Jan 7, 19, 03:04 AM #1
Wintry Weather possible to end to week (Update)While I'm hesitant to really mention this because the models are going back and forth. The GFS is now showing the possibility of snow this upcoming weekend. It really going to depend on when or if the cold air can win the battle. Temps look to fall into the 20s overnight Friday into Saturday. With the rain that is possible this could cause some snow for parts of Kentucky. We can also see that the temps will rebound quickly by Saturday evening. I'll be watching this as we get closer and post updates when the information warrants it.
Jan 7, 19, 02:34 PM #2Signs are starting to point towards a winter weather event this weekend for parts ky. Update coming later this evening.
Jan 7, 19, 05:32 PM #3
Monday evening updateThere is as of now about a 20-30% chance for some accumulating snow this upcoming weekend in Kentucky. This is from late Saturday to early Sunday morning.
The following simulated GFS radar shows the possible snow for most of Kentucky. This is from early Saturday morning to Sunday afternoon.
First, let me say that the following map is not to be considered as an official forecast. It is just a snapshot in time showing what might be possible. As we know things can change suddenly as we get closer.
We still are a couple days away before anything definite can be forecasted. Keep checking back for updates.
Jan 7, 19, 09:37 PM #4
Jan 8, 19, 04:28 AM #5
Tuesday morning updateThis will be a quick update. The models are coming to a consensus on the possible wintry weather for this weekend. They still different on the amounts of snowfall. We are still a few days away and things will fluctuate until we get closer. I just wanted to show everyone what I've been seeing. Once again this is not an official forecast.
The Canadian Model
The NAM only goes out 84hrs in advance so it is out of its forecast range as of now. I will update again later today.
Jan 8, 19, 06:08 PM #6
Tuesday evening updateSo far the modeling data has been staying pretty consistent about a snow event affecting parts of Kentucky this weekend. The chance for accumulating snow has increased especially along and east of I-75.
Some may see some freezing rain. This may hold the totals down for some. The following simulated radar is from Saturday morning till Sunday evening. There may be some light accumulation on Monday due to lingering snow showers.
This weekend is still too far out for the NAM model to show us anything. I'm waiting to see what the NAM shows before I really get into any snowfall totals. One thing of note both the GFS and Canadian are pretty consistent about the snow. There's a slight difference in what they are showing for snowfall accumulations. So only time will tell.
I will update in the morning.
Jan 9, 19, 04:31 AM #7
Wednesday morning updateThe threat for winter weather to hit Kentucky has grown immensely overnight. The Weather Prediction Center now has parts of Kentucky in a 70% chance of accumulating snow over the upcoming weekend. For now, this is mainly for those from I-64 eastward. Surrounding that area some are now in a 50% chance area.
All of the weather models are now showing Kentucky receiving some possible accumulating snow this weekend. The following is the GFS simulated radar showing snow with some in southern Kentucky may be receiving a mix of rain/snow before changing over to all snow. Its range is from Friday night to Sunday afternoon.
The NAM is also now showing some snow for this weekend. It is still at the very end of the period that it can look into the future to see the weather. Right now it can only look to Saturday afternoon. It is showing a little be more northerly track than the GFS.
So everyone can see winter is heading our way this weekend. How much wintry accumulations is still up in the air. I want to see more from the NAM before I make any snow/freezing rain predictions. It is possible I may go into a winter weather threat mode by this evening or tomorrow.
One thing to note. The government shutdown is affecting some of the modeling information from the NWS. This could slightly affect some of the predictions from the National Weather Service. I pretty sure the modeling data I use is not affiliated with the government.
U.S Government Shutdown Affecting the Accuracy of Weather Forecast | Fortune
Check back for updates later today.
Jan 9, 19, 07:33 AM #8
Thanks for updates.
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Jan 9, 19, 11:57 AM #9
Jan 9, 19, 02:56 PM #10
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Jan 9, 19, 04:07 PM #11I'm issuing a Winter Weather Threat Mode for this weekend. For now mainly from around I-64 northward. Snow accumulations of several inches will be possible. South of I-64 look for light snow accumulations with some freezing rain possible.
The exact track of this system is still up in the air so things will more than likely change some. I will post a more detailed forecast a little later. It will be in a new thread.