Vegas is Bogus

Page 4 of It gets on my nerves that people talk like "Vegas" is filled with geniuses and is all knowing. Any time a game ends up one point either side ... 81 comments | 3069 Views | Go to page 1 →

  1. #46

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    As others have mentioned, Vegas isn't worried about being right. They just need enough action from both sides of the line to make sure they win enough "juice". They aren't geniuses at picking games correctly They are geniuses at making money of people betting sports.
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  2. #47
    Voice of Reason's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by rjs4470 View Post
    As others have mentioned, Vegas isn't worried about being right. They just need enough action from both sides of the line to make sure they win enough "juice". They aren't geniuses at picking games correctly They are geniuses at making money of people betting sports.
    I agree with the above except I'm not even sure if they are geniuses at making money off people betting on sports. There are a LOT of neighborhood bookies who have done the same thing over the years. Should we call them geniuses too?

  3. #48
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    Quote Originally Posted by Voice of Reason View Post
    I agree with the above except I'm not even sure if they are geniuses at making money off people betting on sports. There are a LOT of neighborhood bookies who have done the same thing over the years. Should we call them geniuses too?
    Don't the neighborhood bookies use the Vegas lines?

  4. #49
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    Quote Originally Posted by Voice of Reason View Post
    I agree with the above except I'm not even sure if they are geniuses at making money off people betting on sports. There are a LOT of neighborhood bookies who have done the same thing over the years. Should we call them geniuses too?
    They make hand over fist every single day. Yes, they are geniuses at making money. That's not even a debatable point, it's fact.

    I'm curious what your real beef with them is. Seems much deeper than "gets on my nerves".

  5. #50

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    Quote Originally Posted by sweet16 View Post
    Don't the neighborhood bookies use the Vegas lines?
    I'd say every single one of them

  6. #51

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    Quote Originally Posted by strongopenyon View Post
    I have NEVER seen a college line move anywhere near 7-10 points.
    Then you have been around much or haven't paid much attention. It doesn't happen on the Power Conferences but happens every week on the small conference games.

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    Quote Originally Posted by strongopenyon View Post
    I have NEVER seen a college line move anywhere near 7-10 points.
    College Football Matchups at VegasInsider.com, the leader in Sportsbook and Gaming information - College Football Matchups, College Football Matchups, NCAA Football Matchups,NCAA Football Matchups, Football Matchups, Football Matchups and Analysis

    Just picked a random week from last season. At the bottom you'll see Fresno State went from 11.5 to 22. Scattered throughout are 4, 5 and 6 point line movements.

  8. #53

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    Quote Originally Posted by Voice of Reason View Post
    I agree with the above except I'm not even sure if they are geniuses at making money off people betting on sports. There are a LOT of neighborhood bookies who have done the same thing over the years. Should we call them geniuses too?
    The neighborhood guys aren’t setting their own lines. They are using Vegas lines.

  9. #54

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    I did hear there was one year when Vegas took a hit on the Super bowl. They moved the line from like 5 to 7 to even out the bets and the score ended up being 6.

  10. #55

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    Quote Originally Posted by TAC View Post
    I did hear there was one year when Vegas took a hit on the Super bowl. They moved the line from like 5 to 7 to even out the bets and the score ended up being 6.
    They got crushed last year. The public loves favorites and big names, so they were heavy on New England.

  11. #56
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    Quote Originally Posted by ManOfTroy View Post
    They got crushed last year. The public loves favorites and big names, so they were heavy on New England.
    Vegas loves the Patriots, especially come playoff time.

  12. #57

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    Quote Originally Posted by ManOfTroy View Post
    Then you have been around much or haven't paid much attention. It doesn't happen on the Power Conferences but happens every week on the small conference games.
    UNLV Rebels @ Fresno State Bulldogs

    10:00 PM Game Time Record Line Betting Trend
    Teams Win-Loss Streak Open Closing Spread Money O/U ATS
    211

    UNLV (2-5) (1-2 A) L-3 -11.5 58.5 25% 85% 53% Cover: 32
    212 Fresno State (5-2) (3-0 H) W-4 54.5 -22 75% 15% 47% Under: 42

    If you look at this in your attachment, it shows UNLV opened as an 11.5 point favorite and the game went off as Fresno State being a 22 point favorite. It is obviously a mistake.

    I remember this game because UNLV's quarterback was out and they played a former linebacker at quarterback. Even more amazing.....UNLV won straight up.

    I checked a database that showed Fresno actually opened as a 15 point favorite.

    Line moves like this one are VERY unusual. Obviously, UNLV had their quarterback out. Trust me, the pointspreads don't move 7-10 points in college football. Maybe 1% of the games.

    Oh, and by the way, I have been around and I do pay attention and have been for nearly 40 years. And you?

  13. #58

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    Quote Originally Posted by strongopenyon View Post
    UNLV Rebels @ Fresno State Bulldogs

    10:00 PM Game Time Record Line Betting Trend
    Teams Win-Loss Streak Open Closing Spread Money O/U ATS
    211

    UNLV (2-5) (1-2 A) L-3 -11.5 58.5 25% 85% 53% Cover: 32
    212 Fresno State (5-2) (3-0 H) W-4 54.5 -22 75% 15% 47% Under: 42

    If you look at this in your attachment, it shows UNLV opened as an 11.5 point favorite and the game went off as Fresno State being a 22 point favorite. It is obviously a mistake.

    I remember this game because UNLV's quarterback was out and they played a former linebacker at quarterback. Even more amazing.....UNLV won straight up.

    I checked a database that showed Fresno actually opened as a 15 point favorite.

    Line moves like this one are VERY unusual. Obviously, UNLV had their quarterback out. Trust me, the pointspreads don't move 7-10 points in college football. Maybe 1% of the games.

    Oh, and by the way, I have been around and I do pay attention and have been for nearly 40 years. And you?
    College Football Matchups at VegasInsider.com, the leader in Sportsbook and Gaming information - College Football Matchups, College Football Matchups, NCAA Football Matchups,NCAA Football Matchups, Football Matchups, Football Matchups and Analysis

    The next week...
    Washington opened -26, went off at -17.5
    I just randomly picked two weeks from this season and found a game in both weeks. Do we need to continue this?

  14. #59

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    Quote Originally Posted by tark the shark View Post
    Google, Billy Walters Gambler, 60 Minutes Interview. He is considered in many circles as the greatest gambler ever, he is originally from Kentucky. He just sold Glenn Auto Group dealerships out of Lexington. It's pretty fascinating on how he has the ability to move the line.
    I knew a guy from Arkansas named Denny Mason(deceased) that would play Billy Walters $50,000 a hole in golf.
    Back in the day, Walters hung out some at the Elks in Jeffersonville, played a little golf and booked a little. Couple of years brought in a couple of ringers at the JEFF Open. Very interesting character, very smart when it came to gambling and finance.

  15. #60
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    Quote Originally Posted by ManOfTroy View Post
    College Football Matchups at VegasInsider.com, the leader in Sportsbook and Gaming information - College Football Matchups, College Football Matchups, NCAA Football Matchups,NCAA Football Matchups, Football Matchups, Football Matchups and Analysis

    The next week...
    Washington opened -26, went off at -17.5
    I just randomly picked two weeks from this season and found a game in both weeks. Do we need to continue this?
    In his defense, he did say maybe 1% of the time and the two examples you have shown proves it’s less than 1% of time. At least on the number of games that have spreads.

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