Marlins at Reds (5/4-5/6)

@MJAlltheWay24 got us a little momentum last week against the Braves and Twins, but like a lot of the Reds pitchers, his 3rd time thru the lineup didn't fair as well in the series against the Brewers. We'll give him a break this weekend, so he can focus on slinging some brews.

After a day off Thursday, the fish come to town for a 3 game set this weekend. Can the Reds rebound against the Marlins?

Friday: Wei-Yen Chen vs. Romano

Saturday: Caleb Smith vs. Tyler Mahle

Sunday: Dan Strailey vs. Brandon Finnegan

I'm going to go with at least 1 win out of those 3 (baby steps, people), which would, amazingly enough, raise their season win percentage.

Only 10 games out of 4th place. Time to make a move. It starts with taking down the fish.

Two miserable teams.

I have a hunch that it might be the most poorly attended bobblehead game in the 6 seasons I've worked at the ballpark. I'll be at a wedding that night.

I have a hunch that it might be the most poorly attended bobblehead game in the 6 seasons I've worked at the ballpark. I'll be at a wedding that night.

It'll be one of those games where people come thru the gate, grab the bobblehead, and head right back out. Announced attendance will be 12,000...but there'll only be 3000 in the seats.

Was talking to a co-worker today about the Reds, and apparently Scooter's been dealing with this shoulder issue all the way back to ST. He said he heard the theory is that they're holding out doing anything with him until the Super Two deadline passes, at which point they'll shut Scooter down for the year to have surgery and have 2B open for Senzel to man on a nightly basis.

If that's the plan, and it somewhat makes sense, they need to just shut him down now and play Blandino until Senzel clears Super Two.

Was talking to a co-worker today about the Reds, and apparently Scooter's been dealing with this shoulder issue all the way back to ST. He said he heard the theory is that they're holding out doing anything with him until the Super Two deadline passes, at which point they'll shut Scooter down for the year to have surgery and have 2B open for Senzel to man on a nightly basis.

 

If that's the plan, and it somewhat makes sense, they need to just shut him down now and play Blandino until Senzel clears Super Two.

When is the Super Two deadline?

When is the Super Two deadline?

It fluctuates a bit each year, but it's typically around the last couple days of May/first couple days of June.

The 2017 Super Two Status was 2.123. That means any rookie with more than 123 days of service time last year will qualify as a Super Two.

There's roughly ~183 days to a ML season. So for 2017, you'd take 183 - 123 = 60. So if a team wanted to avoid Super Two status they'd have to have kept a player down for more than 60 days of the league calendar year.

The big wildcard is the exact amount of service time to determine Super Two status isn't set until after the season as it depends on the # of players between 2-3 years of service and how much service time each of those players have. It's calculated off the top 22% of players that fall in those categories.

With that being said, over the past 10 seasons, it's fallen somewhere between 2.120 - 2.146. So if we go on the low end, a team should be safe calling up a player 64 days into the league year, and could potentially do so as early as 38 days into the season and still potentially avoid it.

If I'm doing it right, the league year began on March 28th. It ends on September 30th. That means we have 183 days (I don't believe All-Star break counts as time).

So with that being the case, we're sitting at day 36 of the league year. That would mean day 64 should fall on May 31st.

Now, I'm sure you're thoroughly more confused than before. :lol2:

At this point just wait.

At this point just wait.

Agreed. Go ahead and give Blandino some more AB's so that you know what you've got there.

If Senzel is on the Reds roster before September we might as well become Pirate fans.

At this point just wait.

Agreed. Senzel is clearly ready, probably one of the 2-3 most ready prospects in all of baseball, but does no good to bring him up before passing the Super Two deadline.

I get the whole keep Senzel down in the minors, but is there any certainty that the Reds will be markedly better and be contenders five years from now? The answer is NO. The pitching staff is in complete shambles and most of the trades this team has made the last few years have left them with little to nothing to show for it.

If I am running this outfit, there are only a few guys on the current 25 man roster who are untouchable.

Votto because of contract.

Suarez because he is the most productive young player they currently have.

Winker because he is the next closest thing to Votto at the plate.

Schebler because I think that he has things figured out a little at the plate.

Peraza because I think he is good enough to become a decent middle infielder for this team.

I will keep Iglesias, Garrett, Mahle, Castillo and maybe Romano.

The rest I can live without however not many of these guys have any value to another team which makes it the same old same old year in and year out.

I get the whole keep Senzel down in the minors, but is there any certainty that the Reds will be markedly better and be contenders five years from now? The answer is NO. The pitching staff is in complete shambles and most of the trades this team has made the last few years have left them with little to nothing to show for it.

 

If I am running this outfit, there are only a few guys on the current 25 man roster who are untouchable.

 

Votto because of contract.

Suarez because he is the most productive young player they currently have.

Winker because he is the next closest thing to Votto at the plate.

Schebler because I think that he has things figured out a little at the plate.

Peraza because I think he is good enough to become a decent middle infielder for this team.

I will keep Iglesias, Garrett, Mahle, Castillo and maybe Romano.

 

The rest I can live without however not many of these guys have any value to another team which makes it the same old same old year in and year out.

You just kept 40% of their roster. :lol2:

In all seriousness though, I'm not anywhere close to as bearish on the pitching as most.

Mahle has legit #2- #3 starter stuff. Kid is 23 years old.

Finnegan is still only 25. He's had a bunch of health issues, but just 2 years ago he was one of the biggest bright spots on the team. If he can get completely healthy and his feet under him, I think he can still be a solid contributing member of the staff, albeit I see his future in the bullpen.

Amir Garrett is a stud and 26. I'm not entirely sure why he wasn't given an opportunity in the rotation out of ST, but he's been outstanding this season.

Iglesias is filthy. Unfortunately he's being wasted on a bad team.

Keury Mella is 24 and dominating in the minors. He got a quick cup of coffee last September. He's got the stuff to be a back end of the rotation piece IMO.

Sal Romano is probably one of the most underrated guys in the Reds organization. He doesn't blow you away, but the kid has been pretty solid in his 22 career starts. He's got some control issues that he's slowly improving, but he looks like a middle of the rotation kind of guy to me. He's got 2.87 ERA in his last 3 starts.

Luis Castillo was phenomenal last season. Last night he took a big step forward (hopefully) in getting himself into form this year. He's got really good stuff and ton of potential.

Hunter Greene has top of the rotation stuff. Kid has the potential to be an ace.

Tony Santillan has been about as dominant as a pitcher can be so far in Daytona. He's 21 and should be a factor at some point in the next season or two.

On the offensive side of the ball, I envision a starting 8 of the below by 2020.

Tyler Stephenson

Joey Votto

Nick Senzel

Jeter Downs/Jose Peraza

Eugenio Suarez

Jesse Winker

Taylor Trammell

Jose Siri/Stuart Fairchild

Now can that win? I have no idea, but those guys sure are raking at their respective levels.

At this point just wait.

Agreed. Senzel is clearly ready, probably one of the 2-3 most ready prospects in all of baseball, but does no good to bring him up before passing the Super Two deadline.

I told you guys they'd wait until the Super Two deadline passed. I'm with you guys though. If Scooter needs surgery go ahead and shut him down and give Blandino 4 weeks of regular playing time.