Significant Severe Weather possible Monday afternoon

  1. #1
    nWo's Avatar
    Join Date
    Aug 01
    Location
    Richmond,KY
    Posts
    40,188

    Significant Severe Weather possible Monday afternoon

    There is a possibility of a significant severe weather event Monday afternoon. While parts of southcentral Kentucky are in a Marginal Risk Area I'm posting this info just in case the weather pattern shifts towards Kentucky. I expect an upgrade in the threat levels sometime Tomorrow.

    Name:  KY_swody3.png
Views: 261
Size:  329.7 KB

    The following maps show how significant these storms could be.

    EHI

    Name:  ehi03.us_ov.png
Views: 268
Size:  383.3 KB

    Supercell

    Name:  scp.us_ov.png
Views: 265
Size:  376.3 KB

    Significant Tornadoes

    Name:  stp.us_ov.png
Views: 274
Size:  376.6 KB
    Advertisement

  2. #2
    nWo's Avatar
    Join Date
    Aug 01
    Location
    Richmond,KY
    Posts
    40,188

    Sunday morning Update 3/18/2018

    As expected the severe weather threat level has been raised for those in central Tennessee. Also, I'm noticing a little more northward track for this weather system. This was anticipated also. The Severe Weather Outlook map below shows this as the Slight Risk area is now up to the Kentucky/Tennessee border. Also, the Marginal Risk Area now extends from western Kentucky to around the Columbia area.

    Name:  KY_swody2.png
Views: 209
Size:  330.7 KB

    Here is a reminder of what each severe weather category means.

    Name:  Outlook-category-descriptions.png
Views: 215
Size:  407.1 KB

    As of this morning, the best timing for these possible severe storms is late afternoon around the 4 pm CDT time slot. Here is a simulated radar.

    Name:  radar.gif
Views: 222
Size:  474.2 KB

    The primary threats look to be tornadoes, damaging wind, and hail. A strong tornado or two is possible during the late afternoon. This is mainly in middle Tennessee. I mention it because if the storm system continues to take a more northerly course these conditions will move closer if not into parts of southern Kentucky.

    The GFS Low-pressure track. I didn't use the NAM because there is a glitch in this morning's low-pressure track model. As everyone can see the low is forecast to past just to the south of Kentucky.

    Name:  low.gif
Views: 216
Size:  445.0 KB

    The following maps show the conditions will be conducive to the formation of severe storms.

    Name:  ehi03.us_ov.png
Views: 213
Size:  382.9 KB

    Name:  scp.us_ov.png
Views: 209
Size:  374.2 KB

    Name:  stp.us_ov.png
Views: 207
Size:  369.3 KB

    A word to the wise if you have family along the Kentucky/Tennessee border I would let them know to keep an eye on the weather. I've done this for my family in Bowling Green. Check back for updates later today.

  3. #3
    nWo's Avatar
    Join Date
    Aug 01
    Location
    Richmond,KY
    Posts
    40,188

    If these conditions do move into Kentucky I will go into a Severe Weather Threat mode.

  4. #4
    Mustang's Avatar
    Join Date
    Mar 01
    Location
    Extreme Northern Kentucky
    Posts
    8,215

    God must think that I'm fishing at Pickwick Lake, Tn., this week.

  5. #5
    Jumper_Dad's Avatar
    Join Date
    Nov 06
    Location
    To one who has faith, no explanation is necessary. To one without faith, no explanation is possible
    Posts
    47,220

    Thanks for the heads up @nWo

  6. #6
    nWo's Avatar
    Join Date
    Aug 01
    Location
    Richmond,KY
    Posts
    40,188

    Just a very quick update. The Storm Prediction Center has moved the Slight Risk Area to include parts of Kentucky close to the Tennessee border. I will post a more detailed update later.

  7. #7
    nWo's Avatar
    Join Date
    Aug 01
    Location
    Richmond,KY
    Posts
    40,188

    Sunday evening update 3/18/18

    Parts of Kentucky along the Tennesse border could see some strong to severe storms late Monday afternoon. Timing looks to be from 5-8 pm EDT. The threats look to be weak supercell thunderstorms that could produce damaging winds and a weak tornado or two.

    Those in middles Tennessee could see during the same time period significant supercell thunderstorms with damaging winds and a couple of tornadoes.

    Here is the Severe Weather Outlook map.

    Name:  KY_swody2.png
Views: 171
Size:  330.2 KB

    Update early Monday morning.

  8. #8
    nWo's Avatar
    Join Date
    Aug 01
    Location
    Richmond,KY
    Posts
    40,188

    I've been studying this tool called Atmospheric Sounding Map. This is why in my previous post I posted about the strength of the supercell storms and tornadoes. This is my first time using this tool. I believe it can be a very valuable tool because I can click on a certain point on the map and it will show me the different types of severe weather possible and its strengths. We'll see how it goes.

    Name:  gfs_2018031818_027_36.25--87.25.png
Views: 171
Size:  214.4 KB

  9. #9
    nWo's Avatar
    Join Date
    Aug 01
    Location
    Richmond,KY
    Posts
    40,188

    The severe threat for parts of Southern Kentucky has lessened some. These same areas are still in a Marginal Risk Area for strong to severe storms. Main threats look to be damaging winds. Hail will also be possible. Can't completely rule out a weak tornado or two. I will be monitoring the situation throughout the day. Updates when warranted on here and our Twitter page.

    Name:  KY_swody1.png
Views: 132
Size:  329.1 KB

  10. #10
    nWo's Avatar
    Join Date
    Aug 01
    Location
    Richmond,KY
    Posts
    40,188

    The Atmospheric Sounding map looks to be spot on. It was showing that there will be particularly dangerous tornadoes in parts of Tennessee, Alabama, and Mississippi. The Storm Prediction Center just issued a Particularly Dangerous Situation Tornado Watch for parts of those states. The SPC doesn't issue a PDS watch often.

    If you have any family members in these areas call them as soon as possible.

    Name:  ww0013_radar.gif
Views: 68
Size:  110.6 KB

  11. #11
    nWo's Avatar
    Join Date
    Aug 01
    Location
    Richmond,KY
    Posts
    40,188

    Just checked the latest NAM for parts of Southern Kentucky. Mainly around the Bowling Green area eastward. I'm growing more concerned about the possibility of supercell storms that could produce significant hail and tornadoes. A Tornado Watch has been issued just south of this area in Tennessee.

Top