I've finished working on the Tornado threat Index I mention a day or two ago. It is something I've been thinking about for a while. I think this will be better than saying there's a chance without indication of how much of a chance. I figure there may have to be some tweaking of this index but we'll cross that bridge when we get to it.
This is how I hope it will work. During a future severe weather event, I will also post a BGP Tornado index level. The level will be 1-6. The higher the number the better chance to see a tornado. I will also try to indicate what area of the state this will cover. In the chart below you can see the different severe thunderstorm categories everyone may be familiar with. In the first column, you see the percentage probability of a tornado forming. The Storm Prediction Center puts out the percent chance of a tornado forming. The next three columns show the three threats from a severe thunderstorm. Finally, you see where I've divided all of this into 6 threat levels. Lastly, the threat will be with a 50-mile radius. Meaning that if you pick a point on the map the level will indicate the probability of a tornado forming within that radius.
Hopefully, this will work the way I planned it.
Severe Thunderstorm Categories