Winter Weather Threat Mode

  1. #1
    nWo's Avatar
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    Winter Weather Threat Mode

    I'm going to go into a Winter Weather Threat Mode. This morning NAM run has the storm coming a little more to the north than last night. This means there will be more of a chance of accumulating snow, especially in Southeastern Kentucky. So I'm making my first prediction on possible snowfall accumulations.


    Pikeville 5-8"
    Jackson 2-4"
    London 2-4"
    Corbon 4-6"
    Somerset 3-5"

    These totals could go up if there is any more movement to the north of this storm.

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    There is also a chance of some significant freezing rain total along and south of the Cumberland PKWY and east of I-75. Freezing rain totals of anywhere from .025-.50" will be possible. These totals may cause some isolated power outages in the areas that get that amount.

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    This is a chart to show the damage that much freezing rain accumulations can do.

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    Everything should start off has a cold rain around 10 pm/9 CT tonight. Then the transition to freezing rain before it changes over to mostly all snow by early Sunday morning. Everything should be out of Kentucky by 4 pm EST Sunday evening.

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    Check back for my update around mid-morning.
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    Midday update

    All the models I just checked are showing a track that is moving more towards the north. This could possibly mean more of Kentucky receiving some snow and freezing rain. I will post my second forecast on potential snowfall accumulations later today after the afternoon model runs are issued. I wouldn't be surprised at all if a Winter Storm Watch is issued for Southeast Kentucky later today.

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    Saturday evening update

    The afternoon model runs have continued moving the possible track of this storm northward. So here is my second forecast on the possible snow accumulations through Sunday evening. That is when most of the wintry precipitation should be out of Kentucky. One thing of note. The freezing rain may bring these totals down but I'll discuss that in a bit.

    New Snowfall accumulation totals:

    Middlesboro 11-13"
    Pikeville 10-12"
    Hazard 8-10"
    London 8-10"
    Corbin 8-10"
    Jackson 6-8"
    Somerset 5-7"
    Columbia 3-5"
    Glasgow 3-5"
    Richmond 1-4"
    Berea 2-4"
    Bowling Green dusting to 1"

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    The freezing rain accumulations look to be the heaviest west of I-65. From parts of Western Kentucky to Southcentral Kentucky the NAM is predicting .17-.65" of accumulations. Everyone can look at the chart in this morning post to see what kind of damage this could cause.

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    I fully expect the Winter Storm Warning area to be expanded by morning. I'm keeping a close eye on this situation and will post updates when information warrants it. Please prepare as you see fit.

  4. #4
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    According to radar in Western Kentucky freezing rain and snow are about to reach that part of the state.

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    Zero snow in Somerset, but there is a coating of ice on everything.

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    Rain picking up with snow mix in now.
    No accumulation of snow yet...ice coating trees and power lines.

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    Just got home from Church and lunch to find the power has been out for well over an hour. KU has listed over 5000 without power currently.

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