Feb 5, 18, 05:00 AM #1
Significant Wintry Weather Possible Tuesday Night and Wednesday (Updated)As I mentioned last week we have another shot at wintry weather about mid-week. Forecast confidence is increasing that parts of Kentucky could see significant wintry weather Tuesday night into Wednesday. Some uncertainty exists as to where exactly the snow/ice/rain boundaries will set up with this system, but at this time, locations along and north of the Bluegrass/Western Kentucky Parkways are most likely to see some sort of wintry precipitation.
Here is what the latest model information is showing. There is a difference in timing in the data but they are both showing essentially the same thing. Firs the NAM. It showing the precipitation coming in early Wednesday morning then changing to all rain by mid-morning.
The NAM is showing more of an icing event that snow. With the Cincinnati area getting from a dusting to around an inch of snow.
It is also showing an accumulation of freezing rain for those along the Ohio River. The amounts are from around a .10 to .35 inches.
The GFS has a little bit more of a southerly track and so it is showing more snow for those north or I-64. From a dusting around I-64 to possibly 1-3" for the Cincinnati/NKY area. Also on timing, the GFS has the wintry precip starting late Tuesday night.
Now the GFS has the possible freezing rain accumulation a little further south than the NAM and it is showing a little more in accumulation totals. Anywhere from a .10 to .41" will be possible.
Here's a reminder of what freezing rain/ice accumulations can cause.
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Feb 5, 18, 04:55 PM #2Here's my first call for the possible wintry precipitation some are looking to get late Tuesday night into Wednesday.
First here is what the GFS is showing. It is showing the Cincinnati/NKY area receiving 3-5 inches of snow. Just south of that area down to about I-64 those in those areas could receive from about a .10 to .60" for freezing rain accumulations. It looks to remain all rain south of I-64. WKY is looking at mainly a possible freezing rain event anywhere between .10-.50" of accumulation.
GFS Freezing Rain
Now for the NAM. It is showing around 3" of snow for the Cincinnati/NKY area.The totals are down a bit from what the GFS is showing because it is showing more of a chance for some freezing rain accumulations in that area. Totals of around .02" of accumulations. It also shows the freezing rain reaching down to about I-64. From around .10 to .50" of accumulations. For WKY the NAM is showing a little more in freezing rain accumulations. From .10 to around .70" in accumulations.
Here is my first call for this upcoming wintry weather event. For the Cincinnati/NKY 2-4" of snow. These totals could come down if there is freezing rain. WKY from .10-.60" of freezing rain. There is a possibility of some snow around from around a dusting to 1" in the Owensboro area.
I'll update in the morning.
Feb 5, 18, 05:07 PM #3
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Feb 5, 18, 05:20 PM #4
Feb 5, 18, 06:32 PM #5
Training all week in Richmond. Driving down from Independence each day. Perhaps I should consider getting a hotel room for Tuesday into Wednesday nWo?
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Feb 5, 18, 06:38 PM #6
I just recently receive and email from the National Weather Service office out of Louisville that there will be a conference call tomorrow afternoon. For those who would like to know that is where I'm registered and BGP is also as an ambassador.
Last edited by nWo; Feb 6, 18 at 02:37 AM.
Feb 5, 18, 09:49 PM #7