BGP Severe Weather Alert Day for 6/19/19 (updated)

  1. #1
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    BGP Severe Weather Alert Day for 6/19/19 (updated)

    The Storm Prediction Center has expanded the category 2 Slight Risk Area. It is now west of a line from around Sparta down to Frankfort then down to Columbia.

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    Conditions will develop ahead of an upper trough, with cool midlevel temperatures and increased winds aloft overspreading the region. Daytime heating will yield scattered storms first along the Ohio River then they should start to fire up in western Kentucky. For now, it looks like the main threat will be damaging winds and maybe some hail.

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    The following HRRR Ohio Valley Radar shows things getting going around 4 pm EDT. There also looks to be scattered storms into the nighttime hours. This radar run ends at 11 pm EDT.

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    Everyone should be weather aware later this afternoon into the evening hours. As always any warnings I see will be sent out via our Twitter page.
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    Quick update

    it seems that the tornado threat may be increasing for parts of western Kentucky. Especially west of the Land between the Lakes area. I will post an update within an hour or so.

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    Update

    The tornado threat for this afternoon has indeed increased. As in my earlier update the main area of concern this morning in western Kentucky west of the Land between the Lakes area. With the latest update from the Storm Prediction Center, there is now a threat of tornadoes that extends to around the I-65 corridor. This morning this map was showing zero chance in Kentucky.

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    I'm monitoring this situation closely and will post updates when possible.

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    Update

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    Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

    SUMMARY...A gradual increase and intensification of thunderstorms could yield at least some increase in risk for potentially damaging wind gusts by 3-5 PM EDT. While it is not yet certain that a severe weather watch will be needed, trends will continue to be monitored for this possibility.

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    Update for western Kentucky and southern Indiana

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    Mesoscale Discussion 1134
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    1235 PM CDT Wed Jun 19 2019


    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible


    Valid 191735Z - 191930Z


    Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent


    SUMMARY...A further increase in thunderstorm intensity and organization appears possible through 3-5 PM CDT. This may be
    accompanied by an increase in severe weather potential which could require a watch within the next couple of hours.

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