5A #5 South Oldham vs Bullitt Central predictions

Who wins? Why?

A big game in Crestwood Friday....South Oldham can close in another district title with a win over Bullitt Central. A Dragon victory would cinch the regular season crown. On the other hand, a Cougar victory could put the Shepherdsville squad in first (with head to head over South, and if Bullitt East should lose to North Bullitt) or in a three-way tie for first with South, and Bullitt East (if the Chargers beat North Bullitt next week).

These are two of the highest-ranked scoring defenses in the state. Since opening the season with a 28-14 loss to defending 2A State Champion Christian Academy of Louisville, the Dragons have ripped off six straight victories, and have not allowed more than 14 points in those six games. The Dragons have three shutouts in that span.

Bullitt Central has not allowed over 19 points all season....They allowed 19 points each of the past two weeks, losing to Bullitt East and edging Oldham County by 2... The Cougars have shutout two opponents this season.

Both teams also like to run the ball. Daylin Huff and Zac Clark are one of the best 1-2 punches on the ground in the metro Louisville area. Both average over 100 yards rushing a game. South will counter with a multi-headed monster, giving multiple runners the ball, led by star sophomore fullback Keaton Martin, who entered yesterday's game with Bullitt East averaging 93 yards a game.

A high scoring game would figure to favor the Dragons on their home turf. BC will want this to be a low-scoring affair.

South has defeated Bullitt Central 7 consecutive times in the series, including a 37-0 drubbing in the second round of last year's 5A playoffs. The last Cougar win was in 2010, when Jamie Reed's first South team lost to BC in the first round of the playoffs, 28-21.

Live video coverage of the game will begin on the Pegasus Sports Network at 7 pm ET Friday 10/13/17.

The Pegasus Sports Network - PSN

CM

P.S. - Rats! Forgot to add a poll. Can I get a mod to add a poll? Thank you.

Good overview @ColonelMike of what should be a good game between these two. What decided this game last season was South's passing attack. BC crowded the box and dared South to beat them passing. Zaubi ended up 8-14 312 yds 4 TDs. They also rushed for 150 yards. They met again in the playoffs and Zaubi was 7-12 153 yds 3 TDs. They also rushed for 176 yards. South outscored them 76-7 with 465 yards and 7 TDs through the air for the two games.

This season South has thrown for over 700 yards and 12 TDs where BC has thrown for 237 yds and 3 TDs. If BC tries to crowd the box again look for South to air it out! BC will have to try to pass or South's defense will bottle them up. Believe South rolls again!

If BC can force 2 turnovers I like their chances for an upset. When South Oldham struggles they usually turn it over.

I like South Oldham big in this game.

If BC can force 2 turnovers I like their chances for an upset. When South Oldham struggles they usually turn it over.

I will say this, Bullitt Central certainly doesn't appear to be turnover-prone themselves - they don't put the ball in the air much at all, and their runners seem very sure-handed - so if they should win the turnover battle, that certainly helps their upset cause....but...

That might not be the hope that the Cougars want to hang their hats on. Drew Zaubi has thrown just one pick in their first six games (haven't seen the stats from Friday's Bullitt East game yet) and haven't been very prone to fumbles. We did see them cough the ball up twice against North Oldham - but they won that game, anyway, 49-0, in part because they forced 6 turnovers by North.

They lost two fumbles against Oldham - but won, 16-6, after picking off four passes and recovering two fumbles lost by OC. South won the turnover battle against Boone County, 4-1, and against Doss, 2-1.

I think - again, I haven't seen the South-BE stats - that the only game South hasn't been positive in the turnover battle was in the 28-14 loss to CAL, where both teams had two turnovers (I THINK...CAL's stats show that they got two picks, but South's stats only reflect one INT thrown by Dragon passers....)

Of course, we never know. These are HS kids. South might have six turnovers Friday - but they sure haven't shown that propensity to date.

Just my thoughts....if I'm BC Coach Matt Kuehn, I think my best bet is the time of possession. If the Cougars can use that big offensive line and run Zac Clark and Daylin Huff for big, grind-it-out, time-consuming drives, I like their chances better for an upset.

But...I still have to take South by multiple scores in this one. BC is definitely one of the up-and-comers locally, and I think Coach Kuehn has done / is doing a fantastic job in Shepherdsville. But I think South is a little further along; their defense has size and speed, and their offense can throw a lot of weapons at you.

This could be a really fun game to broadcast...

Make it Dragons 28-7. The South Oldham QB is one of the better players in the Commonwealth.

The marbles are all out there on Friday in Crestwood....

I wouldn't want to miss this one....but if you have to, check out the video coverage at The Pegasus Sports Network - PSN

My keys to the game:

Bullitt Central

> Win the time of possession convincingly to keep that potent SO offense off the field. Bullitt Central has to do what they do best: put together long, time-consuming drives behind that big offensive line and those two talented backs. This gives BC their best chance at an upset.

> Do something I don't think anybody has done this year against South - win the turnover battle. Bonus points if you can take the ball away in South territory. (NOTE: Bullitt East did not record interceptions / fumble recoveries online from their game vs. South last week, so I'm not entirely sure who won that turnover battle.)

> Win most of the 50-50 plays, or get something big out of special teams.

South Oldham

> On defense, win first down consistently, and put BC in 3rd and long consistently. Find a way to force the Cougars to the air.

> Be the aggressor on defense. South has more team speed on defense; the Dragons need to put that methodical BC offense on its heels by winning the battle of the line and getting penetration to bust up the Cougar rushing attack.

> Make the "dink and dunk" passing game work. South QB Drew Zaubi has a stable of talented pass-catchers at running back, and he should find plenty of open players out of the backfield in the passing game against BC. Friday might be the time South sets up the run with the pass, instead of vice-versa.

South Oldham will dominate this district until they do realignment. Not a very strong district unless B-East can improve.

South did not turn the ball over vs Bullitt East. I look for Coach Reed to see how BC lines up defensively at the beginning and go from there. I still believe South will go over the top if BC crowds the box -- unless the DBs are playing that far back. If they do that then the short passing game will come into play.

BC gave up the short to intermediate stuff against Oldham last week, and the Colonels took advantage in the second half. If it hadn't been for penalties on the conversions, Oldham likely would have completed the comeback and won.

Not sure I look for Coach Kuehn to give up the short stuff so easily this week...against Oldham, he was facing a sophomore backup QB (and in the second half, the third string sophomore QB). This week, he'll be facing a three year starter in senior Drew Zaubi, who can make all the throws. I'm thinking BC may try multiple defensive looks to try to keep South guessing.

I think you're right, Bobcat; South has so many weapons, Jamie Reed will likely come out with a boxer's mentality early and try to feel out the BC defense. I'm thinking the key players tonight for South Oldham just might be the wings - Colton Bowlden is an excellent receiver out of the backfield - and wideouts like Drake Silcox, who work the underneath routes.

South's a deeper team; BC will start about 5 guys both ways. That may play into this when all is said and done.

Looking forward to broadcasting this one!!