HoosierEagle

For Johson Central, it has been Paintsville. However, I think next season they would trade a loss in the Apple Bowl for a win over Ashland. Ashland will be tough next season, and a win over them will show that the Golden Eagles have returned to the level they reached in Bill Musick's last season.

I don't think that there is a built-in bias in the AP polls, but there are many more flaws in the system than in BGP's rankings process. IMO, they are as follows: 1. Poor or erratic participation - As others have pointed out, if the eligible voters in a particular geographic area elect not to vote, the results are potentially skewed. 2. "Homerism" - All of us have seen a team that no "reasonable" person would vote No. 1 and few, if any would vote No. 10, get a No. 1 vote. I think occasionally, some joker wants to make some kind of point by not voting for the obvious No. 1 team. 3. Eligible vs. "qualified" - I assume that there is no guarantee that the AP voters even want to participate. It is possible that some voters are assigned the job, whether they like it or not. 4. Isolation - The biggest disadvantage that AP voters have compared to the BGP team that puts together the rankings is that AP voters rarely get to discuss their votes before casting them. What you get is the independent votes of 9 to 15 voters, with none of them accountable to the other voters. BGP does not use a strict voting system per se. Moderators may vote, but voting is used more like it is by a jury. Unless there is unanymnity, the voting starts the process. In the case of the AP, the vote is the process. There is no discussion either before or after votes are cast, and no chance for voters to change their votes if they see realize they made a blunder. (If I am wrong about how the BGP football rankings are prepared, I am sure one of the moderators will correct the record, but the basketball rankings were prepared as I have described the process.) Although I questioned some of the BGP preseason rankings on the basis of what I see as a NKY bias, the BGP process is far, far better than the process the AP uses. If the NKY bias that I have suggested exists, it will slowly dissipate as the season rolls along. Besides being accountable to each other and theguru, the BGP voters have to face vocal eastern Kentucky critics ever day.:lol: The problems faced by the AP voters will persist into the playoff season.

Scribe, As usual, you did a nice job analyzing and presenting the data. A couple of things that I don't think you addressed, however, is the sheer magnitude of the discrepancy between the two systems in the cases of both Lloyd and Bellvue, and the fact that BGP ranks all of the NKY teams at either the same rank (Highlands), or higher. By mid-season, I expect the BGP ranks and those in the AP to be very similar, but where differences remain, the BGP numbers will be better thought out and a more accurate predictor of future games. It's in the rankings for the preseason and first few weeks of the season where I believe a northern Kentucky bias is apparent in the BGP rankings. However, although the bar is set at different heights for early season entry into the top 10, BGP does recognize deserving teams as they prove themselves on the field during the season, regardless of their geographic locations. BTW, I have an alternate take on the following observation: Two of the three teams with the biggest 'BGP bias' when compared to the AP poll are from northern Kentucky, Lloyd and Bellvue. Furthermore, four of the nine teams with the biggest 'BGP bias' hail from northern Kentucky (vs. only 3 CKY teams). Both statements are true, both describe the same set of numbers, and each characterizes the facts in a totally different light. Artists call it perspective and politicians describe it as putting a positive spin on the data. I don't think the data indicates more of a BGP central Kentucky bias at all, but I guess it all depends on the conclusion that one wants to reach.

If you can convince a majority of the good people of Richmond and Madison County that they live in eastern Kentucky, then I will hop on your bandwagon, Oxnard. I guess where you draw that elusive boundary that separates eastern Kentucky from central Kentucky depends on how badly you want to make a point (you do seem pretty desperate to make your point). No offense to Madison Countians, but I just have a hard time thinking of them as mountain folk. I am surprised that you have not mentioned that Richmond is home to Eastern Kentucky University. Surely politicians would not have built a university for eastern Kentuckians and located it in central Kentucky. Would they?:lol: BTW, wouldn't designating Ft. Thomas as a part of eastern Kentucky make your point even better? They have hills (i.e., small mountains), the school is located almost as far east as Madison Central, and the people of Ft. Thomas were so proud of their mountains that they named their school "Highlands." Besides, giving up Highlands to eastern Kentucky would still leave northern Kentucky with plenty of quality high school football teams.

You can consider Madison Central an eastern Kentucky team if you want, but I don't think you will find many people who will agree with you. On the other hand, if Richmond is far enough "east" for Madison Central to be considered an eastern Kentucky team, then if we move the dividing line just a few miles west, we could claim most of those good NKY teams as eastern Kentucky teams as well.

My exclusion of 4A in the comparison is because neither EKY or NKY is currently represented in the AP poll. There were no 4A teams to list, so I didn't list any. If you see that as an inconsistency, then run with it. At no time have I ever accused the BGP voters of consciously tilting the rankings in favor of the NKY teams. I know how many hours of work it takes to put together the BGP Rankings, and I enjoy discussing the results.

Watusi, Excellent point about Sheldon Clark. I thought they warranted a top 3 preseason rank, but you are correct in pointing out that they were not ranked lower because of a NKY bias. I think we need to have the benefit of a little more hindsight to understand how bad the Cards loss to Lawrence County was, and how unimpressive the win over Bourbon was. I suspect that Lawrence County will make a lot of good teams look pretty bad this season. At the risk of locking up the Dead Horse Award (if the nag is not already mine), I have summarized the BGP rankings' favorable treatment of the NKY teams below. I made the comparison because it has always seemed to me that there has been a northern Kentucky "flavor" to the rankings. Here are the totals for all the NKY teams in BGP, with the rank differential for each: Class A Beechwood +1 Covington Holy Cross +3 Bellvue +11 Class AA Lloyd +10 Class AAA Highlands SAME Covington Catholic +4 By my count, BGP has 5 out of 6 teams ranked higher than the AP, and one team ranked the same. More telling, IMO, is the fact that the 6 NKY teams are ranked 29 places higher on BGP than in the AP polls, a whopping average of nearly 5 places per team. I thought the difference was interesting. Maybe the difference is, as Oldbird asserted, simply due to the fact that the AP voters don't know good football teams when they see them. If that is the reason for the difference, the NKY teams seem to be getting badly shortchanged by the AP.

Excellent post. The point that I was trying to make to Oldbird about Sheldon Clark is that they were a young team and gave Bell County a pretty good playoff game on the road. Their returning players, plus their drop to 2A this season should have placed them a little higher in the BGP preseason rankings. I am glad to see Bell County off to such a good start. I still don't know what the halftime score was for last season's match-up between Bell County and Sheldon Clark, but Coach Hilton was either being a very gracious winner, or he thought the Cards had put up a good fight. While Ashland cruised in the first round, Bell County drew a tougher assignment. The Bobcats got past Sheldon Clark 29-21 after holding a 22-point lead with less than six minutes remaining. "We had more of a rough time,'' Hilton said. "Their quarterback (Nathan Moore) came back from an injury. We didn't expect him to play, but they had him wearing a different number. He was 16-for-22 passing and had several nice runs.'' My recollection is that Sheldon Clark held their own for a half, with Bell County dominating the third and most of the fourth quarter, before the Cards rallied to close the gap late. Maybe Bell County was never in any serious trouble in the game, but I thought that Nathan Moore and the junior-dominated Cards put up a respectable fight. I didn't realize that the Bell County game was Moore's first game back after being sidelined with a fracture.

Do you recall the halftime score? My recollection is that Sheldon Clark remained within striking distance for much of the game before being worn down by a very physical Bell County team.

Oldbird, Your response does not accurately reflect my posts at all. Let me clarify for you. First, wins and losses are not more important strength of schedule. You raised the subject of CovCath's games against Dixie and DeSales, not me. CovCath was dominated in both cases. I don't think getting pummelled by superior teams necessarily means that the loser has a stellar team. Do you? Next, when you say that "that is probably why you like the AP..." you are attempting to attribute a sentiment to me that I don't hold. If you want to reread my posts carefully, you will see nothing in them that is complimentary about the AP's football polls. In case you don't get that after another read, then please rest assured, given the choice between the BGP ranking and the AP poll, I would take the BGP poll every time. That does not mean that there is no regional bias in the BGP rankings, or that the process cannot be improved. You apparently missed the fact that Lawrence County played most of the season saddled with serious injuries to key players. Evidently you also don't believe that having talented players like Short and Storts sit out most of last season, while some inexperienced younger players were pressed into service as starters, should have a positive impact on this season's team. I disagree. Had Lawrence County been healthy last season, I would agree that a 7-3 record was pretty unimpressive. Had the Bulldogs suffered heavy graduation losses after last season, I would agree that they did not deserve to be ranked in this year's preseason rankings. Instead, Lawrence County is returning a much deeper and experienced team than would have been the case had Short, Stort, and the other starters been healthy for a full season. I don't think that factor was given sufficient weight in your preseason rankings. Sorry, but I don't see how you could draw this conclusion. I wasted my time writing pages if my entire argument is summarized in the quote above. Maybe you just skimmed over the other points that I made. Russell was unranked in last year's preseason rankings, and remain so for several weeks into last season. I was nearly alone in calling for Russell to be ranked after they nearly beat Ashland Blazer on the road. I may be mistaken, but I don't think the Red Devils cracked the top 10 until after they beat Mason County the first time, and then they barely broke in. I think after losing to a tough Portsmouth West team at home, they may have actually dropped. As the season wears on, it becomes much easier to separate the wheat from the chaf. The fact that Russell was ranked where they deserved by the end of the year does nothing to dispel the perception that the early rankings seem to contain some regional bias. See notes above. The signs were there, and had the Bulldogs had Boone County addresses, they would have been touted as a contender. I am not saying that the Bulldogs will win a state title this season, but if they go deep in the playoffs this season, it should not come as a shock either. Thank you for at least partially conceding one point to me. The Cards may not have the team speed to go all the way, but I still expect them to be a top contender at the end of the season. They are playing a pretty decent schedule, so they may enter the playoffs with a worse record than last season, but they should be a better team by year's end. I don't really support a team (in Kentucky), at least not enough to qualify as anybody's fan. I was dissatisfied with my sons' experience at Johnson Central, and my youngest son is playing for a 4A team in central Indiana this season. I would like to see the Golden Eagles turn things around for the kids' sake, but I doubt that I will ever spend money on a ticket to watch another of their games. So, if you have me pegged as a rabid Bulldog or SC Cardinal fan, you are very mistaken. I just like to see teams and players get all the recognition they deserve. I believe that being in the BGP Top 10 during the season is an honor, and I was just disappointed to see a couple of very deserving teams (IMO) from eastern Kentucky left out at the onset of the season. I have no hidden agenda, although I am sure that I have my share of personal biases. I would not be human if I didn't.

I feel your pain.:lol: It is hard to argue with the 1A rankings, because the NKY 1A teams, along with Danville and Mayfield usually play at another level than the rest of the state. Beyond those teams, there is a lot of parity around the state, and most 1A teams do not travel very far to play. That makes it difficult to know what to do with a (non-Mayfield) WKY 1A team and an EKY team having similar records. I sympathize with anybody trying to rank the 6-10 1A teams.

I don't put much store in scrimmages. I witnessed Johnson Central outplay Belfry twice (badly in one case), then watched Belfry have good seasons, while JC's program spun out of control. Belfry would have crushed them by mid-season in both cases. I also watched JC play even with Holmes' first team a couple of years ago. Had they played a regular midseason game, it would have been a laugher. I agree that Sheldon Clark has stumbled out of the gate. I have heard from people who have seen them play that they may lack the team speed to carry them to a regional title. Time will tell, but I think last year's strong performance in 3A and the number of returning seniors should have earned them a lofty preseason ranking. If 2A is actually as weak as many people believe this season, I can't imagine that SC will not be a top 3 or top 5 team at the end of the season. Lawrence County is loaded, and the win over the Cards is a good indication of the Bulldogs' strength. Sheldon Clark might have taken the Bourbon County for granted, but there is no way Matney's team was looking past the Bulldogs. The Bulldogs should also roll over a good Belfry team, but there are few easy wins for visitors to Pond Creek:D

When it comes to football knowledge, I will be the first to admit that I am not in the same league as the BGP team that puts together the rankings. I will also never argue that EKY football teams are as a rule, better than NKY teams. The quality of football on a year-in-year-out basis is not even close. However, northern Kentucky football did not seem to tower over the eastern part of the state last season in either 2A or 3A. On the contrary, Rockcastle's domination of Catholic, Mason's blowout of Lloyd, and the strong showings by Russell, Belfry, and Breathitt indicated to me that last season was not a vintage year for NKY football. I thought the results of last season suggested that the gap has closed substantially between NKY and EKY football in 3A, and that the chasm between EKY and NKY in 2A remains deep and wide. The preseason BGP rankings made me wonder if some folks don't still have calendars hanging on their walls from the 90's.

OB, Seriously, the results that you listed do not really help your case. Dixie shut out CovCath 28-0, DeSales beat them 34-6 in a game that was not nearly that close, and despite what everybody thought about its strength, Lexington Catholic fell to a Highlands team that in turn was hammered by Rockcastle. If anything, last season's results suggested that Rockcastle might have emerged from a tougher region than anybody understood going into last season. I remember noting in the middle of last season that Covington Catholic had proven that they could take a beating, but did they actually upset anybody last season? As for Lloyd, I don't think many Jugs fans expected the season to end on the short end of a blowout loss (49-21) against a team that would fall to Russell twice. I also remember some of my NKY friends downplaying Russell's tough losses to Ashland and Portsmouth West, as well as its first win over Mason County, before belatedly moving them near the top of the 2A rankings. Another thing that I remember is that a young Sheldon Clark team battled Bell County down to the wire on the road before losing 29-21 and finishing 7-3. I remember that Sheldon Clark's other losses were a double-overtime setback to a then-healthy Lawrence County team, and a loss at Boyd County in a game that the Card's starting QB played with a fracture most of the game. With the core of that SC team returning for its senior season, I could not help noticing how little value BGP voters placed on the Lawrence County Bulldogs 31-0 win over them last week. Sheldon Clark and Lawrence County may turn out to be huge disappointments this season. However, headed into this season there was ample reason to believe that both would contend for state titles this year. The bar just seems to be set a little higher for EKY teams to enter the top echelon of the rankings than it is for NKY teams such as Highlands, CC, and Lloyd.

Did you bother to compare the AP poll to the BGP rankings, OB? If so, did you find even a single instance where BGP ranked a NKY team lower than the AP? I had not seen the AP poll, I just took a wild guess that BGP would have picked NKY teams higher early in the season, and I was right. If the NKY bias is a product of my own mind, maybe I am psychic. Move over Miss Cleo!:lol: