Hurricane Maria

Those who are located in the Florida Keys, US east coast and other areas hit by Hurricane Irma should keep an eye on Tropical Storm Maria. With the 5 pm, EDT update from the National Hurricane Center the depression has become a tropical storm. It has maximum sustained winds at 5 mph. Movement is west at 20 mph.

Maria is forecast to strengthen in the next 48 hrs and become a hurricane when it approaches the Leeward Islands early next week.

Then we'll need to watch Tropical Storm Lee after Maria.

I will be watching this closely and post updates when possible as we get closer.

While Maria is still a tropical storm hurricane watches have been issued. Maria is expected to become a major hurricane by the middle of next week.

Hurricane Watch issued for some of the same areas hit by Irma.

THE GOVERNMENT OF ANTIGUA HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WATCH FOR

ANTIGUA... BARBUDA... ST. KITTS... NEVIS...AND MONTSERRAT.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...

* ANTIGUA...BARBUDA...ST. KITTS...NEVIS...AND MONTSERRAT

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...

* ST. LUCIA

* MARTINIQUE

* GUADELOUPE

* DOMINICA

* BARBADOS

* ST. VINCENT AND THE GRENADINES

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE

WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS

BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE

WINDS... CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR

DANGEROUS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE

POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA... GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE LESSER ANTILLES SHOULD MONITOR THE

PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. ADDITIONAL TROPICAL STORM OR HURRICANE

WATCHES WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED TONIGHT OR EARLY SUNDAY.

The 2:00 AM update from the National Hurricane Center

The center of Tropical Storm Maria was

located near latitude 12.7 North, longitude 54.4 West. Maria is

moving toward the west near 16 mph. A turn toward the

west-northwest and a slower forward speed are expected during next

couple of days. On the forecast track, the center of Maria will be

near the Leeward Islands Monday or Monday night.

Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph with higher

gusts. Strengthening is expected during the next 48 hours, and

Maria is forecast to be a hurricane when it approaches the Leeward

Islands.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles from the center.

Maria is expected to remain in an environment of good moisture, light shear, and warm sea surface temperatures for at least the next 4 days. This should result in steady to rapid intensification.The new intensity forecast is similar to the previous forecast in calling for Maria to become a hurricane in 24 h and a major hurricane in 72 h, and it lies at the upper edge of the intensity guidance. However, rapid intensification is a distinct possibility, and it would be no surprise if Maria got significantly stronger than currently forecast.

What's the chances of Maria turning northward and away from the US coast like Jose did?

What's the chances of Maria turning northward and away from the US coast like Jose did?

It's possible but way too far in the future to accurately predict its path. The GFS has it making a northerly turn and missing Florida but the Canadian GDPS has it making landfall in southern Florida on the 24th and moving up the east coast of Florida into Georgia.

Leewards taking another shot. This is rough year for the islands.

5:00 pm 9/17/17 update:

Maria has become a Cat 1 hurricane. The center of Hurricane Maria was located by an Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft near latitude 13.8North, longitude 57.5 West. Maria is moving toward the west-northwest near 15 mph, and this motion with a decrease in forward speed is expected through Tuesday. On the forecast track, the center of Maria will move across the LeewardIslands Monday night and then over the extreme northeastern Caribbean Sea on Tuesday.Reconnaissance data indicate that maximum sustained winds have increased to near 75 mph with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and Maria could be near major hurricane intensity when it moves across the LeewardIslands Monday night.

At 200 AM, 9/18/17. the center of Hurricane Maria was located by Martinique radar near latitude 14.4 North, longitude 59.0 West.Maria is moving toward the west-northwest near 13 mph, and this motion with a decrease in forward speed is expected through Tuesday night. On the forecast track, the center of Maria will move across the Leeward Islands late today and tonight and then over the extreme northeastern Caribbean Sea Tuesday and Tuesday night.Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 90 mph with higher gusts. Rapid strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and Maria is expected to become a major hurricane before it moves through the Leeward Islands.Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 15 miles from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105miles (165 km).

Up to a CAT 3 now.

Just looked at the latest GFS model run. It is showing landfall along the South Carolina North Carolina border for Maria. Remember this is the almost the exact same thing it showed for Irma around a week or more away from the predicted landfall date. Please note now that this doesn't necessarily mean Maria will make landfall near that region but I think it is worth noting this is what it also showed for Irma and we all know where Irma finally hit the mainland US.

Everyone in those areas should keep an eye on Maria as we get closer to the possible landfall.

The sustained winds are 125 mph, now, too.

This hurricane season is basically ridiculous now.

The sustained winds are 125 mph, now, too.

The 5 pm update has the sustained winds now at 130 mph. Maria is now an extremely dangerous category 4 hurricane.

Any chance this thing turns north then northeast and heads back out to sea? I know it's too early to really tell, but are any of the models predicting that @nWo?

Any chance this thing turns north then northeast and heads back out to sea? I know it's too early to really tell, but are any of the models predicting that @nWo?

Some do but remember some were showing Irma taking a more northerly track also early on. We have almost the same setup. A high-pressure ridge or system over the Atlantic. It will depend on how strong that system becomes. Just like with Irma this will be the steering mechanism that could force Maria to hit the US coast somewhere if it is strong or strength increases. If it is weak Maria could quite possibly miss the US entirely. Only time will tell.