers that stayed in the game are going to make quite a bit more this year than in '08, '09, or '10. This market favors them much more than when fuel spiked in '08.

  15. #30
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    I'm just watching the dollar on the foreign exchange market. It's practically in a fee fall. I have a real bad feeling about this. I think we're in the eye and the backside of the hurricane is getting ready to come ashore and it's the bad side of the storm.

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