Way Too Early Class 3A Playoff Projections

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    Way Too Early Class 3A Playoff Projections

    For the first time since 2007, Class 3A will use a cross-bracketing procedure in the postseason. The KHSAA implemented this plan during the offseason but many are likely unaware who is playing who in the playoffs. This thread intends to outline the bracket and project favorites and contenders in each position. (Rankings listed are from the most recent Bluegrasspreps rankings)

    REGION I
    District 1 vs. District 2

    Favorite: #3 Elizabethtown
    Contenders: #7 Caldwell County; #10 Paducah Tilghman
    Look Out For: Larue County; Union County; Edmonson County

    Elizabethtown has shown themselves to be the clear favorite in this region. The two-time defending region champion Panthers are undefeated thus far. Caldwell County has perhaps exceeded expectations while questions still abound concerning Tilghman. Larue, Union, and Edmonson are all undefeated.

    REGION II
    District 4 vs. District 5

    Favorite: #5 Lexington Catholic
    Contenders: #6 Boyle County; #9 Fleming County
    Look Out For: #8 Western Hills; Russell; Garrard County

    It is hard to declare a true favorite in this region, what with traditional rivals Lexington Catholic and Boyle County having not yet played, but we'll give the nod to the Knights. Catholic wins over Madison Central and Lafayette were impressive and no one in this region is as good as the Covington Catholic club that demolished LexCath. Boyle County is certainly a contender and Western Hills may have the best running back in the state. Fleming County is a surprise but has some injury concerns.

    REGION III
    District 3 vs. District 6

    Favorite: #4 Central
    Contender: #2 Belfry
    Look Out For: Waggener; Lawrence County; Floyd Central

    It probably is a two-horse race for this crown and the two horses are incredibly familiar with each other. Central and Belfry have met in five of the last seven state championship games, with Central winning three but Belfry claiming the last two. A matchup this season would be two rounds earlier in the regional final and, assuming they are both number one seeds, would be at Central. That's why I give the Yellowjackets an early edge, although Philip Haywood's Pirates won't be an easy out come November. Waggener is loaded with talent, while Lawrence County and Floyd Central have shown the ability to run the football.

    REGION IV
    District 7 vs. District 8

    Favorite: #1 Corbin
    Contender: Casey County
    Look Out For: Bell County; Estill County

    Corbin is the clear-cut favorite at this point, having recently secured the top spot in the rankings with impressive wins over Alcoa (TN) and Pulaski County. Casey County is right on the edge of the rankings and gave Corbin all they could handle for three quarters in last season's regional final. Bell County seems revitalized under coach Dudley Hilton, but we'll have to see where they are when the competition heats up. Estill County is probably the best team in an extremely weak District 7.

    *-Reminder: Since 2017 is an odd year, if two teams with the same seed meet in the regional final, the team from the odd district would host.

    SEMIFINALS
    Since 2017 is an odd year, the winner of Region II would travel to Region I, while the winner of Region IV would play at the champion of Region III. If the season ended today (fortunately for us it doesn't), Lexington Catholic would travel to Elizabethtown while Corbin would visit Central on Thanksgiving Friday.

    How do you think it will play out?
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    Wireman's Avatar
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    Congrats to Belfry on the title!

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    Until something drastic happens whoever wins between Central and Belfry will most likely be your 3A state champions.

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    The winner of that possible Belfry/Central matchup would also host the semifinal game against presumably Corbin.

    That home field advantage may turn out to be a big factor.

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    Belfry in a walk

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    I wouldn't say Belfry in a walk. Central is going to be hard to beat. I don't know who would have the edge I. That game.

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    Rumors are that a couple 2A powers will be moving up to 3A next year.

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    Quote Originally Posted by SpartansBasketball View Post
    Rumors are that a couple 2A powers will be moving up to 3A next year.
    Wouldn't be until the next year (2019). We're in year three of a four year alignment.

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    I expect Class 3A to look completely different come the next alignment.

    Just a look at last year's program shows that CAL was playing the 2A Championship with a considerably larger enrollment than Belfry who was in the 3A Championship.

    Corbin most likely will go up in class to 4A, expect Belfry to drop down, and I think you will see a couple notable 2A schools move up.

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    So based on last weekends games, what changes would be made?

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    Boyle County is a team I think can beat any team in 3A. I wouldn't want to play them in the playoffs.

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    Quote Originally Posted by 85_Rebel View Post
    So based on last weekends games, what changes would be made?
    I think Elizabethtown and Corbin are still favorites in their respective regions.

    I'd put Boyle ahead of Lexington Catholic (they weren't far behind to start with).

    I'm still giving Central the edge over Belfry for one more week based solely on hypothetical home field advantage.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Statsdontlie View Post
    Boyle County is a team I think can beat any team in 3A. I wouldn't want to play them in the playoffs.
    The negative for Boyle County (and, I guess, Lexington Catholic, Western Hills, and Garrard County) is if you win District 4, you are only guaranteed home games for the first two rounds. A third round matchup could take you to Russell or Fleming County and a semifinal game is out west. Boyle County has lost four of their last five road playoff games.

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    Quote Originally Posted by gchs_uk9 View Post
    The negative for Boyle County (and, I guess, Lexington Catholic, Western Hills, and Garrard County) is if you win District 4, you are only guaranteed home games for the first two rounds. A third round matchup could take you to Russell or Fleming County and a semifinal game is out west. Boyle County has lost four of their last five road playoff games.
    Great stat about Boyle I doubt many know.

    How would you predict the outcome of District 5, I know absolutely nothing about any of these teams.

    Fleming County: 3-0
    Pendleton County: 3-1
    West Carter: 2-1
    Bath County: 2-1
    Lewis County: 1-2
    Russell: 0-3

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    Fleming and Russell are top two. Fleming has looked better this year, but Russell is traditionally better.

    I'd say Bath and West Carter are 3/4 in some order.

    Pendleton and Lewis both seem improved but I'm not sure they're playoff caliber.

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