The Winter Storm Warning for Western Kentucky has been canceled

    Interactive NWS Alert   New event: Winter Storm Warning for WKY Sent via email and SMS at 846 pm CST, Dec 8th 2018 Radar valid at 908 pm CST, Dec 8th 2018

According to radar in Western Kentucky freezing rain and snow are about to reach that part of the state.

The afternoon model runs have continued moving the possible track of this storm northward. So here is my second forecast on the possible snow accumulations through Sunday evening. That is when most of the wintry precipitation should be out of Kentucky. One thing of note. The freezing rain may bring these totals down but I'll discuss that in a bit. New Snowfall accumulation totals: Middlesboro 11-13" Pikeville 10-12" Hazard 8-10" London...

All the models I just checked are showing a track that is moving more towards the north. This could possibly mean more of Kentucky receiving some snow and freezing rain. I will post my second forecast on potential snowfall accumulations later today after the afternoon model runs are issued. I wouldn't be surprised at all if a Winter Storm Watch is issued for Southeast Kentucky later today.

306 AM EST Sat Dec 8 2018 KYZ079-080-110-113-115>117-120-081615- /O.NEW.KJKL.WW.Y.0021.181209T0500Z-181209T2100Z/ Pulaski-Laurel-Floyd-Knott-Perry-Clay-Leslie-Pike- Including the cities of Burnside, Somerset, London, Prestonsburg, Wheelwright, Hindman, Pippa Passes, Hazard, Manchester, Hyden, Coal Run, Elkhorn City, Pikeville, and South Williamson 306 AM EST Sat Dec 8 2018

National Weather Service Jackson KY 306 AM EST Sat Dec 8 2018 KYZ087-088-118-081615- /O.NEW.KJKL.WW.Y.0021.181209T0100Z-181210T0000Z/ Bell-Harlan-Letcher- Including the cities of Middlesboro, Pineville, Cumberland, Harlan, Jenkins, and Whitesburg 306 AM EST Sat Dec 8 2018

336 AM CST Sat Dec 8 2018 ...Wintry Mix of Precipitation along the Tennessee and Arkansas Borders... .A storm system will move east across Mississippi and Alabama tonight, spreading a wintry mix into extreme southern counties of western Kentucky and southeast Missouri.

Just to show everyone what I was talking about in my last post. The first map is from this morning 12z NAM run. It is centered around 7 am EST Monday morning. It shows the snow almost entirely missing Kentucky. The second one is from this afternoon 18z run. It shows the snowfield starting a slight shift northward. It is also center at the same time on Monday as the one above. So there is still some uncertainty on the track of this...

Everyone should still keep an eye on the weather this weekend. The afternoon NAM is starting to show the track starting to move more to the north. I will post more about it when I get home from work.

I just received the briefing slides from the Louisville office. They are still calling for 1-2" for the Somerset area. 2-4 inches for extreme seky. So i will know more after the conference call.

The latest GFS and NAM runs are showing that also. I finally found a site where I can get the European Model(ECMWF) It is supposed to be more accurate than either the GFS and NAM. Most sites with the European Model wants you to pay for it. this one is free. It is still showing southeast Kentucky getting some snow. Also, I just received a text from the National Weather Service about a conference call for Southern Kentucky this afternoon. So some...

As of this morning, there is still a lot of uncertainty on the track of this system. It is still in the process of forming so the models are having a tough time on predicting what this system will do and the track it will take. I will wait until the later model runs come out today before I start any predictions. The NAM is predicting a little more southerly track than yesterday. That could mean a big hit for parts of southeast Kentucky...

This storm is still coming together so the models are fluctuating back and forth on the possible freezing rain/snow accumulation totals. Parts of Kentucky will receive some type of wintry precipitation this weekend. The following maps are from the Weather Prediction Center's GEFS Probability of Precipitation. Now they don't say how much snow/freezing rain accumulations there will be just the probability of that type of wintry precipitation...

The storm system, for now, seems to be moving towards a more northerly track but as of now, NKY is not looking at much snow.

Well if the modeling trend continues that I've been keeping an eye on and the storm system keeps the northerly track it has been showing 4 inches may be on the low end.

I've just looked at the latest NAM run for midday. I'm starting to get a little concerned about this possible weekend's winter precipitation event. The NAM has been consistent the past couple of runs. While the GFS and Canadian have been going back and forth. I'm not ready to predict any accumulations as of yet but as I stated earlier but my concern is growing. I want to see a couple more model runs before I start posting my forecast totals....

We have the makings of a possible winter storm hitting Kentucky this upcoming weekend. It is still up in the air about how much snow and freezing rain some may receive. The models are having trouble getting a handle on this possible winter storm. So it may be another day before I can predict with any confidence the winter precipitation heading our way. Let me show everyone what I'm seeing this morning. First the NAM model. It doesn't go as...

As I stated yesterday there will be some fluctuation in the snowfall accumulation forecast. This morning GFS is quite different than last night's. Here is what it is showing this morning. Once again this far out from the event, we will see fluctuations in the amount of possible snowfall. I should be able to start getting a good read on this weekend's possible weather by tomorrow.

This Winter Weather Advisory has been extended to 12 pm EST.

Parts of Western Kentucky have been added to this Winter Weather Advisory. 402 PM CST Tue Dec 4 2018 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT...

The Winter Weather Advisory area has been expanded. 220 PM EST Tue Dec 4 2018 ...Light Snow Accumulations Tonight into Wednesday Morning...

Run To State will love this weekend's possible winter weather if what the models are showing truly happens.

I'm seeing the possibility of some freezing rain and snow accumulations for parts of Kentucky. I'll post some more details later today after I get off work.