A category 2 Slight Risk Area has been issued for parts of Kentucky east of I-65. This area includes all of Ohio and parts of western Indiana. A category 1 Marginal Risk Area exists just west of the I-65 corridor.
Scattered storms, some severe with hail and or wind, are expected today from the southern Great Lakes southward into the Ohio Valley. A cold front will advance eastward into the Ohio Valley as a corridor of maximized low-level moisture sets up ahead of the front. Dewpoints in the upper 60s F should result in moderate instability by midday across most of the moist sector. As the surface temperatures warm a convergence zone will increase along the front. This will cause scattered storms to initiate ahead of the front. A complex of thunderstorms will be possible as storms increase in coverage. Forecast soundings ahead of the front by 5 pm EDT from northern Kentucky southward into eastern Kentucky should be favorable for isolated damaging wind gusts. Hail will also be possible with the stronger cells embedded in the line that becomes established. A tornado or two will also be possible.
The following HRRR Ohio Valley Radar shows the possible scattered storms. It is from 11 am to 7 pm EDT.
Wind and hail will be possible anywhere east of I-65.
At the moment I'm issuing a BGP Tornado Index Level 1. It seems that the best chance of seeing a tornado is east of I-75. According to this mornings, SARS soundings the possibility of the strongest tornadoes exists north of I-64. This is not saying one will definitely form just that this morning's soundings show that. Also, a tornado can form anywhere and at any time during a severe weather event. So everyone should be weather aware later today.
I will update whenever possible during the day today.