BGP Category 4 Severe Weather Alert Day

  1. #1
    nWo's Avatar
    Join Date
    Aug 01
    Location
    Richmond,KY
    Posts
    39,999

    BGP Category 4 Severe Weather Alert Day

    The severe weather threat has increased since last night. The very latest just released by the Storm Prediction Center at 2 am EDT now has parts of Kentucky in a category 4 Moderate Risk Area for severe storms later today. This area is from just east of Paducah and includes Madisonville, Owensboro, Louisville, Bowling Green to just west of Frankfort. Parts of the Land between the Lakes, Southern Indiana and Central Tennesse are included. The rest of Western Kentucky and those along the I-75 corridor are in a category 3 Enhanced Risk Area. The cities included in this area are Paducah, Covington, Frankfort, Lexington, Winchester, Richmond, Somerset. A strip of Eastern Kentucky is in a Slight Risk Area. Cities included in this are Maysville, Morehead, Jackson, Hazard, Manchester. East of that area is in a Marginal Risk area. Cities in this area include Paintsville, Prestonsburg, Pikeville.

    Name:  KY_swody1.png
Views: 79
Size:  344.2 KB

    Here's a reminder of each category

    Name:  severe-weather-definitions.jpg
Views: 76
Size:  273.6 KB

    There look to be several possible rounds of storms for today. The main event looks to be late this afternoon into the evening hours. After the initial rounds early today these should clear out and allowed the conditions to be conducive for the main round of severe weather to develop. This should start occurring around the 4-5 pm EDT time slot and then continue into the evening hours.

    All of the following maps are from 11 am to 11 pm EDT today.

    Radar

    Name:  radar.gif
Views: 84
Size:  428.4 KB

    EHI

    Name:  ehi.gif
Views: 90
Size:  447.0 KB

    Supercell

    Name:  supercell.gif
Views: 77
Size:  468.2 KB

    Significant Tornado

    Name:  stp.gif
Views: 78
Size:  424.6 KB

    I'm sorry I don't have more time but I have to leave for work in about 10 minutes. Going in early to try and get home early this afternoon. Everyone should be weather vigilant later today and go over your emergency action plan before any severe weather hits your area.

    I will be posting updates throughout the day when possible through our Twitter page. As soon as I can after I get off work I will post an update.
    Advertisement

  2. #2
    TheDeuce's Avatar
    Join Date
    Sep 04
    Location
    The Heisman House
    Posts
    49,739

    I think I saw that the TOR:CON value for the Louisville area is a 5 today.

  3. #3
    nWo's Avatar
    Join Date
    Aug 01
    Location
    Richmond,KY
    Posts
    39,999

    The Moderate Risk Area has been expanded to include the Cincinnati/NKY area.

  4. #4
    nWo's Avatar
    Join Date
    Aug 01
    Location
    Richmond,KY
    Posts
    39,999

    Quote Originally Posted by nWo View Post
    The Moderate Risk Area has been expanded to include the Cincinnati/NKY area.
    Name:  KY_swody1.png
Views: 50
Size:  349.2 KB

  5. #5
    theguru's Avatar
    Join Date
    Nov 00
    Location
    Florence
    Posts
    139,904

    Quote Originally Posted by nWo View Post
    The Moderate Risk Area has been expanded to include the Cincinnati/NKY area.
    What is your best forecast for NKY tonight?

  6. #6
    nWo's Avatar
    Join Date
    Aug 01
    Location
    Richmond,KY
    Posts
    39,999

    Quote Originally Posted by theguru View Post
    What is your best forecast for NKY tonight?
    Look for multiple rounds of strong to severe storms in NKY into the nighttime hours. May clear out around 11 pm or so. All threats are on the table. A severe weather watch may be issued soon.

  7. #7
    nWo's Avatar
    Join Date
    Aug 01
    Location
    Richmond,KY
    Posts
    39,999

    A severe weather watch may be issued soon for those in the enclosed area on the map. 80% chance of the watch being issued.

    Attachment 66738

  8. #8
    nWo's Avatar
    Join Date
    Aug 01
    Location
    Richmond,KY
    Posts
    39,999

    I'll be back with an update after the scheduled 2 pm conference call by the NWS-Louisville office.

  9. #9
    nWo's Avatar
    Join Date
    Aug 01
    Location
    Richmond,KY
    Posts
    39,999

    WKY may get a watch soon.

  10. #10
    nWo's Avatar
    Join Date
    Aug 01
    Location
    Richmond,KY
    Posts
    39,999

    From the National Weather Service Office-Louisville.

    Severe Weather Hazards Risks from now till midnight

    Hail-Very High
    Damaging Winds-High
    Tornado-Medium
    Flooding-low to Medium

    Numerous thunderstorms
    Large Hail up to 2+ inches
    Wind Gusts 60-70 mph
    A few tornadoes
    Frequent lightning.

  11. #11
    TheDeuce's Avatar
    Join Date
    Sep 04
    Location
    The Heisman House
    Posts
    49,739

    When I saw the velocity couplet a little while ago on the cell in Harrison Co., Indiana I was concerned... Now the reports coming in validate those concerns.

  12. #12
    nWo's Avatar
    Join Date
    Aug 01
    Location
    Richmond,KY
    Posts
    39,999

    Quote Originally Posted by TheDeuce View Post
    When I saw the velocity couplet a little while ago on the cell in Harrison Co., Indiana I was concerned... Now the reports coming in validate those concerns.
    I posted a picture of the tornado in the tornado watch thread.

  13. #13
    TheDeuce's Avatar
    Join Date
    Sep 04
    Location
    The Heisman House
    Posts
    49,739

    Larger than golf ball size hail in Iroquois Park in Louisville.

  14. #14
    nWo's Avatar
    Join Date
    Aug 01
    Location
    Richmond,KY
    Posts
    39,999

    rockmom sent word to me that she has seen some hail at her home. Nothing to big yet.

  15. #15
    nWo's Avatar
    Join Date
    Aug 01
    Location
    Richmond,KY
    Posts
    39,999

    I just retweeted a video of the tornado near New Middletown.

Top