Prediction: District Alignments

First, this is only a prediction. Teams will have the option of playing up, and if several make that choice, it will blow this prediction to smithereens. I am simply making an educated guess based on past alignments, geography, distance between schools, and a desire to have all (or almost all) districts have at least four teams. If this isn't how it ultimately works out, please don't quote this post when you complain! :lol2:

CLASS 1A

District 1 - Crittenden County, Fulton City, Fulton County, Russellville

District 2 - Bethlehem, Campbellsville, Caverna, Fort Knox

District 3 - Eminence, Frankfort, Kentucky Country Day, Louisville Holy Cross, Trimble County

District 4 - Bellevue, Dayton, Ludlow, Newport Central Catholic

District 5 - Berea, Bishop Brossart, Nicholas County, Paris

District 6 - Fairview, Paintsville, Raceland

District 7 - Harlan, Lynn Camp, Pineville, Williamsburg

District 8 - Hazard, Jenkins, Phelps, Pikeville

For postseason competition in Class 1A, fifth place in District 3 plays as the fourth place team in District 6

CLASS 2A

District 1 - Ballard Memorial, Caldwell County, Fort Campbell, Mayfield, Murray

District 2 - Butler County, Edmonson County, Hancock County, McLean County, Owensboro Catholic, Todd County Central

District 3 - Clinton County, Green County, Metcalfe County, Monroe County, Washington County

District 4 - Danville, Lexington Christian, Middlesboro, Somerset

District 5 - Carroll County, Gallatin County, Owen County, Shawnee, Walton-Verona

District 6 - Beechwood, Bracken County, Covington Holy Cross, Lloyd Memorial, Newport

District 7 - Bath County, Betsy Layne, Prestonsburg, Sheldon Clark, West Carter

District 8 - Breathitt County, East Ridge, Knott County Central, Leslie County, Shelby Valley

CLASS 3A

District 1 - Paducah Tilghman, Trigg County, Union County, Webster County

District 2 - Adair County, Elizabethtown, Glasgow, Hart County, Larue County, Taylor County

District 3 - Bardstown, Central, Christian Academy-Louisville, DeSales, Nelson County, Thomas Nelson

District 4 - Boyle County, Garrard County, Henry County, Mercer County, Pendleton County, Western Hills

District 5 - Bell County, Casey County, Jackson County, McCreary Central

District 6 - Estill County, Magoffin County, Morgan County, Powell County

District 7 - East Carter, Fleming County, Greenup County, Lewis County, Mason County, Russell

District 8 - Belfry, Floyd Central, Lawrence County, Pike County Central

CLASS 4A

District 1 - Calloway County, Hopkins County Central, Madisonville-North Hopkins

District 2 - Allen County-Scottsville, Franklin-Simpson, Warren Central, Warren East

District 3 - Breckinridge County, John Hardin, Moore, Valley, Waggener, Western

District 4 - Franklin County, Marion County, North Oldham, Shelby County, Spencer County

District 5 - Bourbon County, Harrison County, Highlands, Holmes, Scott

District 6 - Ashland, Boyd County, Frederick Douglass, Lexington Catholic, Rowan County

District 7 - East Jessamine, Lincoln County, Rockcastle County, Russell County, Wayne County

District 8 - Clay County, Corbin, Harlan County, Knox Central, Letcher County Central, Perry County Central

For postseason competition in Class 4A, fifth place in District 3 plays as the fourth place team in District 1

CLASS 5A

District 1 - Christian County, Graves County, Hopkinsville, Ohio County, Owensboro

District 2 - Barren County, Bowling Green, Grayson County, Greenwood, Logan County, South Warren

District 3 - Bullitt Central, Collins, North Bullitt, South Oldham

District 4 - Atherton, Doss, Fairdale, Iroquois, Jeffersontown, Seneca

District 5 - Boone County, Conner, Cooper, Covington Catholic, Grant County

District 6 - Great Crossing, Johnson Central, Montgomery County, Scott County

District 7 - Anderson County, Madison Southern, West Jessamine, Woodford County

District 8 - North Laurel, Pulaski County, South Laurel, Southwestern, Whitley County

CLASS 6A

District 1 - Apollo, Daviess County, Henderson County, Marshall County, McCracken County

District 2 - Central Hardin, Meade County, Muhlenberg County, North Hardin

District 3 - Butler, DuPont Manual, Pleasure Ridge Park, St. Xavier

District 4 - Bullitt East, Fern Creek, Male, Southern

District 5 - Ballard, Eastern, Oldham County, Trinity

District 6 - Campbell County, Dixie Heights, Ryle, Simon Kenton

District 7 - Bryan Station, Henry Clay, Paul Dunbar

District 8 - George Rogers Clark, Lafayette, Madison Central, Tates Creek

For postseason competition in Class 6A, fifth place in District 1 plays as the fourth place team in District 7

Points of interest:

-In Class 1A, I'm predicting Bishop Brossart to continue playing in District 5 with their 10th Region brethren. They could easily be moved in with the four northern Kentucky schools, however. Class 1A looks very similar to how it has been drawn up in the past.

-In Class 2A, the addition of a few new eastern Kentucky schools means Danville/LCA/Somerset will no longer have to travel such long distances in the playoffs. Finding an appropriate place for Bath County and West Carter was difficult and they've both played up during the last two cycles. I suspect they'll do it again this time.

-In Class 3A, Pendleton County was almost impossible to place. Using this Time Calculator showed that it is one minute shorter on average from Falmouth to the schools in District 4 than those in District 7. Therefore Pendleton is shifted more toward central Kentucky.

-In Class 4A, unless someone plays up I don't see a situation where District 1 isn't a three-team group. With six teams in District 3, I've given their fifth place team a spot in the playoffs as the four seed in District 1. Since Districts 1 and 2 will always play in the playoffs, it makes sense to give the open spot to District 3 to minimize travel.

-Also in Class 4A, shifting the two Lexington schools east wasn't easy, especially with possible opponents in three neighboring counties. In order to make the alignment work and avoid four team districts as often as possible, the only real solution was to place them with Ashland, Boyd, and Rowan.

-In Class 5A, Johnson Central sticks out like a sore thumb. I placed them with Montgomery County and the two Scott County schools because it is easier travel and believe it or not, it is closer from Paintsville to those three locations than to any of the schools in District 7 (Anderson, Madison Southern, West Jessamine, Woodford) or District 8 (Laurels, Pulaskis, Whitley County).

-In Class 6A, the addition of a couple new western Kentucky teams and the subtraction of two central Kentucky teams complicated matters somewhat. My solution was to put five teams in District 1 with the fifth place team playing a long first round road game in Lexington. I'm not sure what else could be done.

Again, this is simply a prediction. I don't know who will play up. Once that information is known then everything, something, or nothing could change. We'll have to wait and see.

With marshall's lack of success in 5A, would they have to move up? That would make district 1 and 2 both have 6 teams. Apollo might not be ready for what's coming their way either. They had a special season last year, but they graduated key people and they have no coach. They could easily revert back to the 2-9 team they've been. The Apollo Daviess County game would take on a seriousness I haven't seen since the days of the Big eight conference. Wow, yes, that's old.

With all the debate about playing up, where do you have Highlands if they decide to go to 5A? I see you've listed them as playing 4A. If they went to district 5, that would put 6 teams in district 5 with 4 teams in district 6.

If your prediction is right I think that West Carter and Bath County might play 2A this cycle. The travel for District 7 2A would be shorter distance wise for West Carter. Also I would rather do district play with Betsy Layne, Prestonsburg, Sheldon Clark, and Bath County, oppose to NKY Teams. I think this District set up give a competitive chance for each team to have a shot at a District Title each year.

How do districts work with 5 teams? You play 4 district games while everyone else plays 3?

Johnson Central has a history either Laural Co and Pulaski Co schools. I don’t think that will be a factor but it fits them.

It will be nice interesting to see with Boone and a few others stay in 5A or it play up.

In looking at your 6A prediction I tried my best to find something I didn't like about it but I couldn't. I like going back to 3 4 team districts for Metro Louisville and I like that the "power" is spread out. I really like Male and Manual being in different districts. They could now go back to what used to be the traditional last game of their seasons.

If Boyle County stays in 3A then I’d love to see them in a district with Casey County. If Boyle County moves up to 4A the potential district with them, LexCath, Frederick Douglass and East Jessamine could be a possibility.

I still wouldn't be surprised to see Fleming and Mason end up in the district with Powell, Estill, etc... They have been there before.

If Boyle County stays in 3A then I’d love to see them in a district with Casey County. If Boyle County moves up to 4A the potential district with them, LexCath, Frederick Douglass and East Jessamine could be a possibility.

Yes Mercer, Garrard, Boyle, Casey, and Western Hills would make a good district.

If Boyle County stays in 3A then I’d love to see them in a district with Casey County. If Boyle County moves up to 4A the potential district with them, LexCath, Frederick Douglass and East Jessamine could be a possibility.

That sounds much better than putting them in with Ashland, Boyd and Rowan to me. I'm just not sure what would happen with district 6 in that scenario though, would it just be a 3 team district?

I'm really not going to be happy with the KHSAA if they stick 6A Frederick Douglas in a district with Ashland, one of the smallest 4A schools. :ohbrother:

First, this is only a prediction. Teams will have the option of playing up, and if several make that choice, it will blow this prediction to smithereens. I am simply making an educated guess based on past alignments, geography, distance between schools, and a desire to have all (or almost all) districts have at least four teams. If this isn't how it ultimately works out, please don't quote this post when you complain! :lol2:

 

CLASS 1A

District 1 - Crittenden County, Fulton City, Fulton County, Russellville

District 2 - Bethlehem, Campbellsville, Caverna, Fort Knox

District 3 - Eminence, Frankfort, Kentucky Country Day, Louisville Holy Cross, Trimble County

District 4 - Bellevue, Dayton, Ludlow, Newport Central Catholic

District 5 - Berea, Bishop Brossart, Nicholas County, Paris

District 6 - Fairview, Paintsville, Raceland

District 7 - Harlan, Lynn Camp, Pineville, Williamsburg

District 8 - Hazard, Jenkins, Phelps, Pikeville

 

For postseason competition in Class 1A, fifth place in District 3 plays as the fourth place team in District 6

 

CLASS 2A

District 1 - Ballard Memorial, Caldwell County, Fort Campbell, Mayfield, Murray

District 2 - Butler County, Edmonson County, Hancock County, McLean County, Owensboro Catholic, Todd County Central

District 3 - Clinton County, Green County, Metcalfe County, Monroe County, Washington County

District 4 - Danville, Lexington Christian, Middlesboro, Somerset

District 5 - Carroll County, Gallatin County, Owen County, Shawnee, Walton-Verona

District 6 - Beechwood, Bracken County, Covington Holy Cross, Lloyd Memorial, Newport

District 7 - Bath County, Betsy Layne, Prestonsburg, Sheldon Clark, West Carter

District 8 - Breathitt County, East Ridge, Knott County Central, Leslie County, Shelby Valley

 

CLASS 3A

District 1 - Paducah Tilghman, Trigg County, Union County, Webster County

District 2 - Adair County, Elizabethtown, Glasgow, Hart County, Larue County, Taylor County

District 3 - Bardstown, Central, Christian Academy-Louisville, DeSales, Nelson County, Thomas Nelson

District 4 - Boyle County, Garrard County, Henry County, Mercer County, Pendleton County, Western Hills

District 5 - Bell County, Casey County, Jackson County, McCreary Central

District 6 - Estill County, Magoffin County, Morgan County, Powell County

District 7 - East Carter, Fleming County, Greenup County, Lewis County, Mason County, Russell

District 8 - Belfry, Floyd Central, Lawrence County, Pike County Central

 

CLASS 4A

District 1 - Calloway County, Hopkins County Central, Madisonville-North Hopkins

District 2 - Allen County-Scottsville, Franklin-Simpson, Warren Central, Warren East

District 3 - Breckinridge County, John Hardin, Moore, Valley, Waggener, Western

District 4 - Franklin County, Marion County, North Oldham, Shelby County, Spencer County

District 5 - Bourbon County, Harrison County, Highlands, Holmes, Scott

District 6 - Ashland, Boyd County, Frederick Douglass, Lexington Catholic, Rowan County

District 7 - East Jessamine, Lincoln County, Rockcastle County, Russell County, Wayne County

District 8 - Clay County, Corbin, Harlan County, Knox Central, Letcher County Central, Perry County Central

 

For postseason competition in Class 4A, fifth place in District 3 plays as the fourth place team in District 1

 

CLASS 5A

District 1 - Christian County, Graves County, Hopkinsville, Ohio County, Owensboro

District 2 - Barren County, Bowling Green, Grayson County, Greenwood, Logan County, South Warren

District 3 - Bullitt Central, Collins, North Bullitt, South Oldham

District 4 - Atherton, Doss, Fairdale, Iroquois, Jeffersontown, Seneca

District 5 - Boone County, Conner, Cooper, Covington Catholic, Grant County

District 6 - Great Crossing, Johnson Central, Montgomery County, Scott County

District 7 - Anderson County, Madison Southern, West Jessamine, Woodford County

District 8 - North Laurel, Pulaski County, South Laurel, Southwestern, Whitley County

 

CLASS 6A

District 1 - Apollo, Daviess County, Henderson County, Marshall County, McCracken County

District 2 - Central Hardin, Meade County, Muhlenberg County, North Hardin

District 3 - Butler, DuPont Manual, Pleasure Ridge Park, St. Xavier

District 4 - Bullitt East, Fern Creek, Male, Southern

District 5 - Ballard, Eastern, Oldham County, Trinity

District 6 - Campbell County, Dixie Heights, Ryle, Simon Kenton

District 7 - Bryan Station, Henry Clay, Paul Dunbar

District 8 - George Rogers Clark, Lafayette, Madison Central, Tates Creek

 

For postseason competition in Class 6A, fifth place in District 1 plays as the fourth place team in District 7

Dang, that's a murder district for my local teams.

You're better at this than I am. Is there no way to create a district with Bardstown, NC, TNHS, E'town and LaRue? Because it's a highly logical district, geographically.

Dang, that's a murder district for my local teams.

 

You're better at this than I am. Is there no way to create a district with Bardstown, NC, TNHS, E'town and LaRue? Because it's a highly logical district, geographically.

The problem is there are eight 5th region teams in Class 3A. They tend to push the central time teams west (Adair County/Hart County) and with Glasgow already there, I'm guessing the Nelson schools would be too far away from those three, while much closer to the Louisville teams, therefore putting them in District 3.

So Bracken County to 2A is for sure?