Close losses

This is a carryover from the Reds topic. What exactly is a close loss comparable to a 1 run loss in baseball? I would say anything within a FG or the easiest score. A 4-5 point loss being more like a 2 run game and a 6-7 point loss being a 3-4 run game. Obviously a TD scoring drive is still within 7 but TD drives aren't that easy and really good teams playing each other usuall results in a 3 point line or less.

One possession is a close loss, IMO. But, you have to watch the game. Not all one possession finals were truly one possession games. If a team scores with 8 seconds left to cut a lead from 14 to 7, that is different than a team having the ball with 3-4 minutes trailing by seven and failing to score.

But, if a team loses by 8 or less, with a chance to get the ball back, or if they had the ball and failed, I'd consider that a close game myself. Anything can happen and a big play is possible at any time.

Originally Posted by SSC

This is a carryover from the Reds topic. What exactly is a close loss comparable to a 1 run loss in baseball? I would say anything within a FG or the easiest score. A 4-5 point loss being more like a 2 run game and a 6-7 point loss being a 3-4 run game. Obviously a TD scoring drive is still within 7 but TD drives aren't that easy and really good teams playing each other usuall results in a 3 point line or less.

I think 5wide said it perfectly, it really depends on the situation. Some 6,7,8 point losses are really close games, and some losses like that are really not as close as they appear. However to act like most of the Bengals losses against the better teams were not close was wrong, especially when you try to say it is different in the Reds case. The Bengals have Mike Brown as the owner, and just don't want to believe that they were much better than you thought last year, and were close against the top teams too. Yes they lost and that is all that matters, just like with the Reds though.

As I pointed out in the Reds thread the Bengals were 10 yards away from tying the Ravens, or actually possibly beating the Ravens on a controversial overturned touchdown by Gresham. Bengals had a 4 and 1 in Broncos territory at the end of the game and failed. (They should have kicked the field goal, but a bad decision there just like Dusty had made some bad decisions.) First Houston game they lost basically on last play of the game. 49ers game the Bengal were winning most of the game and blew the lead at the end, but then was driving at the end until an interception cost them at the 20 yard line. Same thing with the Steelers game had a chance to win at the end and was driving and then interception ended it. If I remember correctly the only games that really were not that close was the 2nd Steelers, and Raven games and then the Houston playoff game. So out of their 7 regular season losses against those playoffs teams they had very good chances at the end in 5 of them, just like the Reds would have in one run games. One possession games when the teams drives down the field and has a legit chance to win is a close game, I don't know how you could even argue other wise in those games.

Whats funny is that it was a simple joke I was trying to make in the Reds thread, I honestly didn't want to start this whole debate again. We have the Reds doing great, and a new Bengal season in front of us. I am sure we will have many discussions during the new Bengals season haha.

Originally Posted by 5wide

One possession is a close loss, IMO. But, you have to watch the game. Not all one possession finals were truly one possession games. If a team scores with 8 seconds left to cut a lead from 14 to 7, that is different than a team having the ball with 3-4 minutes trailing by seven and failing to score.

But, if a team loses by 8 or less, with a chance to get the ball back, or if they had the ball and failed, I'd consider that a close game myself. Anything can happen and a big play is possible at any time.

Yeah it's pretty hard to judge just like in baseball a 4 run loss where you go down 1-2-3 in the 9th is a lot different than a 4 run loss where you leave the bases loaded. It's really difficult

FC I'm not reading another novel of yours. Here are the facts. The Gals lost 8 games last year 5 were by a TD or more. They got beat by every single good team and good QB they played. They even lost twice to Houston with their backup QB who was a rookie 5th round pick. The Reds have played far better against the good teams on their schedule. It's not a comparison.

Originally Posted by SSC

Yeah it's pretty hard to judge just like in baseball a 4 run loss where you go down 1-2-3 in the 9th is a lot different than a 4 run loss where you leave the bases loaded. It's really difficult

It is not difficult at all, you know your wrong here and those games were close games that went down to the final possession and with a team driving. To say they weren't close games just like a one run game is just silly.

Originally Posted by SSC

FC I'm not reading another novel of yours. Here are the facts. The Gals lost 8 games last year 5 were by a TD or more. They got beat by every single good team and good QB they played. They even lost twice to Houston with their backup QB who was a rookie 5th round pick. The Reds have played far better against the good teams on their schedule. It's not a comparison.

Funny thing is you say that because you just dont want to see the facts that point out where you are wrong. The facts are 5 of those 8 games you talk about came down to the very final possession, with the Bengals driving on the other teams side of the field at the very end of the game to win the game, or lost on the last possession like to Houston. Now those are facts, and if you chose to ignore how the game played out, then your just being silly again in ignoring that. You ask those teams the pressure they felt at the end of those games when they saw the Bengals driving for the winning scores, and I bet they would definitely believe it is the same pressure baseball players feel in a one run game.

Originally Posted by futurecoach

It is not difficult at all, you know your wrong here and those games were close games that went down to the final possession and with a team driving. To say they weren't close games just like a one run game is just silly.

Spreads in the NFL of 7 represent a mismatch. If you're down 7 you might have been close to tying which is far different from close to winning. Once you tie it's still 50/50 on who's going to win in most cases.

Originally Posted by futurecoach

Funny thing is you say that because you just dont want to see the facts that point out where you are wrong. The facts are 5 of those 8 games you talk about came down to the very final possession, with the Bengals driving on the other teams side of the field at the very end of the game to win the game, or lost on the last possession like to Houston. Now those are facts, and if you chose to ignore how the game played out, then your just being silly again in ignoring that. You ask those teams the pressure they felt at the end of those games when they saw the Bengals driving for the winning scores, and I bet they would definitely believe it is the same pressure baseball players feel in a one run game.

I love when people like you say people are wrong or silly. Facts are 5 of 8 losses were by 7 or more. 2 others were on their home field. One of those two was a 1 pm EST game for a team from California which are notoriously tough games for West coast teams. The other game a 5th round rookie came on their home turf and beat them in what might have been his first start. A few weeks later that same guy buried them by 3 TD's. Those facts arent arguable. The Bengals beat nobody any good and the Reds have fared well against the good teams. Like I said no comparison

Originally Posted by SSC

I love when people like you say people are wrong or silly. Facts are 5 of 8 losses were by 7 or more. 2 others were on their home field. One of those two was a 1 pm EST game for a team from California which are notoriously tough games for West coast teams. The other game a 5th round rookie came on their home turf and beat them in what might have been his first start. A few weeks later that same guy buried them by 3 TD's. Those facts arent arguable. The Bengals beat nobody any good and the Reds have fared well against the good teams. Like I said no comparison

The Reds had not fared that well against the good teams, well at least before this series. And how many opportunities do the Reds get to win games against good teams? To win games against other teams who don't have their aces throwing? You really want to get into all little things, then we need to compare how the Reds do against the best teams aces. Since as you point out playing top QB's matter a lot, well so does playing a good teams ace. Then we can compare then too, I mean we can go on and on. I really question your whole argument here since you can't even admit that 5 of those 8 games were close games and ANY person with sense knows they were very close games. Games that come down to the final possession, and the team driving with a chance to win a game is a close game. Just common sense man, however you like to overlook these things but keep trying.

I am not getting into all this with you again. We will have to agree to disagree even though your wrong about them not being close games. It was a simple joke that started this, and now were back at this again. We have a new season in front of us, so lets discuss that instead of doing all this again.

The Reds are above .500 against winning teams. The Gals were 0-8 against them. Like I said no comparison. 2 things you didn't address b/c well it makes you look wrong. 7 and 8 point losses aren't close to a win. They can be close to a tie. 7 point spreads put out by odds makers represent a mis-match.

Originally Posted by SSC

The Reds are above .500 against winning teams. The Gals were 0-8 against them. Like I said no comparison. 2 things you didn't address b/c well it makes you look wrong. 7 and 8 point losses aren't close to a win. They can be close to a tie. 7 point spreads put out by odds makers represent a mis-match.

You know your right about the Reds with them being above .500 against winning teams, I was going off of what the person posted in that Reds thread who had most of the series the Reds being .500 or less. So you are right on that. However what started all this was me saying a joke how people can't count close losses as a good thing, since it didnt matter for the Bengals, which was a joke but you wanted to make something of it.

Now to continue your really serious about your whole spread thing counting as showing a game was not close? You seriously dont even take into how the game was played? WOW!!!!!!!!!!!! Yes a spread is made before a game and your right a 7 point spread or more is usually a bigger spread. However that has no baring on rather the game was close when the game was actually played. If you want to keep being silly and acting like games that have a team driving down the field on the other teams side of the 50 with a chance to win or tie is not close then I don't know man that is just common sense. Those games were very close games 5 of those 8 losses, and games where I guarntee you those teams were probably feeling the same pressure at the end of a game as baseball teams feel in the 9th in one run games. To ignore that is once again just silly.

So are we really going to keep doing this again? As I admit I was wrong when it comes to the Reds overall record against teams above .500. However if you really want to go into especially with how you like to use your silly argument about spreads to say a game was not close, then we need to start counting the Reds against top teams Aces and things like that too then, when teams in baseball are completely different teams depending on who pitches. Now that is a better comparison then. Its common sense those games were very close, based on how the game was played its very simple. Not surprised with you though a simple joke starts into another big thing with you.

FC any idea what percentage of drives the Bengals scored a TD on last year? I'd say it was around 25% but I'm guessing 25% is the high end. So they had around a 25% chance to tie a 7 point game. If they would have tied them, they didn't, they still would have had roughly a 50/50 shot to win. In the 8 point game same thing except they needed to convert a 2 point conversion which are good roughly 47% of the time just to get the game to a coin flip. While they may seem close. They aren't. 25% odds to tie a game aren't something you want very often. That's why 7 point spreads are considered mismatches. In theory it's a one score game but the better team also won those games. That's not even factoring in that Baltimore and Pittsburgh probably only allowed TD's 20% of the time or less. Really not that close to winning those games.

Originally Posted by SSC

FC any idea what percentage of drives the Bengals scored a TD on last year? I'd say it was around 25% but I'm guessing 25% is the high end. So they had around a 25% chance to tie a 7 point game. If they would have tied them, they didn't, they still would have had roughly a 50/50 shot to win. In the 8 point game same thing except they needed to convert a 2 point conversion which are good roughly 47% of the time just to get the game to a coin flip. While they may seem close. They aren't. 25% odds to tie a game aren't something you want very often. That's why 7 point spreads are considered mismatches. In theory it's a one score game but the better team also won those games. That's not even factoring in that Baltimore and Pittsburgh probably only allowed TD's 20% of the time or less. Really not that close to winning those games.

Once again a point spread HAS NOTHING TO DO when determining if a game was actually a close game. How the game was played determines if the game was truly a close game or not. If we use your little theory for baseball then a game could be tied in the 9th and one team hits a 3 run shot in the 9th and wins by three. Since that team won by three I guess that game really was not a close game since it was decided by three runs? No everyone would consider that a close game and great game at that.

Even people who rarely watch football could watch those game and would say that 5 of those 8 Bengal games were close games and very good/great games with great finishes. Yes Bengals lost by 7 to the Ravens, however an overturn touchdown in the 4th had a big impact, and then the Bengals still drove all the way down the field to the 7 yard line and had a chance on the last play of the game from there. Not to mention Dalton had already threw for 374 yards that game so showed he could move that ball that day but I guess that doesn't matter since it was a 7 point defeat that meant it was not that close of a game because of the spreads hahaha Wow! Then the Pittsburgh game the Steelers got two interceptions one in the red zone and one just outside of the red zone in the last 5 minutes of the game to hold on to the victory. Another game with another great finish that went right down to the end. How could that not be considered a very close game by your standards is beyond me. The Houston game the Texans won basically on the last play of the game. The 49ers game they scored to get the lead at the end of the game with the Bengals leading all game, and then the Bengals drove all the way down the field and got intercepted in the red zone at the 14 yard line to end the game. Another great game, with another finish that went right down to the very end. Guess since it was a 5 point margin though that also means it was not close. Then the Denver game also went down to the very end, and a failed 4th and one to end it.

Notice also how I keep saying how 5 out of the 8 games were close. You keep talking about the 8 point loss, however I have not defended that as a close game have I? I was at that game, and yeah even though the final margin ended up being on possession, the game it self really never seemed in doubt for Baltimore. So I don't consider that a really close game. It was close but not one that I would count in this argument. You can not judge a game based on the final outcome, you judge it by how the game was played. 5 of those 8 games were very close games that they lost, just like a tough one loss game would be. You can't base things just on the final margin, just like it would be stupid to say that baseball example I gave was not as close of a game as a one run game just because the final score ended up having a 3 run difference. I also went ahead and attached the recaps of some of those games, to show you that yes they were very close games that came down to the very end. I didn't attach the Texans or Broncos one because I don't see anyway you could try to argue that, just like shouldn't even try to argue this.

Cincinnati Bengals vs. Baltimore Ravens - Recap - November 20, 2011 - ESPN
Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Cincinnati Bengals - Recap - November 13, 2011 - ESPN
San Francisco 49ers vs. Cincinnati Bengals - Recap - September 25, 2011 - ESPN

To kind of change pace a little bit. I did notice something by going back and looking at things. Yes the Bengals played playoff teams close in 5 of their 8 losses, however there was one common thing that happened in those close losses and that was usually a Dalton interception or the Denver getting stopped on 4th and one. Dalton did a great job showing poise driving them down the field getting them in position to win in the end, but then threw the killer pick. I admit he does have to finish those drives against good teams if he wants to take the next step. However considering he was a rookie, and being able to put his team in that position at least was good so I am happy with that. This year that will need to improve though.

FC you are Mike Brown's dream lemming (fan)

Just to chime in again, the majority of NFL games are close. We can come up with a criteria for catagorizing "close losses", just for number's sake.

But, the reality is, the final score of a game doesn't tell you all about that game. Just because a game would fall outside of the close loss criteria doesn't necessarily mean it wasn't close. Say the Bengals and Steelers were playing and the game was tied with 5 minutes to play. Pitt scores a TD to go up 7, then Cincy gets it back with 3 minutes to play only to have the Steelers defense return an int for a TD. In reality, I'd call that a close game, but the final score might say otherwise. It's just the opposite of a team scoring right at the end to make the final score a one-possession game.

Originally Posted by 5wide

Just to chime in again, the majority of NFL games are close. We can come up with a criteria for catagorizing "close losses", just for number's sake.

But, the reality is, the final score of a game doesn't tell you all about that game. Just because a game would fall outside of the close loss criteria doesn't necessarily mean it wasn't close. Say the Bengals and Steelers were playing and the game was tied with 5 minutes to play. Pitt scores a TD to go up 7, then Cincy gets it back with 3 minutes to play only to have the Steelers defense return an int for a TD. In reality, I'd call that a close game, but the final score might say otherwise. It's just the opposite of a team scoring right at the end to make the final score a one-possession game.

That is my point, you can't just look at the final score to determine if a game is close. However you want to use point spreads instead of looking at the game itself in determining if the game was really close or not. That is why I was debating the Bengals 8 point loss to the Ravens in their second game against them, because that game the Ravens really were in control throughout and never really seemed like the Bengals had a shot to win, especially at the end like in the other games I have talked about. Just like in baseball teams could be tied in the 9th, but a team hits a 3 run shot to win the game. Since the margin ended up being 3 does that all of a sudden mean it was not a close game just because the margin was 3 and not a 1 run game? Point spreads are great to use before a game and determine who people may feel is better going into the game. However how the game is actually played determines what type of game it really was.

Originally Posted by Shutitdown

FC you are Mike Brown's dream lemming (fan)

For what exactly? Backing up why I believe these things? I gave people reasons last year why I thought they would do much better than people though, and those were many of the reasons why they ended up doing well. Yet people had their mind up about them without even truly looking at things. Now for this debate, I don't even know how it is a debate considering most people would consider those close games based on how the games were played in 5 of 8 of those losses. I give credit where credit is due, but some people have a hard time with that when it comes to the Bengals. Then if I am wrong I will admit it, just like I was wrong about the whole Carson Palmer thing.

Originally Posted by 5wide

Just to chime in again, the majority of NFL games are close. We can come up with a criteria for catagorizing "close losses", just for number's sake.

But, the reality is, the final score of a game doesn't tell you all about that game. Just because a game would fall outside of the close loss criteria doesn't necessarily mean it wasn't close. Say the Bengals and Steelers were playing and the game was tied with 5 minutes to play. Pitt scores a TD to go up 7, then Cincy gets it back with 3 minutes to play only to have the Steelers defense return an int for a TD. In reality, I'd call that a close game, but the final score might say otherwise. It's just the opposite of a team scoring right at the end to make the final score a one-possession game.

I heard a few years ago where the average score of NFL games over history was 17-13. That may have changed over the past few years with more points being scored, but that margin holds pretty constant.

Obviously every game is different and a team can score last second to make it appear close or a team on the other end can score last second to make it seem larger than what the game actually was. I would say over time those average out. 1 possession and under is close in my book.