Sep 16, 17, 03:54 PM #1
Hurricane MariaThose who are located in the Florida Keys, US east coast and other areas hit by Hurricane Irma should keep an eye on Tropical Storm Maria. With the 5 pm, EDT update from the National Hurricane Center the depression has become a tropical storm. It has maximum sustained winds at 5 mph. Movement is west at 20 mph.
Maria is forecast to strengthen in the next 48 hrs and become a hurricane when it approaches the Leeward Islands early next week.
Then we'll need to watch Tropical Storm Lee after Maria.
I will be watching this closely and post updates when possible as we get closer.
Sep 16, 17, 05:03 PM #2While Maria is still a tropical storm hurricane watches have been issued. Maria is expected to become a major hurricane by the middle of next week.
Hurricane Watch issued for some of the same areas hit by Irma.
THE GOVERNMENT OF ANTIGUA HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WATCH FOR
ANTIGUA... BARBUDA... ST. KITTS... NEVIS...AND MONTSERRAT.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* ANTIGUA...BARBUDA...ST. KITTS...NEVIS...AND MONTSERRAT
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* ST. LUCIA
* ST. VINCENT AND THE GRENADINES
A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS
BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS... CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA... GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE LESSER ANTILLES SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. ADDITIONAL TROPICAL STORM OR HURRICANE
WATCHES WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED TONIGHT OR EARLY SUNDAY.
Sep 17, 17, 03:35 AM #3The 2:00 AM update from the National Hurricane Center
The center of Tropical Storm Maria was
located near latitude 12.7 North, longitude 54.4 West. Maria is
moving toward the west near 16 mph. A turn toward the
west-northwest and a slower forward speed are expected during next
couple of days. On the forecast track, the center of Maria will be
near the Leeward Islands Monday or Monday night.
Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph with higher
gusts. Strengthening is expected during the next 48 hours, and
Maria is forecast to be a hurricane when it approaches the Leeward
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles from the center.
Maria is expected to remain in an environment of good moisture, light shear, and warm sea surface temperatures for at least the next 4 days. This should result in steady to rapid intensification.The new intensity forecast is similar to the previous forecast in calling for Maria to become a hurricane in 24 h and a major hurricane in 72 h, and it lies at the upper edge of the intensity guidance. However, rapid intensification is a distinct possibility, and it would be no surprise if Maria got significantly stronger than currently forecast.
Sep 17, 17, 06:50 AM #4What's the chances of Maria turning northward and away from the US coast like Jose did?
Sep 17, 17, 08:53 AM #5
Sep 17, 17, 11:58 AM #6
Leewards taking another shot. This is rough year for the islands.
- Join Date
- Apr 07
- Bluegrass Region
Sep 17, 17, 04:47 PM #75:00 pm 9/17/17 update:
Maria has become a Cat 1 hurricane. The center of Hurricane Maria was located by an Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft near latitude 13.8North, longitude 57.5 West. Maria is moving toward the west-northwest near 15 mph, and this motion with a decrease in forward speed is expected through Tuesday. On the forecast track, the center of Maria will move across the LeewardIslands Monday night and then over the extreme northeastern Caribbean Sea on Tuesday.Reconnaissance data indicate that maximum sustained winds have increased to near 75 mph with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and Maria could be near major hurricane intensity when it moves across the LeewardIslands Monday night.
Last edited by nWo; Sep 17, 17 at 05:47 PM.
Sep 18, 17, 01:54 AM #8At 200 AM, 9/18/17. the center of Hurricane Maria was located by Martinique radar near latitude 14.4 North, longitude 59.0 West.Maria is moving toward the west-northwest near 13 mph, and this motion with a decrease in forward speed is expected through Tuesday night. On the forecast track, the center of Maria will move across the Leeward Islands late today and tonight and then over the extreme northeastern Caribbean Sea Tuesday and Tuesday night.Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 90 mph with higher gusts. Rapid strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and Maria is expected to become a major hurricane before it moves through the Leeward Islands.Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 15 miles from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105miles (165 km).
Sep 18, 17, 10:31 AM #9Up to a CAT 3 now.
Sep 18, 17, 01:29 PM #10Just looked at the latest GFS model run. It is showing landfall along the South Carolina North Carolina border for Maria. Remember this is the almost the exact same thing it showed for Irma around a week or more away from the predicted landfall date. Please note now that this doesn't necessarily mean Maria will make landfall near that region but I think it is worth noting this is what it also showed for Irma and we all know where Irma finally hit the mainland US.
Everyone in those areas should keep an eye on Maria as we get closer to the possible landfall.
Sep 18, 17, 02:02 PM #11The sustained winds are 125 mph, now, too.
Sep 18, 17, 02:43 PM #12This hurricane season is basically ridiculous now.
Sep 18, 17, 03:53 PM #13
Sep 18, 17, 04:31 PM #14
Sep 18, 17, 04:54 PM #15