Vegas is Bogus

Page 3 of It gets on my nerves that people talk like "Vegas" is filled with geniuses and is all knowing. Any time a game ends up one point either side ... 81 comments | 3067 Views | Go to page 1 →

  1. #31

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    Did some looking around and found this:

    NFL betting by the numbers: 'Vegas' not nearly as accurate as many would like to believe - BettingTalk

    "For example, the NFL is by far the easiest league to create point spreads for. Double-digit lines are few and far between and very rarely will they be greater than 14 points. Yet, since 2002, nearly 60 percent of NFL games have been decided by more than seven points of the spread, according to Spreadapedia. More than 28 percent of NFL games have been decided by more than 14 points over the past 10 seasons. And only 5.5 percent of games have landed exactly on the closing point spread."
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  2. #32
    Voice of Reason's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by 75center View Post
    Did some looking around and found this:

    NFL betting by the numbers: 'Vegas' not nearly as accurate as many would like to believe - BettingTalk

    "For example, the NFL is by far the easiest league to create point spreads for. Double-digit lines are few and far between and very rarely will they be greater than 14 points. Yet, since 2002, nearly 60 percent of NFL games have been decided by more than seven points of the spread, according to Spreadapedia. More than 28 percent of NFL games have been decided by more than 14 points over the past 10 seasons. And only 5.5 percent of games have landed exactly on the closing point spread."
    Uh oh ... is VoR's gut instinct right on this?

    Thanks for posting 75center!

  3. #33
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    Google, Billy Walters Gambler, 60 Minutes Interview. He is considered in many circles as the greatest gambler ever, he is originally from Kentucky. He just sold Glenn Auto Group dealerships out of Lexington. It's pretty fascinating on how he has the ability to move the line.
    I knew a guy from Arkansas named Denny Mason(deceased) that would play Billy Walters $50,000 a hole in golf.

  4. #34

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    Quote Originally Posted by 75center View Post
    Did some looking around and found this:

    NFL betting by the numbers: 'Vegas' not nearly as accurate as many would like to believe - BettingTalk

    "For example, the NFL is by far the easiest league to create point spreads for. Double-digit lines are few and far between and very rarely will they be greater than 14 points. Yet, since 2002, nearly 60 percent of NFL games have been decided by more than seven points of the spread, according to Spreadapedia. More than 28 percent of NFL games have been decided by more than 14 points over the past 10 seasons. And only 5.5 percent of games have landed exactly on the closing point spread."
    That really doesn't tell me much. If the line is 3 and a team wins by 13, the line was 10 points off BUT if 70% of the money was on the other side, Vegas won big. This is meaningless.

    The idea of the public shaping the line is kind of blown up too. Only 6 games per SEASON move over 3 points, so how much shaping are they doing? Typically, very little.

    The impressive part is buried at the end. Since 2002, 1463 dogs covered, 1415 favorites covered, 2886 overs and 2878 unders.

  5. #35
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    I was reading an article about the guy who set the line for Superbowl III. It was set at Colts -18. They asked him how he could have missed the line by so much. He answered what are you taking about. That was one of the best lines I have ever done. It came out almost perfect 50/50 on each side. Im not trying to predict scores, Im trying make our casino money.

  6. #36

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    Quote Originally Posted by ManOfTroy View Post
    That really doesn't tell me much. If the line is 3 and a team wins by 13, the line was 10 points off BUT if 70% of the money was on the other side, Vegas won big. This is meaningless.

    The idea of the public shaping the line is kind of blown up too. Only 6 games per SEASON move over 3 points, so how much shaping are they doing? Typically, very little.

    The impressive part is buried at the end. Since 2002, 1463 dogs covered, 1415 favorites covered, 2886 overs and 2878 unders.
    Meaningless? Topic was not how or when Vegas makes money, the topic was how close do they come with their spreads. We all know Vegas is making money, those casinos aren't cheap to build.

  7. #37

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    Quote Originally Posted by 75center View Post
    Meaningless? Topic was not how or when Vegas makes money, the topic was how close do they come with their spreads. We all know Vegas is making money, those casinos aren't cheap to build.
    I guess the overall point is that they are setting the line against the general public who is not very good at picking winners. I'd be more interested in knowing this: how many of the 60% of games that didn't fall within 7 points of the line did Vegas win money?

  8. #38

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    Quote Originally Posted by ManOfTroy View Post
    I guess the overall point is that they are setting the line against the general public who is not very good at picking winners. I'd be more interested in knowing this: how many of the 60% of games that didn't fall within 7 points of the line did Vegas win money?
    They are not setting the line against the general public.

  9. #39

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    Quote Originally Posted by 75center View Post
    They are not setting the line against the general public.
    Who else would it be against?

  10. #40

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    Quote Originally Posted by ManOfTroy View Post
    Who else would it be against?
    They set the line FOR the betting public. Vegas is not playing against the betting public. The betting public is playing against each other with Vegas charging a fee to the losers to process the transaction. It's been pointed out repeatedly that their goal is a 50/50 split. They live on juice. When they're setting the line they can really care less who wins or loses or who covers or doesn't cover. Now obviously there are games when they miss their goal and have a potential large loss or gain.

  11. #41

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    Quote Originally Posted by littleluck55 View Post
    I was reading an article about the guy who set the line for Superbowl III. It was set at Colts -18. They asked him how he could have missed the line by so much. He answered “what are you taking about. That was one of the best lines I have ever done. It came out almost perfect 50/50 on each side. I’m not trying to predict scores, I’m trying make our casino money.”
    This!

  12. #42

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    I'm in a weekly pick em using the spread. 53 folks participated. the winner hit on 58% of the games. The worse guy only got 44.4% correct. players 27-30 won exactly 50% for the year. What's the amount Vegas makes on sports bets? 10%??? Looks like even our winner would not win in Vegas?

  13. #43

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    Quote Originally Posted by TAC View Post
    I'm in a weekly pick em using the spread. 53 folks participated. the winner hit on 58% of the games. The worse guy only got 44.4% correct. players 27-30 won exactly 50% for the year. What's the amount Vegas makes on sports bets? 10%??? Looks like even our winner would not win in Vegas?
    Winner would have made money if he bet the same amount each time. Losing bets pay the 10% so he would have paid 10% extra on his 42% losing bets.

  14. #44

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    Quote Originally Posted by 75center View Post
    They set the line FOR the betting public. Vegas is not playing against the betting public. The betting public is playing against each other with Vegas charging a fee to the losers to process the transaction. It's been pointed out repeatedly that their goal is a 50/50 split. They live on juice. When they're setting the line they can really care less who wins or loses or who covers or doesn't cover. Now obviously there are games when they miss their goal and have a potential large loss or gain.
    We're saying the same thing.

  15. #45

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    Quote Originally Posted by ManOfTroy View Post
    NFL doesn't move much (3 or 4 points is a big move) but college lines can move up to 7-10 points
    I have NEVER seen a college line move anywhere near 7-10 points.

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