Kentucky Derby 144

Only 5 weeks away. Big prep races yesterday.

FL Derby - Audible

UAE Derby - Mendelssohn

Mendelssohn was impressive-big strider...20+ length win seemed effortless.

My favorite prep weekend is almost upon us. Wood Memorial, Blue Grass Stakes and the Santa Anita Derby will all run in the span of about 90 mins on Saturday.

All three races will be on NBC Sports Network.

My favorite prep weekend is almost upon us. Wood Memorial, Blue Grass Stakes and the Santa Anita Derby will all run in the span of about 90 mins on Saturday.

 

All three races will be on NBC Sports Network.

Thoughts on these three races?

Thoughts on these three races?

FYI, We gave up our box for the Oaks, Still going but bought General admission!

FYI, We gave up our box for the Oaks, Still going but bought General admission!

Well, we'll be upstairs in the Jockey Club Suites this year.

Dang you! Free seats and you upgraded!

I guess I'll just go in with my grandstand tix and sneak my way upstairs or to the finish line!

Thoughts on these three races?

Boy, Justify made it hard to look past him. Looks good to extend the current streak of KY Derby favorites winning.

Boy, Justify made it hard to look past him. Looks good to extend the current streak of KY Derby favorites winning.

He did make it look pretty easy.

It obviously won’t be that easy in the Derby, but I can still see him being 5/2-3/1 at post time.

Thoughts on these three races?

First thought is that even though it’s two days later, if I’m one of the connections of Enticed, I’m still not sleeping well. Velasquez and Vino Rosso bumped that horse pretty good multiple times down the stretch and I really thought they’d take Rosso down a line. But Enticed is still on track for Churchill, so maybe it’s just a bump in the road.

Justify looks great and at this point looks like one that will definitely figure in to Derby wagering for me.

I’d love to see a Blue Grass Stakes winner in the circle at Churchill again, but as impressive as Good Magic looked, I’m not sure I’m super impressed with that field and he was pretty disappointing back in his last race in March. We’ll see but I’m not expecting a lot.

Arkansas Derby

1. Beautiful Shot, Keith Desormeaux, Richard Eramia, 30-1

2. Machismo, Anthony Quartarolo, Scott Spieth, 20-1

3. Tenfold, Steve Asmussen, Victor Espinoza, 10-1

4. Dream Baby Dream, Steve Asmussen, Luis Contreras, 15-1

5. Solomini, Bob Baffert, Flavien Prat, 2-1

6. Magnum Moon, Todd Pletcher, Luis Saez, 8-5

7. Plainsman, Will VanMeter, C.J. McMahon, 30-1

8. Quip, Rodolphe Brisset, Florent Geroux, 9-2

9. Combatant, Steve Asmussen, Ricardo Santana Jr., 6-1

Arkansas Derby

 

1. Beautiful Shot, Keith Desormeaux, Richard Eramia, 30-1

 

2. Machismo, Anthony Quartarolo, Scott Spieth, 20-1

 

3. Tenfold, Steve Asmussen, Victor Espinoza, 10-1

 

4. Dream Baby Dream, Steve Asmussen, Luis Contreras, 15-1

 

5. Solomini, Bob Baffert, Flavien Prat, 2-1

 

6. Magnum Moon, Todd Pletcher, Luis Saez, 8-5

 

7. Plainsman, Will VanMeter, C.J. McMahon, 30-1

 

8. Quip, Rodolphe Brisset, Florent Geroux, 9-2

 

9. Combatant, Steve Asmussen, Ricardo Santana Jr., 6-1

I like Quip at 9/2.

Arkansas Derby

 

1. Beautiful Shot, Keith Desormeaux, Richard Eramia, 30-1

 

2. Machismo, Anthony Quartarolo, Scott Spieth, 20-1

 

3. Tenfold, Steve Asmussen, Victor Espinoza, 10-1

 

4. Dream Baby Dream, Steve Asmussen, Luis Contreras, 15-1

 

5. Solomini, Bob Baffert, Flavien Prat, 2-1

 

6. Magnum Moon, Todd Pletcher, Luis Saez, 8-5

 

7. Plainsman, Will VanMeter, C.J. McMahon, 30-1

 

8. Quip, Rodolphe Brisset, Florent Geroux, 9-2

 

9. Combatant, Steve Asmussen, Ricardo Santana Jr., 6-1

They finished

1) Magnum Moon

2) Quip

3) Solomini

4) Combatant

5) Tenfold

6) Plainsman

7) Dream Baby Dream

8) Beautiful Shot

9) Machismo

Gronkowski is out for the Kentucky Derby with some sort of health issue, and Quip's owners decide not to race him for the Derby either.. That makes the current field:

Justify (9-5)

Magnum Moon (4-1)

Bolt d'Oro (5-1)

Mendelssohn (11-2)

Good Magic (7-1)

Audible (9-1)

Vino Rosso (12-1)

Enticed (18-1)

Noble Indy (18-1)

My Boy Jack (20-1)

Solomini (20-1)

Lone Sailor (25-1)

Flameaway (30-1)

Hofburg (35-1)

Promises Fulfilled (35-1)

Combatant (50-1)

Bravazo (50-1)

Free Drop Billy (50-1)

Well, we are two days away! Thought I'd bring this thread back up.

Looks like weather could play a part in this year's KY Derby. There looks to be a handful or so horses that don't mind a muddy track. If it is an off track I really like My Boy Jack.

If it's a fast track I like a combination of Audible, Good Magic and Mangnum Moon. I just can't bet a 5/2-3/1 shot, who is under Apollo's Curse (Justify) in a 20 horse field. I also like how Lone Sailor has looked in his works leading up to Saturday. Not sure if he can win, but might be worth a shot at putting in 2nd and 3rd in a trifecta.

Good luck to all!