Jan 14, 18, 12:51 AM #1
Prediction: District AlignmentsFirst, this is only a prediction. Teams will have the option of playing up, and if several make that choice, it will blow this prediction to smithereens. I am simply making an educated guess based on past alignments, geography, distance between schools, and a desire to have all (or almost all) districts have at least four teams. If this isn't how it ultimately works out, please don't quote this post when you complain!
District 1 - Crittenden County, Fulton City, Fulton County, Russellville
District 2 - Bethlehem, Campbellsville, Caverna, Fort Knox
District 3 - Eminence, Frankfort, Kentucky Country Day, Louisville Holy Cross, Trimble County
District 4 - Bellevue, Dayton, Ludlow, Newport Central Catholic
District 5 - Berea, Bishop Brossart, Nicholas County, Paris
District 6 - Fairview, Paintsville, Raceland
District 7 - Harlan, Lynn Camp, Pineville, Williamsburg
District 8 - Hazard, Jenkins, Phelps, Pikeville
For postseason competition in Class 1A, fifth place in District 3 plays as the fourth place team in District 6
District 1 - Ballard Memorial, Caldwell County, Fort Campbell, Mayfield, Murray
District 2 - Butler County, Edmonson County, Hancock County, McLean County, Owensboro Catholic, Todd County Central
District 3 - Clinton County, Green County, Metcalfe County, Monroe County, Washington County
District 4 - Danville, Lexington Christian, Middlesboro, Somerset
District 5 - Carroll County, Gallatin County, Owen County, Shawnee, Walton-Verona
District 6 - Beechwood, Bracken County, Covington Holy Cross, Lloyd Memorial, Newport
District 7 - Bath County, Betsy Layne, Prestonsburg, Sheldon Clark, West Carter
District 8 - Breathitt County, East Ridge, Knott County Central, Leslie County, Shelby Valley
District 1 - Paducah Tilghman, Trigg County, Union County, Webster County
District 2 - Adair County, Elizabethtown, Glasgow, Hart County, Larue County, Taylor County
District 3 - Bardstown, Central, Christian Academy-Louisville, DeSales, Nelson County, Thomas Nelson
District 4 - Boyle County, Garrard County, Henry County, Mercer County, Pendleton County, Western Hills
District 5 - Bell County, Casey County, Jackson County, McCreary Central
District 6 - Estill County, Magoffin County, Morgan County, Powell County
District 7 - East Carter, Fleming County, Greenup County, Lewis County, Mason County, Russell
District 8 - Belfry, Floyd Central, Lawrence County, Pike County Central
District 1 - Calloway County, Hopkins County Central, Madisonville-North Hopkins
District 2 - Allen County-Scottsville, Franklin-Simpson, Warren Central, Warren East
District 3 - Breckinridge County, John Hardin, Moore, Valley, Waggener, Western
District 4 - Franklin County, Marion County, North Oldham, Shelby County, Spencer County
District 5 - Bourbon County, Harrison County, Highlands, Holmes, Scott
District 6 - Ashland, Boyd County, Frederick Douglass, Lexington Catholic, Rowan County
District 7 - East Jessamine, Lincoln County, Rockcastle County, Russell County, Wayne County
District 8 - Clay County, Corbin, Harlan County, Knox Central, Letcher County Central, Perry County Central
For postseason competition in Class 4A, fifth place in District 3 plays as the fourth place team in District 1
District 1 - Christian County, Graves County, Hopkinsville, Ohio County, Owensboro
District 2 - Barren County, Bowling Green, Grayson County, Greenwood, Logan County, South Warren
District 3 - Bullitt Central, Collins, North Bullitt, South Oldham
District 4 - Atherton, Doss, Fairdale, Iroquois, Jeffersontown, Seneca
District 5 - Boone County, Conner, Cooper, Covington Catholic, Grant County
District 6 - Great Crossing, Johnson Central, Montgomery County, Scott County
District 7 - Anderson County, Madison Southern, West Jessamine, Woodford County
District 8 - North Laurel, Pulaski County, South Laurel, Southwestern, Whitley County
District 1 - Apollo, Daviess County, Henderson County, Marshall County, McCracken County
District 2 - Central Hardin, Meade County, Muhlenberg County, North Hardin
District 3 - Butler, DuPont Manual, Pleasure Ridge Park, St. Xavier
District 4 - Bullitt East, Fern Creek, Male, Southern
District 5 - Ballard, Eastern, Oldham County, Trinity
District 6 - Campbell County, Dixie Heights, Ryle, Simon Kenton
District 7 - Bryan Station, Henry Clay, Paul Dunbar
District 8 - George Rogers Clark, Lafayette, Madison Central, Tates Creek
For postseason competition in Class 6A, fifth place in District 1 plays as the fourth place team in District 7Advertisement
Jan 14, 18, 12:52 AM #2Points of interest:
-In Class 1A, I'm predicting Bishop Brossart to continue playing in District 5 with their 10th Region brethren. They could easily be moved in with the four northern Kentucky schools, however. Class 1A looks very similar to how it has been drawn up in the past.
-In Class 2A, the addition of a few new eastern Kentucky schools means Danville/LCA/Somerset will no longer have to travel such long distances in the playoffs. Finding an appropriate place for Bath County and West Carter was difficult and they've both played up during the last two cycles. I suspect they'll do it again this time.
-In Class 3A, Pendleton County was almost impossible to place. Using this Time Calculator showed that it is one minute shorter on average from Falmouth to the schools in District 4 than those in District 7. Therefore Pendleton is shifted more toward central Kentucky.
-In Class 4A, unless someone plays up I don't see a situation where District 1 isn't a three-team group. With six teams in District 3, I've given their fifth place team a spot in the playoffs as the four seed in District 1. Since Districts 1 and 2 will always play in the playoffs, it makes sense to give the open spot to District 3 to minimize travel.
-Also in Class 4A, shifting the two Lexington schools east wasn't easy, especially with possible opponents in three neighboring counties. In order to make the alignment work and avoid four team districts as often as possible, the only real solution was to place them with Ashland, Boyd, and Rowan.
-In Class 5A, Johnson Central sticks out like a sore thumb. I placed them with Montgomery County and the two Scott County schools because it is easier travel and believe it or not, it is closer from Paintsville to those three locations than to any of the schools in District 7 (Anderson, Madison Southern, West Jessamine, Woodford) or District 8 (Laurels, Pulaskis, Whitley County).
-In Class 6A, the addition of a couple new western Kentucky teams and the subtraction of two central Kentucky teams complicated matters somewhat. My solution was to put five teams in District 1 with the fifth place team playing a long first round road game in Lexington. I'm not sure what else could be done.
Jan 14, 18, 12:52 AM #3Again, this is simply a prediction. I don't know who will play up. Once that information is known then everything, something, or nothing could change. We'll have to wait and see.
Jan 14, 18, 02:03 AM #4
With marshall's lack of success in 5A, would they have to move up? That would make district 1 and 2 both have 6 teams. Apollo might not be ready for what's coming their way either. They had a special season last year, but they graduated key people and they have no coach. They could easily revert back to the 2-9 team they've been. The Apollo Daviess County game would take on a seriousness I haven't seen since the days of the Big eight conference. Wow, yes, that's old.
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Jan 14, 18, 02:16 AM #5
With all the debate about playing up, where do you have Highlands if they decide to go to 5A? I see you've listed them as playing 4A. If they went to district 5, that would put 6 teams in district 5 with 4 teams in district 6.
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Jan 14, 18, 08:07 AM #6
If your prediction is right I think that West Carter and Bath County might play 2A this cycle. The travel for District 7 2A would be shorter distance wise for West Carter. Also I would rather do district play with Betsy Layne, Prestonsburg, Sheldon Clark, and Bath County, oppose to NKY Teams. I think this District set up give a competitive chance for each team to have a shot at a District Title each year.
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Jan 14, 18, 09:47 AM #7How do districts work with 5 teams? You play 4 district games while everyone else plays 3?
Johnson Central has a history either Laural Co and Pulaski Co schools. I don’t think that will be a factor but it fits them.
It will be nice interesting to see with Boone and a few others stay in 5A or it play up.
Jan 14, 18, 10:10 AM #8
In looking at your 6A prediction I tried my best to find something I didn't like about it but I couldn't. I like going back to 3 4 team districts for Metro Louisville and I like that the "power" is spread out. I really like Male and Manual being in different districts. They could now go back to what used to be the traditional last game of their seasons.
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Jan 14, 18, 01:45 PM #9
If Boyle County stays in 3A then I’d love to see them in a district with Casey County. If Boyle County moves up to 4A the potential district with them, LexCath, Frederick Douglass and East Jessamine could be a possibility.
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Jan 14, 18, 02:59 PM #10
I still wouldn't be surprised to see Fleming and Mason end up in the district with Powell, Estill, etc... They have been there before.
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Jan 14, 18, 03:08 PM #11
Jan 14, 18, 03:52 PM #12
I'm really not going to be happy with the KHSAA if they stick 6A Frederick Douglas in a district with Ashland, one of the smallest 4A schools.
Jan 14, 18, 10:59 PM #13
Jan 14, 18, 11:30 PM #14
Jan 15, 18, 07:37 AM #15
So Bracken County to 2A is for sure?
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