Nov 8, 19, 02:16 AM #1
Next chance for snow (Monday 11/11/19)There appears to be a better chance for some to receive some accumulating snow late Monday afternoon into the evening hours. There is a difference in the amounts and who will receive the snow in the mid-range models.
First for the Euro model. The precipitation will start out as rain then transition from some freezing rain over to snow. It is showing some light snow accumulations for mainly a section of Kentucky northeast of a line from around Louisville to Pikeville. The timing for the simulations is from 1 pm EST Monday afternoon to 6 am EST Tuesday morning. Mainly around 1 inch with heavier accumulations or 1-2 in the Northern Kentucky area.
The GFS model is showing more of a chance of widespread snow accumulations. Also heavier accumulation totals. 1-2 inches mainly east of I-65 with some along the I-75 corridor with the possibility of 2-3 inches.
As everyone can see there is still some uncertainty about where and how much possible snow accumulations there might be. I will update it later today.Advertisement
Nov 8, 19, 08:45 AM #2What's the temps going to be like? Heard that there was a pretty big deep freeze potentially heading our way.
Nov 8, 19, 07:32 PM #3
Nov 9, 19, 05:44 AM #4
Saturday morning updateIt is expected that some snow accumulations will occur on Monday. There is still some uncertainty as to how much and where the heaviest accumulations will occur. Both the Euro and GFS maps are in pretty close agreement this morning on amounts but different on the coverage of the snowfield. A general 1-2 inches are possible as of this morning. The Euro has the snow mainly east of the I-65 corridor. While the GFS has most of Kentucky south of I-64 receiving the snow north of I-64 getting just a dusting to an inch.
The NAM closely matches the Euro snowfield coverage but shows much less in accumulations that both the Euro and GFS.
Notwithstanding the possible snow, the expected bitter cold temperature will move in late Monday night into early Tuesday morning. Look for morning lows to range from the teens to low 20s across Kentucky. The temperature won't rise much on Tuesday only to around the mid-20s. The models are in pretty good agreement on the temperatures.
I will update later this evening.
Nov 10, 19, 05:52 AM #5
Sunday morning updateThe threat for some accumulating snow late Monday afternoon into the evening hours is on the increase. The models are in pretty much good agreement about accumulating falling on much of Kentucky. They still differ some on the range of the snowfield.
The Euro and GFS are almost in lockstep with the exception in the Euro that western Kentucky may get just a dusting.
The NAM differs in that it shows a break in the snow accumulations around the Ohio River then southeast of a line from around Bowling Green northeastward to about Portsmouth, Ohio receiving the most snow.
The GFS is the only model showing the possibility of some freezing rain accumulation so far.
As for the timing of the snow. The precipitation will start off as rain Monday afternoon and start the switch over to snow during the evening. There may be a brief period of freezing rain before the transition into all snow. The timing for all of the model runs I'm posting is from 1 pm EST Monday through 7 am EST Tuesday morning.
So as everyone can see we have a good shot at getting our first accumulating snowfall this winter on Monday. I will post my first call this evening. I won't be home to around 5 pm so I will definitely post as quickly as I can after I get home.