Is NKY one upset away from having no State Finalist???

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  1. #61

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    Quote Originally Posted by Sandman32
    I'm not buying it. I disagree with paragraph four. We have two of the favorites in NKY right now, if not three.

    Add to that our 4A teams have gotten consistently better. Is this their year again? Who knows. But after being lucky to win one game against the 'ville to knocking them out in round two is a considerable improvement. We all know who I believe should have went to the carpet in 4A last season and what I believe the outcome would have been. Whos to say it won't happen again. An all NKY 4A district has made us stronger. It could happen.

    After last season, I think it's safe to say it's not a given that T and X will meet up in the finals.
    Agree it could happen. It also might not happen.

    Looking quickly at the BGP pre-season rankings (and granted these will not be the same at playoff time) NKY's side of the playoffs has:

    Class A #1 (NKY team) #2 (NKY team) #5, #7, #8
    Class AA #2, #3, #4, #6 (NKY team), #9, #10
    Class AAA #2 (NKY team), #3, #5 (NKY team), #6, #7, #8, #10
    Class AAAA No NKY teams

    And remember in Class A of the #1 and #2 teams only one can advance.
    In Class AAA of the #2 and #5 teams only one can advance.

    So right now NKY would be a heavy favorite in Class A and a slight favorite in Class AAA. Now say all the rankings hold true all season long but CovCath edges Highlands in the playoffs. Now are we need is one upset (Class A) and no NKY team makes the finals.
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  2. #62

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    I am confused at what the point of this conversation has been? Is it that upsets can happen? I knew / know that. Is it that you (APNW) think this year the Northern KY teams are at their most vulnerable? Is it that you think the teams in the Central and Eastern Parts of the state are particularly good?

    I just don't get it. Obviously, it is "possible" that Beechwood, NCC, Newport, Lloyd, CovCath, HHS, Dixie, Conner and Boone are all home by week 2 or 3 of the playoffs. Likely, no, but certainly possible.

    I just don't see the point that is trying to be made, either directly or indirectly.

  3. #63

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    Quote Originally Posted by gametime
    That leaves 1A...
    I covered that (and remember this is the upset class).

    Maybe Lex Christian picks off Beechwood or NCC (or both). Maybe they don't, and maybe NCC beats Beechwood but suffers an critical injury (QB?) in the game and then the starting tailback goes down on the first play of the semi finals.

    Heck maybe Pikeville beats NCC this Friday, NCC beats Beechwood, and Pikeville beats NCC again.

    Upsets happen.

  4. #64
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    Quote Originally Posted by All Play No Work
    Upsets happen.
    When it comes to NKY and putting a Team in the Finals, not very often. You're stretching a long way in a lot of directions to say very little. Yes they CAN happen, but it's called an upset for a reason...

  5. #65

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    Quote Originally Posted by h.s.sportsrbest
    I am confused at what the point of this conversation has been? Is it that upsets can happen? I knew / know that. Is it that you (APNW) think this year the Northern KY teams are at their most vulnerable? Is it that you think the teams in the Central and Eastern Parts of the state are particularly good?

    I just don't get it. Obviously, it is "possible" that Beechwood, NCC, Newport, Lloyd, CovCath, HHS, Dixie, Conner and Boone are all home by week 2 or 3 of the playoffs. Likely, no, but certainly possible.

    I just don't see the point that is trying to be made, either directly or indirectly.

    See one of my posts above but to summerize:

    No dominant/heavy favorite NKY team in Class AAA.
    NKY Class AA doesn't seem to get to the finals.
    Same for NKY AAAA.
    If Class A doesn't make it (one upset) then it is like 2001 and no NKY team makes the final which hasn't happened since 1978.

  6. #66

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    Okay, to follow up, so are you "predicting" this will happen or simply saying it "could" happen?

  7. #67
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    Quote Originally Posted by h.s.sportsrbest
    Okay, to follow up, so are you "predicting" this will happen or simply saying it "could" happen?
    That's what I was getting at, but I like to talk in circles to amuse myself sometimes...



  8. #68

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    Quote Originally Posted by h.s.sportsrbest
    Okay, to follow up, so are you "predicting" this will happen or simply saying it "could" happen?

    I am posing the question (see the title of the thread) is NKY one upset away from not making the finals?

    I think NKY is one loss upset away because other than Class A I would not consider NKY a heavy favorite in any class now and by playoff time it may only take one upset to keep NKY out of the finals for the first time since 1978.

    For example, in 2004 I would have thought Beechwood/NCC in Class A were locks, Highlands in Class AAA was a lock, and Dixie, Conner, Boone et.al had closed the gap on Trinity which turned out to be true but still did not matter.

  9. #69

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    Quote Originally Posted by All Play No Work
    I am posing the question (see the title of the thread) is NKY one upset away from not making the finals?
    Okay, I am posing this question: are you saying it could or it will? Obviously, it could. A lot of things "could" happen between now and Halloween. Louisville "could" get shut out of the 4A State Title game too. I don't think it will happen, but it could.

    I just don't get it, sorry. I don't mean any offense, it just seems strange. Obviously, No. KY "could" get shut out of Louisville this year. They "could" be shut out every year. Now, people have come out in Augusts gone by and predicted this, and I was just wondering if you were taking a similar stance. However, it appears to me that you are simply floating out that it "could" happen. I agree completely!!! It "could" happen.

  10. #70

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    Quote Originally Posted by h.s.sportsrbest
    Okay, I am posing this question: are you saying it could or it will? Obviously, it could. A lot of things "could" happen between now and Halloween. Louisville "could" get shut out of the 4A State Title game too. I don't think it will happen, but it could.

    I just don't get it, sorry. I don't mean any offense, it just seems strange. Obviously, No. KY "could" get shut out of Louisville this year. They "could" be shut out every year. Now, people have come out in Augusts gone by and predicted this, and I was just wondering if you were taking a similar stance. However, it appears to me that you are simply floating out that it "could" happen. I agree completely!!! It "could" happen.
    I floated the question to the masses (Is NKY one upset away from having no state finalist since 1978?) and then stated that I think that yes this year they are. If something happens in Class A, then NKY has a more significant chance than in any recent years of not having a finalist.

    Others have disagreed and think that an NKY Class AAA is a fairly solid choice this year and that NKY Class AA may have a decent chance, and even NKY Class AAAA could pull of their own upset and make it.

    Then we debated back and forth on why we think the way we do and what teams could/should represent NKY at PJCS and what state teams could/should prevent that.

    Kind of the whole premise of the website I thought.

  11. #71

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    Quote Originally Posted by All Play No Work
    Is NKY one upset away from having no state finalist since 1978...and then stated that I think that yes this year they are.
    Thanks. That answers my question. It should be interesting, and it is a long way off, but I like No. KY's chances of having a team on the carpet in both A and AAA.

    As for discussing hypotheticals months in advance being the premise of the site, that isn't for me to speak to. You have certainly been an active addition to BGP, and that is great.

  12. #72
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    Quote Originally Posted by h.s.sportsrbest
    Thanks. That answers my question. It should be interesting, and it is a long way off, but I like No. KY's chances of having a team on the carpet in both A and AAA.

    As for discussing hypotheticals months in advance being the premise of the site, that isn't for me to speak to. You have certainly been an active addition to BGP, and that is great.

  13. #73

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    Quote Originally Posted by h.s.sportsrbest
    Thanks. That answers my question. It should be interesting, and it is a long way off, but I like No. KY's chances of having a team on the carpet in both A and AAA.

    As for discussing hypotheticals months in advance being the premise of the site, that isn't for me to speak to. You have certainly been an active addition to BGP, and that is great.
    It's all good.

    Heck if we didn't discuss hypotheticals months in advance there wouldn't be much to do except over-analyze scrimmages, over-analyze legal wranglings and watch the clock tick down to kickoff.

  14. #74

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    Quote Originally Posted by All Play No Work
    It's all good.

    Heck if we didn't discuss hypotheticals months in advance there wouldn't be much to do except over-analyze scrimmages, over-analyze legal wranglings and watch the clock tick down to kickoff.

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    Quote Originally Posted by leatherneck
    How many times in the last 20 years has an eastern Kentucky school come up here and beaten a northern Kentucky AAA school in the semis? Not very often that's for sure.
    Over the past 30 years, it's happened four times:

    2001 - Rockcastle Co. went on to be defeated by Boyle Co. 49-14

    1991 - Bell Co. went on to defeat Meade Co. 35-13

    1985 - Belfry went on to be defeated by Paducah Tilghman 29-14

    1979 - Belfry went on to be defeated by Franklin Simpson 33-0

    In three of these four years, the eastern bracket has been soundly defeated by the western.

    Draw your own conclusions.

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