article Inside the 15th Region (1-9-17)

Overview: Lawrence County continues to surprise behind Timmy Dalton, Sheldon Clark looks to get healthy, and Johnson Central is still the team to beat. Let’s see how the rankings pan out after six weeks of play.

1. Johnson Central (11-3) – Johnson Central remains at the top after six weeks of play with two less losses than any team in the region despite dropping two of three in the Henry County Invitational. Mason Blair and Cole Crace lead the way as one of the most dynamic backcourts in the state and with 7-footer Leon Moshefy getting better every day, the Golden Eagles will look to round into post season form late in January. Mason Blair is on pace to break the season made 3FG and career made 3FG state records as he is second in the nation in made 3FG per game per max preps. Week seven will see JC open district play with Magoffin on the road and Paintsville at home. Look for packed gyms this week!

2. Sheldon Clark (9-6) – Don’t read too much into some of the recent losses by the Cardinals as they have been without their best player in Dylan James (continues to recover from an ankle injury). The Cardinals are deep, can shoot, and have go to scorers when the game is tight. Once James returns to full strength they will be a stronger force then they already are. Sheldon Clark will look to wrap up the All-A Title this week as they are the favorite.

3. Lawrence County (10-6) – The young Bulldogs has a stud in Timmy Dalton and he continues to lead them. Dalton is currently 2nd in the nation in scoring per max preps at nearly 38 ppg (also averages double digit rebounds) while shooting in the 60% range from the field. Lawrence did drop their third match-up of the season with Lewis County after blowing them out in the previous two. Dalton will take the Bulldogs into 60th district play as they have key games with Belfry and Phelps this week.

4. Magoffin County (10-6) – The Hornets are very good but very thin in depth. Their first five can play with anyone in the region but sometimes run out of gas late as seen in the WYTM Classic where they dropped two of three. Jaren Lovely and Trenton Russell are a dynamic duo that can both go for 30 plus on a given night. Magoffin will need big performances from them as district seeding is on the line in week seven with Johnson Central coming into town. Should be a great atmosphere in Salyersville!

5. Pikeville (8-5) – Pikeville has nice talent and a go to player in Wyatt Battaile (best junior in the region), but has yet to get an impressive win. The soft schedule will harden up this week as they will face district rival East Ridge in the All-A semifinals then follow that up with what should be Sheldon Clark. The Panthers can move up with wins this week against better competition.

6. Paintsville (6-6) – The Tigers are better than expected under first year coach Landon Slone. They have yet to be competitive against the better teams in the region, but have held their own against everyone else. If they shoot well, Paintsville will be in every regional contest with their effort and pressure. They have a huge contest with cross town rival Johnson Central is week seven. If not in the 57th, Paintsville would be a solid pick to make it to the regional tournament.

7. East Ridge (7-5) – The Warriors are in the All-A regional semifinals yet again as they face district foe Pikeville next. They will also face Shelby Valley is a seeded contest this week as the fighting Randy McCoy’s continue their controlled tempo and deliberate style. East Ridge could make a claim to be rated higher and will definitely have a chance to do so this week.

8. South Floyd (8-5) – South Floyd has the second leading rebounder in the state and solid guard play in the back court. They will face Sheldon Clark (All-A), Betsy Layne, and Johnson Central in week seven, coming in as underdogs in all but one game. South Floyd is a sleeper that could make a lot of noise down the stretch. With wins this week could jump several spots.

9. Belfry (5-6) – Lawrence County, Phelps and Pikeville await the Pirates in week seven as they face two 60th district opponents for seeding purposes. Belfry has lots of athleticism and like Paintsville are tough to beat when they shoot it well. Time will tell if they are contenders or pretenders.

10. Pike Central (7-6) – The Hawks have great inside play with Eads and Wallace controlling the interior. What they are lacking is consistent guard play. If Coach Whitaker can bring his back court along, Pike Central could make a mid-season push up the rankings. For now they are near the bottom, but unlike other teams, have potential.

11. Shelby Valley (8-6) – The Wildcats are young, but still without a quality win. They will have a chance to get one in week seven as they play East Ridge and Knott Central. Cody Potter is playing well and second in the state in made 3FG per game (Mason Blair of Johnson Central is number one). Can the Wildcats put together four quarters against a strong opponent?

12. Allen Central (4-11) – The Rebels have lost seven in a row and 11 of their last 12 after opening 3-0 on the season. They play hard but struggle to score in long stretches. Luckily they are in the 58th District and still favored to get into the regional tournament. Paintsville and Prestonsburg will come calling in week seven.

13. Phelps (6-7) – Junior standout Christian Mounts scored his 1,000th point in week six as he hopes to lead Phelps to its first winning season since the 2011-2012 campaign. With his athleticism and play making ability it might be possible. Phelps will run the 60th District gauntlet in week seven as they face Lawrence County, Pike Central, and Belfry. They will be underdogs in all three put could pull an upset.

14. Prestonsburg (3-12) – Prestonsburg is young and thankfully in the 58th District. If they keep improving they have a punchers chance of making to the regional tournament. They will face Pike Central and District foe Allen Central in week seven.

15. Betsy Layne (1-14) – The Bobcats picked up their first win of the season versus another winless team in Metcalf County (overtime). Betsy Layne is young and improving as their scores are getting closer, but the long season will continue for coach Keathley.

16. Piarist (1-13) – The Knights are no longer on the list of teams without a win. They have a chance to possible pick up another later in the season but week seven should see more of the same.

Agree or Disagree?

Note: Look for a decision and announcement to be made about district realignment and possible super regional in the coming weeks. Designated representatives are discussing the issues and needed change as Floyd Central will create a 3 team district next year. Lots of options are on the table so it should be interesting to see what is decided.

Missed your recap last week.

What can you tell me about this "Super Regional". I've never heard of such a thing in KY.

Also, I'm pretty sure Mason Blair broke the record for most 3PT attempts in a career about 2 years ago lol.

Long term, I think their best scoring option is Cole Crace. Shooting 10% higher from the field and not taking 16 3s per game like Blair.

Missed your recap last week.

 

What can you tell me about this "Super Regional". I've never heard of such a thing in KY.

 

Also, I'm pretty sure Mason Blair broke the record for most 3PT attempts in a career about 2 years ago lol.

 

Long term, I think their best scoring option is Cole Crace. Shooting 10% higher from the field and not taking 16 3s per game like Blair.

Super regional is an idea being thrown around about letting every team compete in the regional tournament and either using district tournaments as seeding or regular season play as seeding (option two having no district tournaments). Super regional was done in the 15th Region in 2006 where more than 8 teams were allowed in. You might see it go back to this. You might see the regional tourney pulled from the EXPO center as this is the last year on a ten year contract. You might see teams from other regions brought into this region. You might see districts look very different. Change is likely coming.

Was very busy and missed the recap last week, but will make it up with an extended post season preview.

Mason Blair should break the attempts record, but that is not was I was referring to. The made 3FG record is what was highlighted (both season and career).

Cole Crace is an outstanding scoring option and almost unstoppable against man defense. When a packed in zone is in place you need shooting and that's where Blair gets you. It's hard to say which one is the better scoring option as the defense dictates that on a given night. What you can say is both are very good at putting the ball in the basket.

Blair is taking 16 3FG's a game but making almost 6 of those. Using advanced analytics the 10% difference in FG percentage is weighted more toward 3FG as they are worth more points. Think about it. Cole shoots 100 shots and make 60 of them then you get 120 points. Mason shoots 100 3FG and makes 45 of them then you get 135 points. 15% less makes yet 15 more points. Point: One kills you at the rim and one kills you from deep. Johnson Central will need them both doing what they do to win the region as they complement each other. Looking at one as a better option over the other is an incorrect way to approach it as they both score very differently.

Personally, I hate the idea of a super regional.

"Almost" 6 out of 16 is nowhere near 45% so not sure 45 out of 100 is really the fair comparison ..

Super regional is an idea being thrown around about letting every team compete in the regional tournament and either using district tournaments as seeding or regular season play as seeding (option two having no district tournaments). Super regional was done in the 15th Region in 2006 where more than 8 teams were allowed in. You might see it go back to this. You might see the regional tourney pulled from the EXPO center as this is the last year on a ten year contract. You might see teams from other regions brought into this region. You might see districts look very different. Change is likely coming.

 

Was very busy and missed the recap last week, but will make it up with an extended post season preview.

 

Mason Blair should break the attempts record, but that is not was I was referring to. The made 3FG record is what was highlighted (both season and career).

 

Cole Crace is an outstanding scoring option and almost unstoppable against man defense. When a packed in zone is in place you need shooting and that's where Blair gets you. It's hard to say which one is the better scoring option as the defense dictates that on a given night. What you can say is both are very good at putting the ball in the basket.

 

Blair is taking 16 3FG's a game but making almost 6 of those. Using advanced analytics the 10% difference in FG percentage is weighted more toward 3FG as they are worth more points. Think about it. Cole shoots 100 shots and make 60 of them then you get 120 points. Mason shoots 100 3FG and makes 45 of them then you get 135 points. 15% less makes yet 15 more points. Point: One kills you at the rim and one kills you from deep. Johnson Central will need them both doing what they do to win the region as they complement each other. Looking at one as a better option over the other is an incorrect way to approach it as they both score very differently.

Cole is shooting 56% overall, and Blair is shooting 37% from 3's, not 45%. So with what you stated based on 100 shot attempts Cole will get you 112 points and Blair 111 points. Maybe Cole is the better option....

6-16 is 37.5%

That's not bad.

Cole is shooting 56% overall, and Blair is shooting 37% from 3's, not 45%. So with what you stated based on 100 shot attempts Cole will get you 112 points and Blair 111 points. Maybe Cole is the better option....

The point I am trying to make is there is not one option over the other. If there are jump traps and double teams on Cole then Mason will knock down shots. If there are box and ones and man to man defense on Mason then Cole will kill you going to the rim. They are equally efficient at scoring the ball in different ways and need each other to keep the defense honest, thus playing to their individual skill sets. They are both option A on a given night.

Now if you wanna talk about other stats, then Cole is superior in rebounding, assists, steals, and defensive efficiency. But pure scoring, there is very little difference in their efficiency regardless who gets the most shots on a give night. Dont get me wrong, Crace is extremely good and will be a steal for some college. All around he is JC's best player.

See below from Zack Klemme's twitter. This is the KHSAA Board of Controls Work Session Notes concerning 15th Region alignment and tournament policy. Wonder what changes we will see?

Big win for Magoffin County tonight