Early favorites and surprises for The Preakness

Page 3 of Originally Posted by 75center Toss up between the top three makes Dortmund look awfully attractive at those odds. Dortmund looks good and could be the ... 67 comments | 1801 Views | Go to page 1 →

  1. #31

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    Firing Line ran second all the way around the track at the Derby. The Preakness is a sixteenth of a mile shorter. So, I don't think I'll be throwing my money away. If Firing line doesn't fire out of the gate, then he will have to deal with traffic and being wide on the turns. His best chance of winning is to be on top and hoping nobody presses the pace.
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  2. #32

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    Quote Originally Posted by JAIL BIRD View Post
    Firing Line ran second all the way around the track at the Derby. The Preakness is a sixteenth of a mile shorter. So, I don't think I'll be throwing my money away. If Firing line doesn't fire out of the gate, then he will have to deal with traffic and being wide on the turns. His best chance of winning is to be on top and hoping nobody presses the pace.
    Trust me that if he gets to the lead in this race then he will not hit the board IMO. Too much speed inside of him. If he lays right off the pace and starts making a move on the far turn then he is a winner in my book. He is my pick, but if he goes to the lead I will be looking to throw my tickets away. The tricky horse in the race is the Pimlico based horse. Shows a lot of speed which potentially causes an issue for others wanting to get to the front.

  3. #33

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    Quote Originally Posted by Jack of all Trades View Post
    No way does Firing Line go gate to wire. If you think that, then you are throwing your money away IMO. He should be laying 3rd or 4th in this field along with American Pharaoh, not to far off the pace of Mr. Z, Dortmund and the horse from Pimlico. Look for both to be on lead or in contention turning for home. Danzig Moon comes running very late under Leparoux to get third. Firing Line wins the race by 1/2 length.
    I think that the people that are throwing their money away is the people betting on American Pharaoh to win. He's the odds on favorite, and probably be 2 to 5 or 3 to 5 at post time.

    As long as Firing Line wins I don't care how he does it. We both agree that he will win.

    First race post time @ Pimlico is 10:45 AM. Good luck!

  4. #34

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    Quote Originally Posted by Jack of all Trades View Post
    No way does Firing Line go gate to wire. If you think that, then you are throwing your money away IMO. He should be laying 3rd or 4th in this field along with American Pharaoh, not to far off the pace of Mr. Z, Dortmund and the horse from Pimlico. Look for both to be on lead or in contention turning for home. Danzig Moon comes running very late under Leparoux to get third. Firing Line wins the race by 1/2 length.
    Is the bolded you are talking about is number 6 Bodhisatta? Last race he won was a $100,000 Stakes race at a mile and a sixteenth. He had another win, just like the other $100,000 stakes race. When he broke maiden it was a $40,000 Maiden Special Weight.
    He has $165,000 lifetime earnings. You really think Firing Line will have to chase this horse? If so, I'll have a double of what your having. This horse has been in a graded race one time. It was a grade 2 race and finished 5th by 11 lengths.

  5. #35
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    Quote Originally Posted by JAIL BIRD View Post
    Is the bolded you are talking about is number 6 Bodhisatta? Last race he won was a $100,000 Stakes race at a mile and a sixteenth. He had another win, just like the other $100,000 stakes race. When he broke maiden it was a $40,000 Maiden Special Weight.
    He has $165,000 lifetime earnings. You really think Firing Line will have to chase this horse? If so, I'll have a double of what your having. This horse has been in a graded race one time. It was a grade 2 race and finished 5th by 11 lengths.
    Great story I once read by a writer for the Daily Racing Form where he was talking about being at his first Preakness as a member of the media. He was sitting there and talking to some old guy that had been covering racing forever as this horse that started with really long odds suddenly was being bet on significantly.

    This old guy turned to him and said "Can you believe this? People with college educations are betting on the Tesio winner. Never bet on the Tesio winner."

    The horse qualifying for the Preakness by virtue of winning the Tesio this year? Bodhisattva.

  6. #36

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    Quote Originally Posted by Getslow View Post
    Great story I once read by a writer for the Daily Racing Form where he was talking about being at his first Preakness as a member of the media. He was sitting there and talking to some old guy that had been covering racing forever as this horse that started with really long odds suddenly was being bet on significantly.

    This old guy turned to him and said "Can you believe this? People with college educations are betting on the Tesio winner. Never bet on the Tesio winner."

    The horse qualifying for the Preakness by virtue of winning the Tesio this year? Bodhisattva.
    Seriously, I can tell you know a lot about horse racing. Without being too nosey, how much cash are you putting on this horse to win. Me? I'll put him in some tri boxes, but not all of them.

    Nothing to do with this preakness, it wasn't that long ago I had a couple of good hits. The first one was a tri ($1). The winning horse paid $93 to win.

    The second tri (on another day) winning horse 44-1, second horse 42-1, third horse 7-1. This proves anything can happen, and I don't consider myself as a blind squirrel.

    Getslow, I hope you have many winners.

  7. #37
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    Quote Originally Posted by JAIL BIRD View Post
    Seriously, I can tell you know a lot about horse racing. Without being too nosey, how much cash are you putting on this horse to win. Me? I'll put him in some tri boxes, but not all of them.

    Nothing to do with this preakness, it wasn't that long ago I had a couple of good hits. The first one was a tri ($1). The winning horse paid $93 to win.

    The second tri (on another day) winning horse 44-1, second horse 42-1, third horse 7-1. This proves anything can happen, and I don't consider myself as a blind squirrel.

    Getslow, I hope you have many winners.
    Very little money. I'm not a huge bettor in the first place and I'm not crazy about the short fields in the Preakness and I loathe the odds for AP. Was really hoping one or two of the Pletcher horses would run and make this thing a little more interesting from a bettors' perspective.

    One of Dortmund or AP isn't going to like his spot but the field is small enough that a late outside trip for a horse as talented as those two isn't a killer.

    The 5-7 horses will be taken out by the last stretch and won't factor. The key is where the 1-2 horses are come the final stretch. One of them may have to take a late outside trip and it's hard to say whether that will take more than will work.

    Personally, I think Firing Line was a hair away from getting in front of the field and could easily have won the Derby. I like Firing Line to win with AP finishing somewhere in the money.

  8. #38

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    Quote Originally Posted by Getslow View Post
    Very little money. I'm not a huge bettor in the first place and I'm not crazy about the short fields in the Preakness and I loathe the odds for AP. Was really hoping one or two of the Pletcher horses would run and make this thing a little more interesting from a bettors' perspective.

    One of Dortmund or AP isn't going to like his spot but the field is small enough that a late outside trip for a horse as talented as those two isn't a killer.

    The 5-7 horses will be taken out by the last stretch and won't factor. The key is where the 1-2 horses are come the final stretch. One of them may have to take a late outside trip and it's hard to say whether that will take more than will work.

    Personally, I think Firing Line was a hair away from getting in front of the field and could easily have won the Derby. I like Firing Line to win with AP finishing somewhere in the money.
    Sounds good to me. Some other things to think about.
    The number 6 horse is carrying 126 lbs, just like all of the others. That's 10 lbs more than he is used to carrying. In a long race the weight will make a difference.

    Weather reports say 51% chance of heavy rain for the Preakness.

  9. #39

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    Stevens will judge the pace......if they go slow he will let Firing Line go to the lead. If AP and Dort are battling it out he will wait and stalk. If he misjudges the pace those two may not stop. If Diving Rod rates he could pick off a few if a speed battle breaks out. Mud may make it interesting if maybe some of the lesser horses really take to it.

  10. #40

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    Trainer D. Wayne Lucas on Mr. Z. "We've been working with him. All his bad habits have been corrected. You won't see him lugging in or drifting out anymore."

    Does he really think people are morons and believe that crap? So, in two weeks time he's corrected a life time of bad habits? If it was that easy he should have done years ago. Got to go, spilled my drink earlier.

  11. #41
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    My picks
    W-Dortmund 6-1
    PL-Firing Line 5-1
    SH-American Pharoah 5-6

  12. #42

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    As of 7 pm the On Track wagering at Pimlico has produced these odds:

    PP HORSE ODDS
    1 American Pharoah 3-5
    2 Dortmund 8-1
    3 Mr. Z 14-1
    4 Danzig Moon 13-1
    5 Tale of Verve 25-1
    6 Bodhisattva 19-1
    7 Divining Rod 17-1
    8 Firing Line 5-2

  13. #43
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    I just can't figure out how I want to bet this one. I might just pick a horse and go in on it and enjoy the race.

  14. #44

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    Quote Originally Posted by frankdracman23 View Post
    As of 7 pm the On Track wagering at Pimlico has produced these odds:

    PP HORSE ODDS
    1 American Pharoah 3-5
    2 Dortmund 8-1
    3 Mr. Z 14-1
    4 Danzig Moon 13-1
    5 Tale of Verve 25-1
    6 Bodhisattva 19-1
    7 Divining Rod 17-1
    8 Firing Line 5-2
    Thanks for posting.
    AP @ 3-5 is what I posted earlier. Might get as much as even money, but I doubt it.

  15. #45

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    Toss up between the top three makes Dortmund look awfully attractive at those odds.

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