Call for snow 1/19-20/19 (Update)

  1. #1
    nWo's Avatar
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    Call for snow 1/19-20/19 (Update)

    As I stated last night I was seeing the track of this system moving southward. This morning modeling data is confirming what I was seeing. It now appears that parts of Kentucky could receive some accumulating snows. First, let's look at the maps. The NAM is showing the low-pressure system tracking a little more to the south than the GFS. It also is showing a wider stretch of Kentucky getting some significant snow accumulations.

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    The GFS is showing most of the accumulating snows east of I-65.

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    Now, this map is from the GFS-FV3 model. It will be replacing the GFS map. This is the first time I'm using it. It mirrors the GFS some but it has the Cincinnati/NKY receiving major snowfall. Also, more of southeast Kentucky getting accumulating snow.

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    At the present time, the snow will start Saturday evening into the day on Sunday. Temperatures will fall in the teens to low 20s by Sunday afternoon. Looking at all the models I'm averaging what they are showing. So here is my first call for snow.


    Cincinnati/NKY 3-6"
    Louisville 3-5"
    Lexington/Richmond/Jackson 2-4"
    Western Kentucky 1-3"

    As everyone can see this will be a tricky call on snow. Check back later today for my second call for snow. I may also go into Winter Weather Threat mode then.
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    PP1's Avatar
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    I don't like when it snows at night, I'd rather be able to watch it fall.

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    Quote Originally Posted by PP1 View Post
    I don't like when it snows at night, I'd rather be able to watch it fall.
    There is something really peaceful about watching a really heavy snow.

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    It’s like Narnia. Anyone? Narnia?

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    Mediocre Nachos's Avatar
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    I can't help but think that if NKY gets even a little bit of ice along with 40 mph gusts, there could be power outages for quite some time. Not good when polar air is moving in.

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    @nWo, what are you seeing for west of KY lakes?

    The forecasts here are jumping all over the place with their predictions. I know it maybe until tonight or early morning to get a feel for how far south the system will dip.

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    Quote Originally Posted by sweet16 View Post
    @nWo, what are you seeing for west of KY lakes?

    The forecasts here are jumping all over the place with their predictions. I know it maybe until tonight or early morning to get a feel for how far south the system will dip.
    A Winter Weather Advisory has just been issued for Western Kentucky. I'll update later today.

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    Quote Originally Posted by nWo View Post
    A Winter Weather Advisory has just been issued for Western Kentucky. I'll update later today.
    Thanks.

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    2nd call for snow accumulations

    The models are still having some problems coming to grips with this weekends storm. Here's what the afternoon data is showing. First the NAM it is showing most of the heaviest accumulations in Western Kentucky and along the Ohio River. Also, it is showing a small impulse that could cause some light snow Sunday night for parts of Western Kentucky.

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    The GFS is also showing most of the same with the heaviest accumulations along the Ohio River but with Eastern Kentucky, not Western Kentucky getting in on the act.

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    The new GFS-FV3 model also is showing the same along the Ohio River but with all of Kentucky getting some snow. Remember this is the new weather model that is going to replace the GFS model.

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    So here is my 2nd call for snow Saturday night into Sunday morning.

    Cincinnati/NKY 5-8"
    Louisville 4-6"
    Owensboro, Jackson, Pikeville 3-5"
    Paducah, Maysville 2-4"
    Bowling Green, Richmond, Lexington, Somerset 1-3"

    Areas north of I-64 could also receive some freezing rain accumulations. I will update in the morning.

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    I will be keeping up with your updates. Thanks so much!!!!!

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    NWS just interrupted my DVR'd tv show to tell me that Boone, Kenton and Campbell are in a Winter Storm Warning tomorrow from 2pm until 8am Sunday.

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    I'll be back in around a couple of hours or so with an update. To give time for all of the modeling data to be released. Also to get a little sleep. I woke up around 2 am to check on the weather.

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    Saturday morning update

    We have the making of a major winter storm hitting Kentucky later today through Sunday morning. Before I get to the possible snow lets look at the rain for during the day on Saturday. Rain can be expected across the entire state. Widespread 1-2" of rain accumulation is expected. Localized minor flooding is possible over south central Kentucky, especially in the areas that experience repeated heavy rain showers or thunderstorms. Winds could gust to 40+ mph in the stronger showers and storms.

    Now for the possible snow. First, let me show you what all three of the models are showing with this morning's data release.

    The NAM

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    The GFS

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    The GFS-FV3

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    Let me say first that for now, it looks like most major accumulation if not all of the freezing rain will be confined to the Cincinnati/NKY area. Anywhere from .10 to .25" will be possible. The GFS-FV3 is showing upwards of .80" I hope it is wrong. To refresh everyone's memory here is a chart to show what could happen with freezing rain accumulations.

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    Now for my snow accumulation forecast.

    Cincinnati/NKY, Louisville 7-9"
    There could be some that receive upwards to around a 12"+ in the area around Louisville, southern Indiana and Elizabethtown area.

    Paducah, Mayfield, Murray, Owensboro 6-8"
    Bowling Green, Hopkinsville Ashland, Richmond, Lexington, Winchester, Maysville 2-5"
    Jackson, Pikeville, Somerset, Corbin dusting to 2"

    I will be following this throughout the day and posting updates whenever possible. Everyone should be prepared if not already prepared for this major winter storm.

  14. #14
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    Everyone batten down the hatches! This looks like it could be a wild one. I'm waiting on the updated GFS and GFS-FV3 updates. If both of those confirm what the NAM is now showing I fully expect the Winter Storm Warning area to be expanded to include most if not all of western Kentucky and parts of Kentucky to at least around the I-64 corridor.

  15. #15
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    My concern for those in and around the Cincinnati/NKY area is growing. The freezing rain estimated totals are remaining a little on the high side for my taste. As of right now maybe a .25"+ before the snow starts.

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