article Class 2A Notebook 11/12- Now We Get Serious

Region I In Review

It takes more than one man to beat Mayfield, for Butler County this could never be more clear as for the second consecutive season Butler County saw their season end in lopsided fashion at the hands of the Cardinals. Rex Henderson's unbelievable career comes to a close, but the Cardinals move on.

Murray is not used to losing seasons and tried their best to salvage a disappointing year with a First Round win over McLean County. The Tigers though could not parlay that into any further momentum as Owensboro Catholic held serve 47-13. Owensboro Catholic had fallen to Murray four consecutive times until finally getting over the hump last season, the Aces now are looking to become the aggressor in the series.

Region I Prediction

Owensboro Catholic (11-1) will be viewed by many as a pretty heavy underdog entering the Regional Finals match-up with Mayfield (13-0) and for good reason out of the Aces control. The Cardinals are simply "that good" and have proven themselves the "Class of the Class". It would be very easy to discredit the Aces chances especially when considering Mayfield defeated them 24-13 this time last season and the Aces were hit heavy by graduation.

With that said, The Notebook doesn't subscribe to the theory that history is doomed to repeat itself and views the Aces as a scary type of team. Mayfield does not have an apparent Achilles' heel, but the Cards are also far from unbeatable as proven by some narrow games in the regular season and a couple performances where the Defense seemed a bit shaky. Catholic has perhaps one of the best wins in Class 2A when they defeated 5A Regional Finalist Owensboro. The Aces have great balance on Offense and might be able to make this game a little too close for comfort. If you are looking for chaos and an upset, Catholic certainly has the tools, but at the same time Mayfield has built their program on winning tough Regional Finals games when the bullseye is squarely on their chest. The Notebook cannot go against the Defending Champs, but will warn everyone that if an upset did happen don't be so surprised.

Region I Predicted Winner: Mayfield

Region II in Review

DeSales looked like a team ready to compete for the Class 2A State championship for a little over a Half as they screamed out to a big lead against Glasgow down in Barren River Lake country. Then, the Colts kind of pulled up lame and let the Scotties storm back to get within ten points. Ultimately DeSales was able to right the ship and close out the game, but for a Defense that had seemingly looked invincible the last half of the season the late Scottie surge has to create a little self doubt.

CAL had a much easier go of it taking on Washington County. The Centurions barely broke a sweat polishing off a 42-0 whitewashing of the Commanders. CAL held Washington County to a paltry 25 total yards as the Centurions let the running clock carry them into the Regional Finals.

Region II Prediction

Well here we go again... Death, Taxes, and CAL vs. DeSales for the Regional Title.

I am going to pretend you are following 2A Football for the very first time and do not understand the rivalry and recent history:

- The past four seasons these teams have both been among the Top 5 Class 2A teams in the State

- The past four seasons CAL has won the regular season meeting and District title.

- The past four season these teams have advanced to the Regional Finals

- The past four season DeSales has rebounded to win the Regional Championship on the road defeating the Centurions.

- CAL is yet to advance to the State Semi-Finals, DeSales has won two State Titles and also had a Runner-Up finish.

So here we are, year number five and guess who won the regular season meeting? Yep.. CAL (11-1) defeated the Colts (10-2) on their home field 12-7 in a physical battle. Logic would suggest that DeSales would be the pick, but just as we already mentioned above The Notebook subscribes to the more tangible things. So why will the trend change? In year's past DeSales was the team with the "Jim's and Joe's" and when two evenly matched teams fought valiantly, it was these individual playmakers who rose to the occasion and changed the course of the game. In 2016 CAL is now the team with the playmakers as SR Jacob Paulson and SOPH Milton Wright will be the two biggest stars in a cast of excellent players. Expect both defenses to get the job done, but for CAL to hit a few more game breaking plays in another Instant Classic type of game.

Region II Predicted Winner: Christian Academy- Louisville

Region III in Review

The Notebook warned that "chalk" was trend to follow in Class 2A in Round 2 and it held form, but thanks to the Walton-Verona vs. Covington Holy Cross match-up that prediction was certainly pushed to it's limit. Walton-Verona was the whipping post of District 6's top teams during the regular season, but the Bearcats used short term memory loss to move toward the present and nearly pulled a shocking upset over the Indians before falling 13-10. The Indians had to withstand two late drives and needed a blocked Field Goal among them to prevail.

Newport Central Catholic had far less drama as they easily handled Lloyd Memorial 48-14. This was the second time this season that the Thoroughbreds had defeated the Juggernauts after winning the regular season game by a far less lopsided margin. The key to the Throughbreds was QB Patrick Henschen who played very well both throwing the ball and by keep Lloyd honest with his feet.

Region III Prediction

Covington Holy Cross (9-3) fans wanted this re-match, and even a week after Newport Catholic (7-5) blanked them 21-0 the Indian fans were already predicting that a Round 2 would have a different twist and ultimately a more favorable outcome. The confidence became even more palpable after some late season Offensive outbursts and some formation tweaks, but Friday's narrow escape must certainly bring some humility to their forecast.

The fact of the matter is this, NewCath wins Regional Championships. Always have, always will. From time to time a team can jump up and upset the apple cart, but by and large if NewCath is playing in Round 3 it is a pretty safe pick to ride the 'Breds. The "Why" behind this trend is pretty simple. Year in and year out NewCath wins the battle at the Line of Scrimmage and typically has enough balance and playmakers to score the points to keep the pressure on the challenger. Throw in consistently solid Special Teams play and generally great size, and it is a recipe for a perennial Title Contender.

Newport Central Catholic once again fits this mold, but for once Holy Cross brings something to the table that puts a "plus" in their match-up category. Holy Cross has perhaps the two best individual talents on the field in Xavier Abernathy and Derrick Barnes, a duo that will certainly keep the Indians in the game and should be able to help change the scoreboard. At the end of the day though, the other check boxes tally on the side of the Blue and Gold and that Line of Scrimmage battle swings the tide. Can Holy Cross win Round 2? Absolutely! Will they? Probably Not.

Region III Predicted Winner: Newport Central Catholic

Region IV in Review

There was little doubt that Region IV would be a Region with little regard for seeding. District 7 entered with a clear upper hand from top to bottom and the results held form with three District 7 teams advancing to the Second Round. Somerset was the strongest 3-seed in Class 2A and to some were a trendy upset pick taking on Lexington Christian Academy for the second time. The Eagles though have not went undefeated to see their season end at home in Round 2 and used the battering ram formerly known as Dillon Wheatley to distance themselves late and break the will of the Briarjumpers.

Danville fans felt extra confident that a road win at Leslie County was imminent. Despite the warnings of the difficulty to go into Hyden and play, many running clock prediction and lopsided scores were the order of the lead up. For a Half the Admiral fans had to be wondering if maybe they should have listened a bit more closely as a hard hitting battle had their blood pressure peaking a bit. Coach Clay Clevenger calmed his troops and made adjustments and the Ads were able to turn a 14-10 lead into a convincing 34-10 victory behind the steady arm of Zach Dampier and a considerable speed advantage.

Region IV Prediction

Three re-matches of District mates highlight the Third Round, but this re-match has just something a little different about it. In the other two games expect Defense to serve notice, but if the first meeting between Danville (10-2) and LCA (12-0) is any indication, this one is going to be all about the Big O. The Eagles were the narrow winners 42-40 in the original meeting in a game that neither Defense seemed to handle the opposing Offense's top playmakers.

If you are a fan of changing scoreboards and momentum shifts, this is the Class 2A game you will want to watch. Neither team will be confused for the Steel Curtain, but you are going to be hard pressed to find two small school Offenses playing each other in this week's games that are as balanced and chock full of game breakers as these two teams posses.

Make no mistake about it, the early season loss stung the Admirals to their core and even came as a bit of a surprise. The most over used analogy in sports is "they wanted it more"; this clash will throw that analogy out the window as this will not be a game about "want" and more about "earn". Whoever wins, rest assured the narrative will read "they earned it more" as neither team will be backing down. So who prevails? Just like the election on Tuesday this one is going to be "too close to call until all precincts are reporting", but in the end The Notebook is going to ride with the team that has just a bit more vinegar and revenge serving as motivation.

Region IV Predicted Winner: Danville

Awesome article.

This is the good stuff

Well done sir

Always enjoy reading your work on these articles.

Well done. Nice synopsis on the Colts. I'm curious whether the second half faux pas Friday is a sign of weakness or if it was a lack of focus that can serve as a wake-up call. I'm hoping it's the latter.

Great read

Great job. Agree 100%.

Great article, but I think Holy Cross ground & pound NCC into submission this time around.

There is no "perhaps." HC has probably 3 of the top 4 athletes on the field. They also have the same coaching staff as every other season.