Litkenhous Ratings

  1. #1
    Tigerpride94's Avatar
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    Litkenhous Ratings

    https://www.courier-journal.com/stor...gs/1554491002/

    Top 20:
    1. Covington Catholic
    2. Frederick Douglass
    3. Mayfield
    4. Christian Academy of Louisville
    5. Highlands
    6. South Warren
    7. Male
    8. Bowling Green
    9. Boyle County
    10. Scott County
    11. DeSales
    12. St. Xavier
    13. Franklin Simpson
    14. Paducah Tilghman
    15. Owensboro
    16. Trinity
    17. Beechwood
    18. Henry Clay
    19. Southwestern
    20. Johnson Central

    See link above for all teams in every class.

    The theme of these rankings are you better blow people out, especially if you have a weak schedule. I believe that is why Male is rated so low.

    Covington Catholic and Frederick Douglass has been lighting teams up, therefore they are #1 and #2.
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    CAL will most likely have hit to rating next week, since rating shows they should win by 114 over Shawnee. No way they win by that much due to running clock and taking starters out.

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    I think the teams ranked lower than expected probably have played games against really low ranked teams. Regardless of the score, if you have played teams like Doss and Western, they will drag you down even if you beat them 50-0. Those bad teams on the schedule drag the rating down.

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    In the case of strength of schedule, Mayfield will be dropping a little bit in the rankings the next 2 weeks as they play 2 teams that are ranked in the 20's in 2A.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Squirrel View Post
    In the case of strength of schedule, Mayfield will be dropping a little bit in the rankings the next 2 weeks as they play 2 teams that are ranked in the 20's in 2A.
    Even if the Cards put 60 or 70 on each of those teams?

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    Quote Originally Posted by theguru View Post
    Even if the Cards put 60 or 70 on each of those teams?
    Compare the two ratings. If they win by less than what the difference in number is, then they will go down. If they win by more will go up.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Tigerpride94 View Post
    Compare the two ratings. If they win by less than what the difference in number is, then they will go down. If they win by more will go up.
    I thought we learned last year that the number assigned to each team means nothing (other than one team is rated ahead of the other) and the ratings are not a function of score differential.

  8. #8
    theguru's Avatar
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    Here is a good read on this topic from last year:

    Litkenhous Top 10

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    Quote Originally Posted by theguru View Post
    Even if the Cards put 60 or 70 on each of those teams?
    Coach Joe Morris is usually good about taking his foot off the gas pretty early against overmatched teams. Either way it is only a rating and has no real effect on the season. Just something to keep us talking.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Squirrel View Post
    Coach Joe Morris is usually good about taking his foot off the gas pretty early against overmatched teams. Either way it is only a rating and has no real effect on the season. Just something to keep us talking.
    I think a lot of Coach Morris and I was not insinuating he would run up the score.

    Just like last year, I am trying to understand the pile of garbage that is the Litkenhous Ratings.

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    Quote Originally Posted by theguru View Post
    I think a lot of Coach Morris and I was not insinuating he would run up the score.

    Just like last year, I am trying to understand the pile of garbage that is the Litkenhous Ratings.
    I'm right there with you. I enjoy looking at the ratings but don't understand them.

  12. #12
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    Quote Originally Posted by theguru View Post
    I thought we learned last year that the number assigned to each team means nothing (other than one team is rated ahead of the other) and the ratings are not a function of score differential.
    I figured the formula out and it uses margin of victory/loss against each team you’ve played’s rating. Add those performances up and divide by number of games played and that is rating, so seems to me like a point spread.

    Here is example using Trinity:
    Male 112.3 -14
    Jtown 58.1 +65
    STX 115.4 -14
    Eastern 75.2 +45

    Add all those numbers together is 453.

    Divide 453 by 4 games.
    453/4= 113.25

    Lit rating is 113.5 so I was off by 1/4 a point. Simple math to me.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Tigerpride94 View Post
    I figured the formula out and it uses margin of victory/loss against each team you’ve played’s rating. Add those performances up and divide by number of games played and that is rating, so seems to me like a point spread.

    Here is example using Trinity:
    Male 112.3 -14
    Jtown 58.1 +65
    STX 115.4 -14
    Eastern 75.2 +45

    Add all those numbers together is 453.

    Divide 453 by 4 games.
    453/4= 113.25

    Lit rating is 113.5 so I was off by 1/4 a point. Simple math to me.
    I like simple things too but as you can see from the thread last year I was "beat down" by members telling me it isn't 'simple math' although none of those members explained the complicated math to me.

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    I mean really, is this ranking system actually supposed to be taken seriously?

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    Quote Originally Posted by TheDeuce View Post
    I mean really, is this ranking system actually supposed to be taken seriously?
    I think it gives you a rough idea where teams are at. Definitely not perfect. I think it’s better for basketball since they play so many games, so much more data.

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