Reds @ Blue Jays (5/29-5/31)

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  1. #61
    spindoc's Avatar
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    I love the Reds. I hate the Reds.
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  2. #62
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    Quote Originally Posted by jpa2825 View Post
    Assume that is his actual batting average. Assume Sumo was asking about getting that runner home. 75% is good for that stat. If his other 5 ABs are Ks, 50% rate of getting runner home from 3B with < 2 out is not very good.
    Why are we assuming anything? @sumoroyal posted that Billy Hamilton can't put the bat on the ball with a runner on 3rd & less than 2 outs. I posted Hamilton's stats with a runner on 3rd and less than two (2) outs, which is the exact situation sumo mentioned. Hamilton has "not put the bat on the ball" two times.

    Hamilton has 10 official at bats with a runner on 3rd & less than 2 outs. He has struck out twice. He has 5 hits -- 1 home run & 4 singles. He has 9 RBI's total.

    I can't complain about that.

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    Quote Originally Posted by nkypete View Post
    I'd love to have a crack at it, but yesterday I was doing a "high five" with one of my teammates in the minor leagues and we hit heads (mainly because we couldn't get our arms up that high). I'm on concussion protocol until next week.
    Sometimes you only get one shot at The Show. You may have just blown yours. It's all yours @UKMustangFan.

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    Quote Originally Posted by ColonelCrazy View Post
    Why are we assuming anything? @sumoroyal posted that Billy Hamilton can't put the bat on the ball with a runner on 3rd & less than 2 outs. I posted Hamilton's stats with a runner on 3rd and less than two (2) outs, which is the exact situation sumo mentioned. Hamilton has "not put the bat on the ball" two times.

    Hamilton has 10 official at bats with a runner on 3rd & less than 2 outs. He has struck out twice. He has 5 hits -- 1 home run & 4 singles. He has 9 RBI's total.

    I can't complain about that.
    We are "assuming" because it appears that you answered a slightly different question than Sumo alluded to. There is a stat (not official, I am sure) that asks for how many times a batter gets a runner on 3B with < 2 outs home. From the information given, we still don't appear to know about 3 ABs (1 HR, 4 singles, 2 Ks). If he popped up 3x on the IF, his % of getting runners home would be 50% which, as I said, is not very good. If he hit 3 deep fly balls that the runner tagged and scored on, he would be at 80% which is VERY good.

    We all know it is an imprecise metric (IF drawn in, slow v. fast runner on 3B, hard smash to corner IF v. slow dribbler to middle IF, etc.), but baseball is full of those. The point Sumo was making was that you have a job to do when you come to the plate with a runner on 3B and < 2 out. Do what it takes to get that job done and the run in.

  5. #65
    UKMustangFan's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by jpa2825 View Post
    We are "assuming" because it appears that you answered a slightly different question than Sumo alluded to. There is a stat (not official, I am sure) that asks for how many times a batter gets a runner on 3B with < 2 outs home. From the information given, we still don't appear to know about 3 ABs (1 HR, 4 singles, 2 Ks). If he popped up 3x on the IF, his % of getting runners home would be 50% which, as I said, is not very good. If he hit 3 deep fly balls that the runner tagged and scored on, he would be at 80% which is VERY good.

    We all know it is an imprecise metric (IF drawn in, slow v. fast runner on 3B, hard smash to corner IF v. slow dribbler to middle IF, etc.), but baseball is full of those. The point Sumo was making was that you have a job to do when you come to the plate with a runner on 3B and < 2 out. Do what it takes to get that job done and the run in.
    He has 1 SF. At a minimum, he's brought the runner in 60% of the time.

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    Billy has 12 PA with a runner on 3rd and less than two outs.

    6 times he has produced an RBI.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Clyde View Post
    Billy has 12 PA with a runner on 3rd and less than two outs.

    6 times he has produced an RBI.
    Not great, but also not what he is asked to do primarily.

    I would really like to see this statistic quantified and tracked. There are a ton of situations that would have to be addressed to make it uniform:

    A - Runner on 3B only or runners on 2B & 3B and batter draws a walk or is HBP? I say 0-0. Can't be 1-1 b/c he didn't get the run home, but it shouldn't be 0-1 b/c he did a good thing offensively in that situation.
    B - What if in the middle of the AB a runner on 2B advances to 3B (SB, WP, PB, Balk, etc.)? If it's 0-2 already and he doesn't get the runner home, that's a very tough 0-1.
    C - What if the runner on 3B scores on a SB, WP, PB, Balk, etc. during the AB? Assume that is an 0-0 as well.

    Just some fun stats that I'm sure some seam-head has already thought through.

  8. #68
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    So if 50% isn't great what is the league average in that situation?

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    Quote Originally Posted by HammerTime View Post
    So if 50% isn't great what is the league average in that situation?
    Very limited statistical analysis (basically the UofL baseball radio guy announces the player's stats in these situations - not sure if he keeps them himself OR gets them from the UofL internal statkeepers) and a ton of games watched at all levels, but I'd say 50% and below is bad, 50-65% is acceptable and > 65% is good. The fact that it is either a stat that is not kept OR one that is not circulated widely prevents much more than anecdotal comparison.

  10. #70
    HammerTime's Avatar
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    League averages

    .324 .368 .509 .877

    3097 Plate appearances
    767 Hits
    1900 RBI
    582 Strikeouts
    .332 BABIP

  11. #71
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    Billy Hamilton

    .455 .417 .727 1.144

    12 PA
    5 H
    9 RBI
    3 Strikeouts
    .500 BABIP

    I'm not sure what more you expect.

  12. #72
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    Quote Originally Posted by HammerTime View Post
    Billy Hamilton

    .455 .417 .727 1.144

    12 PA
    5 H
    9 RBI
    3 Strikeouts
    .500 BABIP

    I'm not sure what more you expect.
    Should have success 100% of the time!

  13. #73
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    Quote Originally Posted by HammerTime View Post
    Billy Hamilton

    .455 .417 .727 1.144

    12 PA
    5 H
    9 RBI
    3 Strikeouts
    .500 BABIP

    I'm not sure what more you expect.
    Damn it...stats again.

  14. #74

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    Quote Originally Posted by HammerTime View Post
    Billy Hamilton

    .455 .417 .727 1.144

    12 PA
    5 H
    9 RBI
    3 Strikeouts
    .500 BABIP

    I'm not sure what more you expect.
    His slash line is well above the league average. That is great and encouraging for his production. It is, however, an imprecise measure of his effectiveness in those situations where you're looking not just for hits but also productive outs to bring in that runner.

    Based on the above, it appears he has 5 H, 1 SF and 3 K in the 12 PA. 3 PA results are unknown. At worst, he "performed" in 6 of the 12 PA (50%). At best, he "performed" in 9 of the 12 PA (75%). Given such a small sample size, it's hard to put much stock in either extreme.

    Hamilton aside, if I am a manager and any of my players fails to get the runner home from 3B with < 2 out >50% of the time, I am going to be disappointed. If he gets the runner home >75% of the time, I'm going to be happy.

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