nWo

The forecast for later this evening and overnight remains pretty much the same. Showers and thunderstorms are expected, however, the threat of any severe weather will remain low due to a stable layer near the surface. Some notable changes to the Wednesday forecast have lowered confidence in whether we will see strong to severe storms. 1.) The main focus for the best chance of severe weather has shifted northward to along and north of the Ohio River for Wednesday. 2.) A capping inversion may limit storms from firing at all on Wednesday, thus hurting confidence. It is very important to note that if the cap does not hold, then any storm that does develop could still turn strong to severe. So, we can't let our guard down just yet for Wednesday. The Storm Prediction Center has kept KY in a Marginal risk, with southern IN still in the Slight Risk. Stay up-to-date with the latest forecasts. Another round of strong to severe storms may occur on Thursday night ahead of a cold front. We'll have to watch this one as well.

Most model forecasts indicate that convective initiation will happen in the early afternoon along the cold front that trails southwest from the low pressure system. A combination of both supercells and multicell clusters seems to have the potential to produce all serious threats. The area north and north of the Lower to Central Ohio Valley is predicted to see the greatest convective concentration.

There is a chance of showers and thunderstorms on Wednesday morning before daybreak. There will not be much of a serious threat from those. There will be another round of storms in the late morning or early afternoon. It is more likely that these storms will be strong or severe. By late Wednesday night, storms are predicted to move east of the area. Severe storms have the potential to produce localized tornadoes, large hail, and damaging winds. It is also conceivable for locations that receive frequent rainfall to experience minor flooding.

A severe weather event may be in store for us, maybe beginning on Tuesday and continuing into Wednesday. Western Kentucky is currently categorized as a level 2 out of 5 Slight Risk Area, with a 15% probability of strong to severe storms on Tuesday, according to the Storm Prediction Center. As we approach closer, there is a risk that this gets bumped up to level 3 out of 5 Enhanced Risk Area. The exact location, severity, and timing of the extreme weather are still somewhat unknown. The course of events will change during the following few days. Return for updates. As always, be prepared for everything. Remember, forewarned is forearmed!

There is an isolated threat for a few strong to severe storms, mainly in the afternoon and early evening hours, across southern Indiana and central Kentucky. The best chances for any severe weather will generally be east of the I-65 corridor, but confidence in severe storms remains low.

Tonight and Thursday are predicted to see more waves of showers and thunderstorms, with Friday morning seeing a decrease in precipitation. Locally, on Thursday, a few strong storms are probable in central Kentucky and southern Indiana (primarily in the afternoon and evening). There will be a comparatively higher risk of severe storms from northeastern Kentucky into Ohio.

East of the surface cyclone track that is steadily deepening, a synoptically conducive corridor for a few supercells and organized clusters should form. In this area, there should be a time when the daytime heating cycle and an overspreading mid-level dry slot coincide, resulting in an occurrence of early afternoon convection in the left-exit region of the strong mid-level jet over the Southeast and southern Appalachians. A supercell wind profile should be evident, even though potential energy will remain weak. There is a chance of a few tornadoes, isolated to dispersed damaging winds, and isolated, powerful hail.

Latest maps

I have to admit, I'm impressed with the SPC Mesoscale Analysis 3Cape model data. The confirmed tornadoes were pretty close to the area that it showed. I will be using it in the future during severe weather events.

It looks like it will be best to travel to Illinois or Missouri.