Category 2 Slight Risk Area for Tuesday afternoon

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    Category 2 Slight Risk Area for Tuesday afternoon

    Severe Storms are expected Tuesday afternoon and early evening. Scattered thunderstorms are forecast to develop along the front during the afternoon. Cells may tend to organize into lines later afternoon into the early evening.

    The Storm Prediction Center has a large section of Kentucky in a category 2 Slight Risk Area. North of that area is a category 1 Marginal Risk Area.

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    The following HRRR Ohio Valley Radar shows pretty well what I was talking about early in this post. Scattered thunderstorms could be in the northern Kentucky area around 11 am EDT. As they move in a southeasterly direction around 2 pm EDT they look to increase in intensity and coverage. The time period for this radar run is from 11 am to 10 pm EDT.

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    Damaging winds, hail and a tornado or two will be possible. I will update early in the morning.
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    Tuesday morning update

    Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected to develop along a weak frontal zone as it sags southeast across Kentucky during the afternoon. The Storm Prediction Center has most of Kentucky north of I-64 in a category 1 Marginal Risk Area. There is a category 2 Slight Risk Area that is contained between the Bluegrass and Mountain Pkwy.

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    The main risks look to be damaging winds and hail. There is a marginal risk of a tornado so I'm issuing a Level 1 Tornado threat.

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    The timing looks to be from early afternoon into the early evening hours. It really depends on when the front passes through Kentucky. Also, the heat indices will be close to 100 degrees this afternoon. Everyone should be weather aware later today.

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