Aug 10, 18, 02:06 AM #1
Opening night forecast - Friday, August 17, 2018This will be the first forecast for opening weekend of high school football in Kentucky. We will be doing this for each week during the season. So let's get to it!
For Friday, August 17, 2018, some will see some rain showers Friday night. Showers and thunderstorms will be possible Friday afternoon. These showers and storms will progress in a southerly direction across the state. The following map shows the progression of the rain from 2 pm Friday to 2 am Saturday EDT.
The 24-hour rainfall accumulations ending 2 am EDT Saturday morning of around 1" in Western Kentucky and along the Tennessee border.
Temps look to be in the low to mid-70s across most of the state of Kentucky. North of I-64 should see temps in from the mid to upper 70s. Some could see temps around 80. This is center around 8 pm EDT.
This is our first forecast and I will be fine tuning it as we get closer.Advertisement
Aug 10, 18, 02:17 AM #2
Aug 10, 18, 02:33 AM #3
Aug 10, 18, 05:53 AM #4
Aug 10, 18, 06:01 PM #5
Aug 10, 18, 07:37 PM #6I will give a detailed update in the morning. Just wanted to touch base with everyone. The threat for rain/thunderstorms is still there for the Friday night games. Two things I'm watching. The heat index may be kind of high for parts of western Kentucky on both Friday and Saturday evening. Heat index could be in the upper 80s to low 90s for Friday night and they could inch a little higher for any games Saturday night. Also on Saturday, for now, the threat for strong to severe storms is there especially west of I-75. Word of caution things could change so keep checking back for updates. I will update at least once a day. As we get closer I will update more frequently especially if the severe weather threat continues for Saturday.
Aug 11, 18, 08:32 AM #7
Saturday morning updateLooks like the first weekend of high school football will be a soggy one. Rain is forecast for the entire weekend. Thunderstorms some of which could be strong to severe could be possible especially west of I-65 on Saturday evening. Temps look to range in the mid to upper 70s around game time on Friday. The games on Saturday could see temps from the mid to upper 70s also. Some could see the 80s, especially in the Louisville western and northern Kentucky areas.
The following is a GFS simulated radar from 2 pm Friday till 2 am EDT Sunday morning.
The rain accumulation totals could be 1-2 inches west of I-65. East of that point totals could reach around an inch.
Take care an have a great Saturday.
Aug 12, 18, 12:49 PM #8
Aug 12, 18, 02:48 PM #9
Sunday afternoon updateThis is the outlook for the opening weekend for high school football. This outlook is centered around 8 pm EDT for both Friday and Saturday.
Temps from the mid to upper-70s with low to mid-80s possible in western Kentucky.
The heat index will also be in the mid to upper 70s for most of Kentucky. Western Kentucky could see heat index from the mid-80s to lower 90s.
Rain is still in the forecast but we are seeing some fluctuations in the amount and exact positioning of the rainfall. The following simulated radar is from 8 am Friday morning till 2 am Saturday morning. By Wednesday we should get a much better read on the rain when the weekend comes into the range of the NAM model.
For Saturday night the east of I-75 look for temps in the mid to upper 70s with low to mid-80s possible for those along the Ohio River and western Kentucky
The heat index could reach from the upper 70s to low 80s around the I-65 corridor. East of I-65 look for the heat index to be in the mid-70s, West of a line from around Henderson southward to around Fort Campbell the heat index could be from the high 80s to lower 90s
Looks like most of the rain for Saturday will be in western Kentucky and along the Tennessee border.
Keep checking back for updates. Thunderstorms are still in the outlook but the strength and coverage are in question.
Last edited by nWo; Aug 12, 18 at 02:58 PM.
Aug 14, 18, 01:59 AM #10
Tuesday morning updateJust wanted to give a quick update. Showers and thunderstorms are still in the forecast for both Friday and Saturday games. Some of the thunderstorms could be strong to marginally severe. One word of note the coverage and strength are still to be determined. The temps could lower some from earlier outlooks for those who are under any of the rain. I'll be able to start getting a good read on everything by Wednesday.
Take care and have a blessed Tuesday.
Aug 14, 18, 03:53 AM #11
In response to an earlier post about there being several scrimmages this weekend. As far as I know scrimmages are over. This Friday-Saturday are real games.
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Aug 14, 18, 06:38 AM #12
Aug 14, 18, 06:57 PM #13
Tuesday evening updateWe are now in the range of the NAM Model for Friday night. Showers and thunderstorms will be possible some of which could be strong to severe. This will be mainly east of the I-65 corridor and for parts of western Kentucky. The following EHI shows the areas that could see the strong storms. The time is from 5 pm Friday evening to 2 am EDT Saturday morning.
This simulated radar is for the same time period.
some could see 24 hr rainfall totals of 2-4" mainly along the Cumberland Parkway.
The heat index will be lower for those under the possible showers and thunderstorms. The heat index around 5 pm EDT will be from the upper 80s to low to mid-90s across most of the state. They should drop to the mid to upper 70s south of I-64. North of I-64 there will be spots that could be in the mid to upper 80s.
I will start twice daily updates tomorrow morning and fine tuning my forecast.. Take care and have a great rest of your Tuesday evening.
Aug 14, 18, 10:27 PM #14
This isn’t looking good at all
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Aug 15, 18, 02:02 AM #15
Wednesday morning updateThe weather trend I've been watching is continuing. Showers and possible thunderstorms are in the forecast for Friday night. Those in western Kentucky could be in for some rough weather. According to the latest NAM runs thunderstorms some of which could be marginal severe will be possible mainly west of I-65. Checking the latest SARS some of the threat could be heavy rains, damaging winds, hail, and tornadoes. Let me reiterate that this is very preliminary and we'll have to keep a watch to see if the severe threat continues. The following is the EHI. It is a 12 hour run from 2 pm EDT Friday to 2 am EDT Saturday morning. It shows that the conditions could be conducive for the formation of strong to severe storms.
The following radar is from 2 pm EDT Friday to 8 am EDT Saturday morning. Heavy rain will be possible for some.
This shows the possible rainfall totals. We will probably see fluctuations in the total amounts but as you can see some may be in for upwards of 4+ inches right around the I-65 corridor and a little west of I-65. The Cincinnati/NKY area could get around 3". The dewpoints will be in the mid-70s west of I-65 and in the low to mid-70s east of there so the moisture will be present for heavy rains.
Check back for an update later today.