Whitaker Bank / KHSAA First Round: Oldham County / McCracken County predictions

Oldham County Colonels (29-5, champions of the 8th Region)

vs

McCracken County Mustangs (28-6, champions of the 1st Region)

6:30 pm Thursday, March 15th

A quick snapshot of the two teams....

Oldham County Colonels:

- Points per game: 70.4 ppg

- points allowed / game: 54.8 ppg

- winners of 5 straight and 10 of their last 11.

- won the 29th district for the 8th season in a row (2nd-lowest such streak in KY; very impressive when you consider South Oldham is in the 29th, the team that won the 8th region three of the past six seasons)

- went 2-1 against other Sweet 16 teams, defeating 4th Region champ Warren Central and splitting two games vs. Region 5 champ John Hardin

- other major victories included wins over Walton-Verona (ranked #11 last Bluegrasspreps.com poll), Spencer County (20-8), Gallatin County (26-8), Collins 2x (22-10), Simon Kenton (19-10), Waggener (18-10).

- Ranked #6 in the state in shooting at 52+% per game.

- three all-region performers: Jackson Gibson 15.7 ppg, Zach Larimore 11.8 ppg, and Travis Henderson 15.9 ppg. Gibson and Larimore both went over 1,000 career points during the region 8 tournament.

- Seventh trip to the Sweet 16 since 2001 (7 trips in 18 seasons)

- Last Sweet 16: 2012

- First meeting with the Mustangs

McCracken County Mustangs

- Points per game: 61.5 ppg

- Points allowed / game: 47.7 ppg

- won five in a row and 17 of last 18

- won the 2nd district for the second year in a row and 3rd time in 5 years.

- Did not play any Sweet 16 teams

- One common opponent: South Oldham McCracken lost to the Dragons 70-54 on 12/28/17 at the Jeff and Julie Beyke Classic at South Oldham HS. Oldham County went 2-1 against South this year, most recently defeating the Dragons, 71-56, in the finals of the 8th region tournament.

- Major victories include wins over Mayfield (26-7, Mustangs 1-1 against), Graves County (26-9, Mustangs 2-1 against), Paducah Tilghman (19-10, Mustangs 3-0 against), Marshall County (19-12), Christian County (22-8), and Madisonville North-Hopkins (21-10).

- Second Sweet Sixteen appearance (last appearance: 2014)

- Relatively new school; just 5 years old. Cumulative record in just 5 years: 117-48 .709 McCracken has never had a losing record and has won 20+ games three straight seasons and 4 of the 5.

- This is the winningest Mustang team in the school's short history.

- Burlin Brower is the sole coach McCracken County has had in its five year history.

- Nathan Stonecipher 14.9 ppg, Cameron Cartwright 14.5 ppg, and Jackson Sivils 13.1 ppg lead the Mustangs.

Mod, can we get a poll?

Live audio broadcast beginning at 5:30 pm ET on The Pegasus Sports Network - PSN

I'll take the Colonels by 8.

Mod, can we get a poll?

Poll added, CM.

Terrific preview, as always! Thank you.

Oldham Co

Oldham Co

McCracken did lose to Apollo mid season, who is a Sweet 16 team.

Mustangs on a late 3.

I think this is one of the best 1st Round games -- and by extension, one of the hardest to figure. Oldham County was playing great basketball during the Holidays, and has the potential to really click. McCracken County survived the gauntlet this year in Region 1 and came out as the last team standing. I think if both teams played their level-best, Oldham would win a very close game, but as we know with 15-18 year olds on a stage like Rupp, getting the absolute best out of both teams is asking a ton.

I think this will be a great game, close and hard-fought, and I'm going to take McCracken County in a close game (4-6).

McCracken has the ability to really frustrate some teams with their matchup zone. Making 3's is a key to beating them. they swarm drivers and make it tough to get in the lane.

The flip side is that if McCracken isn't making 3's they are very average.

Oldham wins and advances to the Final Four

I don't know a lot about either team, but it always seems like the 1st Region finds a way to win a game in the Sweet 16. Like MTGL, I think this could be one of the best opening round contests, but give me the Mustangs by 4.

McCracken's close loss to Apollo in January seemed to provide the spark for a great second half of the season, marked by only one loss. I think they are ready to compete with quality teams in the Sweet Sixteen!

McCracken has one of the best pure shooters. Cartwright has an effortless release. His range is scary deep. This is sort of an Achilles heel to them also. They need those 3's to go in. A big part of their game is the long ball from outside. If those shots are falling they can hang with anyone. They have four guys who can fill it up from deep. All year long I've thought size would be their downfall, they keep proving me wrong. I won't pick against them but, I'm not picking them and jinx them.:idunno: