Winter Weather Threat Mode for (1/12-13/2018)

  1. #1
    nWo's Avatar
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    Winter Weather Threat Mode for (1/12-13/2018)

    I'm going to go ahead and go into a Winter Weather Threat Mode for Friday and Saturday. All indications are that a major winter storm could hit the Ohio Valley and Kentucky. The timing and accumulation amounts are still not in agreement by the weather models but they all are showing a major winter storm hitting Kentucky this upcoming weekend.

    The NAM is showing some major accumulations of ice and snow for Kentucky.

    Snow

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    Ice

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    The GFS

    Snow

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    Ice

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    The Canadian

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    Ice

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    As everyone can see if you take the information from the models even though they are not in total agreement there appears to be a major winter storm heading for Kentucky this weekend. Word of caution I'm not ready to issue any accumulation predictions as of yet. I want to see a couple more model runs before I do.

    Everyone can take this information and make any preparations they see fit. I will update later today.
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    FYI I've received email from the National Weather Service Louisville office about the upcoming weather event. They were saying this storm will have major impact on Kentucky.

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    UKMustangFan's Avatar
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    So looking at the different models, how does one show 20 inches and the others show roughly 4 in the NKY area? How do they look at the same data and come up with such drastic differences?

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    Quote Originally Posted by UKMustangFan View Post
    So looking at the different models, how does one show 20 inches and the others show roughly 4 in the NKY area? How do they look at the same data and come up with such drastic differences?
    It's just how the models read storms. Sometimes they have problems reading a storm a few days out. They should start coming closer together as we get closer to Friday. Also that is one reason I don't put out accumulation totals until the event gets closer. Things will change.

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    Quote Originally Posted by UKMustangFan View Post
    So looking at the different models, how does one show 20 inches and the others show roughly 4 in the NKY area? How do they look at the same data and come up with such drastic differences?
    The way it was explained to me by an old friend is, during times like this, when the weather is so warm.

    They have a pretty good idea of how much total precipitation we will have, but it's really hard to predict the temperature drop when rain will turn to snow.

    Where I grew up, up north, the rain to snow conversion was 1" of rain equals 10" of snow. Down here I think it's more like 1" to 7".

    So if they are figuring a 3" rain equivalent. Depending on what point that turns to snow you might get 2 1/2" of rain and 3" of snow, or you could get 21" of snow.

    @nWo will have to help us to say if that explanation is on track, but that's what I've been told in the past.

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    Anywhere from 4-15 inches forecasted.

    When will the milk and bread rush begin? I want to go watch the old people yell at each other.

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    I'm hopeful

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    NamecipS's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Wireman View Post
    I'm hopeful
    I will be waiting for your video report on FB.

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    Lordy lordy

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    I hate winter, but if it’s gonna snow, bring the noise.

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    True blue (and gold)'s Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by NamecipS View Post
    Anywhere from 4-15 inches forecasted.

    When will the milk and bread rush begin? I want to go watch the old people yell at each other.
    Who has forecasted that much? I haven't seen anyone forecast amounts yet.

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    UKMustangFan's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by TheDeuce View Post
    I hate winter, but if it’s gonna snow, bring the noise.
    Same here. If it's gonna snow, let's have it come on a Friday afternoon/night and let's have it be massive.

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    Quote Originally Posted by UKMustangFan View Post
    Same here. If it's gonna snow, let's have it come on a Friday afternoon/night and let's have it be massive.
    It can snow all it wants. While I’m not a big fan of winter, things just don’t seem right, unless we get a couple big snows. Seems like it has been way too long. I kinda like watching big snow events unfold. And now that I work from home and don’t really have to travel in it, it’s even better. Just need to make sure I have enough alcohol to last me through the weekend.

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    Quote Originally Posted by True blue (and gold) View Post
    Who has forecasted that much? I haven't seen anyone forecast amounts yet.
    Channel 19 at 6pm last night showed one model that said possibly 20 inches

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    Same boat as a few others here. Give us a major snow storm if it's gonna snow none of the light footing around stuff. Then go ahead and clear up and be 75 and sunny please.

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